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-   -   6/28 (BEL): Suburban & Mother Goose (Gr. I's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23576)

Danzig 06-26-2008 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
It's convenient to keep a horse on their home circuit. I'd probably do the same if I owned Tiago just so all my friends can watch him with me, although I agree that Tiago would destroy the Suburban field.

tiagos owner/trainer etc are west coasters. of course they want to win at home. not everyone thinks the east coast is the place to be.

we usually see the same things said when there are good horses back east, and not much on the west coast. just seems this year there are more horses on the same level out west.

jcs11204 06-26-2008 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
8th (4:43) Mother Goose S. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Hamsa Velasquez C 121 L
2 Proud Spell Saez G 121 L
3 Never Retreat Garcia Alan 121 L
4 Music Note Castellano J J 121 L




Lackluster doesn't even begin to describe the field...

9th (5:15) Suburban H. (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 A. P. Arrow Dominguez R A 118 L
2 Frost Giant Rodriguez R R 114 L
3 Naughty New Yorker Prado E S 114 L
4 Solar Flare (ARG) Saez G 114 FTL
5 Rising Moon Velasquez C 115 L
6 Harlington Velazquez J R 116 L
7 Hunting Desormeaux K J 115 L
8 Merchant Marine Castellano J J 114 L

HOW About some picks ?
goose is tough... the top 2 are both special, but if music note takes crazy money, i will go with proud spell.

frost giant, harlington and merchant marine in the suburban

philcski 06-26-2008 09:06 PM

JCS is right, Tiago could have shipped in to NY and crushed these bums. The older division is shameful right now!!

hoovesupsideyourhead 06-26-2008 09:15 PM

[quote=ateamstupid]Good point. The idea that one of those nags is going to be a Grade I winner makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth. and Music
sounds like WONDER LADY ANN L!! LMFAO

miraja2 06-26-2008 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204
frost giant, harlington and merchant marine in the suburban

I agree with you on Merchant Marine, but probably not the other two.

Merchant Marine / AP Arrow.

Linny 06-26-2008 10:13 PM

When horses are scratched from NW3x races for G1's and it looks like they may have a shot, it's a BAD bunch.

jcs11204 06-26-2008 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
I agree with you on Merchant Marine, but probably not the other two.

Merchant Marine / AP Arrow.



its a race def. worth taking a stab in, i will go 3 deep in pick 4, and it will be the 3 i mentioned above...
the giant shoud like the distance and will be on the lead, and harlington should be strong second back

RolloTomasi 06-27-2008 12:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204
he would be heavy favorite at belmont...
at hollywood he will be lucky to be the 3-4 choice...
a grade 1 is a grade 1, why not ship in and stay for the whitney and woodward, everything in ny looks to be coming up soft, TIAGO COULD BE A BEAST ON THE EAST COAST. he is clearly better on dirt, as his 110 beyer and game victory over Heatseeker proves.

Why is Tiago clearly better on dirt? He beat second rate sprinter King of the Roxy in the Santa Anita Derby (at nearly 30-1) and IIRC wasn't everyone laughing at the prospect of ex-turf horse Heatseeker running even a remotely good race in the Oaklawn precisely because it was on dirt? Tiago only beat him by a head.

Aside from that, you have outclassed efforts in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and BC Classic to hang your hat on as far as his dirt form goes. At least he was placing in the Strub Series all winter despite unfavorable pace scenarios (as opposed to unfavorable surfaces).

Furthermore, when has he done anything in a race beyond 9f? He should have gone in the Met Mile if anything. I suppose the Saratoga races are within his distance range, but I'd be willing to take a stand against him in the Suburban and certainly wouldn't anticipate him winning like an odds-on horse even if he did get it done.

zippyneedsawin 06-27-2008 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush
what the hell is Pletcher doing with Circular Quay?
He was working like clockwork at Churchill for 6 weeks, skipped the Stephen Foster and has been working at belmont the past 3 weeks, assuming for the race on Saturday.

Obviously he's no monster, but in this handicap division, he has to be able to be competitive in a filed like the suburban.

