horse never lifted a hoof, even saved every inch of ground and not even a slight late move.....we need more articles like that one.

Yeah, but it was a key race, so what did you expect.

They need to breed her back to Indian Charlie...

Or maybe even Saarland.

not sure if you're joking around, but it could turn out to be a key race.
several of the others were flying along and looked sharp.

Bet the one horse when he runs on real dirt.

I honestly think predicting races will be key races is about as laughably a stupid concept as I have ever heard in racing.

Key races, by their very nature, can't be uncovered until horses run back. And, furthermore, a true key race is NOT ( necessarily ) one where two or more horses win their following starts.

But, hey, people should believe what they want to believe.

Supposed "key" races usually have a lot more to do with where the trainers spot the horses next out. I think these days, the only real edge is if you think a race is getting a speed figure that comes back lower than the horses are capable of running, for whatever reason.

Right, there are so many factors involved, and as usual, people oversimplify them, mostly because they're lazy, and miss out on what's really good ( while falling prey to what is bad ).

of course, did someone call it a key race beforehand?

Not if you use the ignore button correctly.

i thought zaftigs msw win at gs was a key race..i was correct......

oh, now i see where that came from. i guess my eye has developed a built-in auto-ignore because i had passed right over that one.

Garden State is still open? I thought it was turned into a shopping center.

zing!

gulf stream..:rolleyes:

I would have to look at the subsequent efforts from the other horses in the race. Which horses in the race ran significantly better in their NEXT start?

5 next out winners maybee 6

[quote=ArlJim78]finished up the track, what a shocker.[
i actually was shocked.. thought he'd run a lot better then that.

How much better did they run in their following starts? Were any of the wins on turf? In maiden claiming races? On polytrack? Sloppy tracks? Cheaper tracks?

Based on what?

how would you have any idea in advance how he was going to run? only believe what you see and not trainerspeak or other forms of hype or misinformation.

2nd: finished second next out at 3 to 5.
3rd: finished second next out at 3 to 1.
4th: won next out at 2 to 1.
5th: 4th next out at 10 to 1.
6th: 4th next out at 7 to 5.
7th: won next out at even money.
8th: won (on turf) next out at 17 to 1.
9th: won (on polytrack) next out at 7 to 1.
10th: 6th next out at 5 to 1.
11th: yet to return.

So, are you saying that a couple horses winning on another surface somehow indicates this was a key race? The horses that ran back on dirt pretty much sucked.

are you serious ? based on everything!!! not saying he should have won, just saying he should have ran better.. why are you always on me ?

reassons he should have run better...
trainer
pedigree
works

well at 1-1, he is expected to run better then he did, correct ?

many like you hoped he would run better, and piled loads of dumb money on him. basing expectations of a top performance on the trainer, breeding, and workouts is not a good approach. you'll only find overbet hyped horses that will never win often enough to be profitable for you.
those factors are what everyone is looking at therefore you have no edge when you base opinions on them.

don't forget, he DID have an article on drf. no wonder he went off like he did, everyone read drf and thought he couldn't lose.


oops

jcs, you've asked for help with your handicapping. yet you're still going by pedigree. that alone won't tell you much.

this race was in cali, right? bob baffert had a speedster, based on his works? how does speed do on awt?

i did not bet a cent on the race, i said if hes anywhere near the morning line... i did not bet a dime on that race

I DID NOT BET... WHEN DID I SAY I BET THIS RACE ? I WAS INTRESTED TO WATCH, BUT NO BET

you bet ..4 next out winners and 2 seconds....

easy, killer. when i saw you were so bummed, and knowing you bet, i assumed you did here.

Even big proponents of the key race theory would have a hard time backing that one. The horses on dirt underperformed.

Now, if you are advocating betting a horse off one poor dirt race first time on turf or polytrack merely because of who won, more power to you.

well first of all there was some good breeding in the race..now zaftig destroyed them.. but i knew that they, the others in the race had some tallent..im not bing a dick... this time :eek: ..but you show me a race where there are 4 next out winners and 2 seconds regardless of surface..and ill take that all day.as a key race......

Whether we call them potential "key races" or not, don't we always have to evaluate the relative strengths of a particular race.

For example, today's third race at Belmont was about as ugly a $35,000 claiming race as you can get; I'd be inclined to throw everything out the next time these horses run.

By contrast, the second race on Belmont Stakes Day looked to be a pretty strong maiden heat. I'd be inclined to upgrade horses coming out of that race when they run back. And we have to make these judgments before the entire field runs back.

The Sales Topper from Fasig-Tipton Feb debuts at Arlington this weekend going 4.5 furlongs for Harty.

Desert Party ($2.5 million buy) beat out Munnings ($1.7 million) and Mr. Mistoffelees ($1.5 million) for that honor.

By Street Cry out of a Tabasco Cat mare - 4.5f on polytrack doesn't seem like the type of situation you'd see a pedigree like that debut at.

I WAS BUMMED because i am a fan of the sport... i liked the pedigree, i want candy ride to do good, and i thought this one would be stong.

owner/trainer?

when there is no reason why a horse runs poorly I blame the rider...this horse is the goods ( :

if you did not bet against that horse today, and play HP seriously, then maybe one should consider playing a different game?

Reading the article closely I thought Bafferts comments were a bit telling, bringing up real quite and running longer.

well a candy ride horse in the race ran very well, you got the best of both worlds, a horrid chalk and a candy ride that ran well.

Agreed, plus I'm never a big fan of firsters with blinkers on.

How much do you want to bet that his next race is at Saratoga - on a conventional dirt surface?

Had these connections known the weight of JCS was applied they may have scratched. Another one burned up by your tout. Change your name to the cooler