I believe CQ had a sinus infection and is now just back in training. TP was planning on the Foster, but couldn't make it with him.

zippyneedsawin 06-27-2008 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Why is Tiago clearly better on dirt? He beat second rate sprinter King of the Roxy in the Santa Anita Derby (at nearly 30-1) and IIRC wasn't everyone laughing at the prospect of ex-turf horse Heatseeker running even a remotely good race in the Oaklawn precisely because it was on dirt? Tiago only beat him by a head.

Aside from that, you have outclassed efforts in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and BC Classic to hang your hat on as far as his dirt form goes. At least he was placing in the Strub Series all winter despite unfavorable pace scenarios (as opposed to unfavorable surfaces).

Furthermore, when has he done anything in a race beyond 9f? He should have gone in the Met Mile if anything. I suppose the Saratoga races are within his distance range, but I'd be willing to take a stand against him in the Suburban and certainly wouldn't anticipate him winning like an odds-on horse even if he did get it done.

What has Tiago done on synthetic to make you think he's better on the fake stuff?

blackthroatedwind 06-27-2008 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Any thoughts on the 2nd Dutrow horse in there?
Or Harlington?


I think Harlington has a very good chance to trail the field.

jcs11204 06-27-2008 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think Harlington has a very good chance to trail the field.

wrong, who is your pick then ?

RolloTomasi 06-27-2008 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
What has Tiago done on synthetic to make you think he's better on the fake stuff?

Didn't say he was better on that synthetics, but his wins in the Swaps and Goodwood certainly suggest he's more than capable on the stuff in top company (relatively speaking).

Basically, I'm questioning his class more than anything. He's obviously versatile when it comes to surfaces and I don't see any clear evidence that he moves up dramatically on conventional dirt.

Pedigree Ann 06-27-2008 03:19 PM

Even though he doesn't win too terribly often, A.P. Arrow has quite a nice record - on the board in 17 of 23 starts, nearly a million and a half in earnings, has run decently vs good horses. Finished lapped on Asiatic Boy and Well Armed in Dubai, beat Political Force (who won this race last year) going 9f at GP, lapped on Corinithian at 9.5f, 2 behind Invasor in the Donn last year. He's not disgraced himself running vs. G1 winners and if he can get over the trip to Dubai as well as Curlin did, he shouldn't have much trouble with the n2x horses in here.

RolloTomasi 06-27-2008 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
He's not disgraced himself running vs. G1 winners and if he can get over the trip to Dubai as well as Curlin did, he shouldn't have much trouble with the n2x horses in here.

Yes, but when has he asserted his superiority when running against Grade 3 and allowance types?

Aside from the Clark, which I don't recall the race specifically, he's always struck me as a horse that finds a way to lose (or simply not come with a winning bid) no matter what the conditions.

jcs11204 06-27-2008 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Even though he doesn't win too terribly often, A.P. Arrow has quite a nice record - on the board in 17 of 23 starts, nearly a million and a half in earnings, has run decently vs good horses. Finished lapped on Asiatic Boy and Well Armed in Dubai, beat Political Force (who won this race last year) going 9f at GP, lapped on Corinithian at 9.5f, 2 behind Invasor in the Donn last year. He's not disgraced himself running vs. G1 winners and if he can get over the trip to Dubai as well as Curlin did, he shouldn't have much trouble with the n2x horses in here.

he will not win this race. WILL NOT, another clunk up 2 or 3 at best

Indian Charlie 06-27-2008 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204
he will not win this race. WILL NOT, another clunk up 2 or 3 at best

he has a far better chance of winning than perfect drip.

Coach Pants 06-28-2008 01:39 AM

What will post time odds be on Rising Moon?

hockey2315 06-28-2008 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
What will post time odds be on Rising Moon?

Doubt he'll be much with Dutrow and that huge tomlinson. . . 4-1?

Coach Pants 06-28-2008 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Doubt he'll be much with Dutrow and that huge tomlinson. . . 4-1?

Yeah...

Definitely not leaving this one off my tickets.

hockey2315 06-28-2008 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Yeah...

Definitely not leaving this one off my tickets.

Me either. . . he's got a good shot.

CSC 06-28-2008 09:27 AM

Obviously the Suburban came up a little light this year, but atleast from a wagering perspective it is interesting.

KirisClown 06-28-2008 03:57 PM

Beautiful ride by Saez in the Mother Goose...

Betsy 06-28-2008 04:03 PM

The shame is that everyone is going to assume a Proud Spell victory when that shouldn't be the case. Proud Spell would have had her hands full with Music Note, who I could tell had a ton of run in her even on the far turn. Javier was looking back, so he knew how much she had. It's a shame PS had to check, but Music Note is a very good filly, no doubt about it.

ninetoone 06-28-2008 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KirisClown
Beautiful ride by Saez in the Mother Goose...


$20 to place on Never Retreat...wow.

KirisClown 06-28-2008 04:22 PM

What a day.. now Rudy Rodriguez wins on Frost Giant...

ArlJim78 06-28-2008 04:23 PM

whoa nelly!! Frost Giant lights it up.

TheSpyder 06-28-2008 04:24 PM

Today is:
 
:zz: :zz: :zz: :zz:

Pedigree Ann 06-28-2008 04:24 PM

Set a soft pace, and the pace horses stay up front.
24.80 48.55 is all it took. I thought those horses would run each other into the ground, but they backed up the pace nicely.

Kasept 06-28-2008 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KirisClown
What a day.. now Rudy Rodriguez wins on Frost Giant...

Absolutely great that Rudy Rodriguez will forever be on the list of Suburban winning jockeys.. He works hard every morning galloping and deserves a moment likes this and the $24,000 check that goes with it...

Pedigree Ann 06-28-2008 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Aside from the Clark, which I don't recall the race specifically, he's always struck me as a horse that finds a way to lose (or simply not come with a winning bid) no matter what the conditions.

You were right. This time he acted up in the gate and broke in the air, falling back to a distant last behind a slow pace. No way a horse with his [ahem] determination level was going to make up that ground.

justindew 06-28-2008 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Absolutely great that Rudy Rodriguez will forever be on the list of Suburban winning jockeys.. He works hard every morning riding workers and deserves a moment likes this and the $24,000 check that goes with it...

In a related story, Frost Giant is now a Grade I winner, and will forever be on the list of Suburban winners.

King Glorious 06-28-2008 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
In a related story, Frost Giant is now a Grade I winner, and will forever be on the list of Suburban winners.

Today was the first time I've ever heard that horse's name.

Indian Charlie 06-28-2008 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Today was the first time I've ever heard that horse's name.

I'm pretty sure that the Giant's Causeway fanboy has mentioned him.

jcs11204 06-28-2008 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
I'm pretty sure that the Giant's Causeway fanboy has mentioned him.

go look at my plays for today :)

stonegossard 06-28-2008 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
In a related story, Frost Giant is now a Grade I winner, and will forever be on the list of Suburban winners.


Hey my old friend.....


How's the economy doin these days ?


The Dow has dumped like 1000 points since your proclamation.

The Indomitable DrugS 06-28-2008 07:29 PM

As long as we are doing better than Ethiopia, as long as gas prices are under $10 a gallon, as long as a Bush is in the White House, and as long as the Canadian Dollar isn't worth triple the American dollar JD will be raving about how strong our economy is.

stonegossard 06-28-2008 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
As long as we are doing better than Ethiopia, as long as gas prices are under $10 a gallon, as long as a Bush is in the White House, and as long as the Canadian Dollar isn't worth triple the American dollar JD will be raving about how strong our economy is.


He has gone into hiding when it comes to discussing the economy.....bastard.

justindew 06-28-2008 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
As long as we are doing better than Ethiopia, as long as gas prices are under $10 a gallon, as long as a Bush is in the White House, and as long as the Canadian Dollar isn't worth triple the American dollar JD will be raving about how strong our economy is.

Unreal.

I never claimed the economy is strong.

I am also not going to get into another discussion about the economy in a racing thread. If anyone wants to discuss this over email, my address is justindew76@yahoo.com.


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