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-   -   W/E Beyers - REVISED Curlin 110 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23330)

hockey2315 06-16-2008 05:34 PM

That's more like it.

The Indomitable DrugS 06-16-2008 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I had a hunch that they would split the variant in the 8.5 furlong races and 9 furlong races - but they didn't.

My hunch proved right - that's exactly what they just did.

The 9f races (Hystericalady and Curlin) were split from the 8.5 furlong races (Pyro and Mambo)

It was a VERY questionable thing to do because the Pyro race came in between the HL and Curlin race - and tracks don't speed right up and slow right back down again - but... they have become very split variant happy when making the Beyer Figs - so it certainly seemed like a very safe bet they would do that... and I was a bit surprised they didn't do it initially.

hockey2315 06-16-2008 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
My hunch proved right - that's exactly what they just did.

The 9f races (Hystericalady and Curlin) were split from the 8.5 furlong races (Pyro and Mambo)

It was a VERY questionable thing to do because the Pyro race came in between the HL and Curlin race - and tracks don't speed right up and slow right back down again - but... they have become very split variant happy when making the Beyer Figs - so it certainly seemed like a very safe bet they would do that... and I was a bit surprised they didn't do it initially.

Makes more sense to me from a capability standpoint - Hystericalady is better than her original fig (and probably this one too), Pyro's not 101 worthy, and 110 works for Curlin even though that seems a little high with the slow pace.

jcs11204 06-16-2008 05:56 PM

ok but this morning when i said it was low, ppl were all over me ?

ateamstupid 06-16-2008 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Makes more sense to me from a capability standpoint - Hystericalady is better than her original fig (and probably this one too), Pyro's not 101 worthy, and 110 works for Curlin even though that seems a little high with the slow pace.

:rolleyes: The blind hatred of Pyro on this site continues to amaze me.

What does capability have to do with these particular races? Hystericalady beat a bunch of muskrats and was hardly asked to run, and Curlin's race was affected by a slow pace. I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

the_fat_man 06-16-2008 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
:rolleyes: The blind hatred of Pyro on this site continues to amaze me.

What does capability have to do with these particular races? Hystericalady beat a bunch of muskrats and was hardly asked to run, and Curlin's race was affected by a slow pace. I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

You got to consider the source, ACE. The people criticizing horses like PYRO are also over hyping horses like Harlem Rocker and Unbridled's whatever. It's a number's frenzy. Enjoy it. It's what makes the game beatable.

MISTERGEE 06-16-2008 06:29 PM

after Curlins 110, 2nd best beyer of weekend is Rockerfeller. trained by marty wolfson in only his last two, runs a 106 beating some very speedy horses with ease. was basically running in the 70s beyer wise and couldnt win a nw2. reminds me of the turnaround of another live oak runner given to wolfson, Miesques Approval went from crap to breeders cup winner and turf champion

Danzig 06-16-2008 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
:rolleyes: The blind hatred of Pyro on this site continues to amaze me.

What does capability have to do with these particular races? Hystericalady beat a bunch of muskrats and was hardly asked to run, and Curlin's race was affected by a slow pace. I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

maybe it's the darley connection?

hockey2315 06-16-2008 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
:rolleyes: The blind hatred of Pyro on this site continues to amaze me.

What does capability have to do with these particular races? Hystericalady beat a bunch of muskrats and was hardly asked to run, and Curlin's race was affected by a slow pace. I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

He's an ok horse - but I just don't think he's that fast. I don't hate him at all - he was one of the two horses I keyed on top in the derby. But, I think the figs he earned earlier this year are about right (as opposed to the BC fig). And, more importantly, I don't think My Pal Charlie is capable of the type of fig that he would get if Pyro got a 101.

I'm not an expert figure maker like you are apparently, so it's just easier for me to look at a fig in relation to a horse's previous figs and make judgments based on that as well as pace, trip, etc... I don't have the time or energy to analyze final times, variants, etc... I'm left at the mercy of the fig makers, which isn't ideal, but I trust their judgment most of the time.

I didn't have a problem with Curlin's original fig because of the pace scenario and the fact that it was his first race back from Dubai, but obviously if they split the variant it works out to a 110. Hystericalady's fig also makes sense, so I don't have a problem with it. Like you said, she wasn't asked (we won't get in to this discussion).

Fat man - you're just corny sometimes. I respect your opinion on trips, but the rest of the time you're a bit of a douche bag.

Cannon Shell 06-16-2008 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
You must not have been following Del Mar that closely the last few years.

Pure As Gold won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at 23/1 first off the claim in 2006.

I am boycotting that race

letswastemoney 06-16-2008 08:38 PM

Heatseeker could be horse of the year next year if they kept him in training

Cannon Shell 06-16-2008 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Not that I necessarily disagree with you, and maybe with the use of synthetics out west it ultimately means little, but I have to say that the CA division is pretty solid this year. Neither Heatseeker, Tiago, or Surf Cat have missed a beat all season long and up until he got hurt, Monterey Jazz was a prominent force himself. Old-timers that try hard like Lava Man and Big Booster (and perhaps Perfect Drift) add a little more depth and there are a couple of horses that may improve like Champs Elysees, Monzante, and Neko Bay.

At the same time, praise should be given to Dan Hendricks for his handling of the good turf horse Daytona, who has butted heads without a break since last October, and even after a big Grade 1 victory last out, is still pointing for a Grade 2 target in the next couple of weeks rather than staying in the stall awaiting something like the Eddie Read or Arlington Million.

IMO Heatseeker and tiago are second raters. Surf cat may have been talented but Headleys horses never seem to run much anyway. Lava man is over the hill as is PD and Big Booster is the second coming of Shifty Sheik. They are not really top horses.

Daytona is a good horse though he is all turf.

blackthroatedwind 06-16-2008 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
IMO Heatseeker and tiago are second raters. Surf cat may have been talented but Headleys horses never seem to run much anyway. Lava man is over the hill as is PD and Big Booster is the second coming of Shifty Sheik. They are not really top horses.

Daytona is a good horse though he is all turf.

Here's a good trivia for you Chuck....name the four distances Shifty Sheik ran following the claim by Oscar. He won the first three races.

Cannon Shell 06-16-2008 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
Heatseeker could be horse of the year next year if they kept him in training

And kept him on synthetics

Cannon Shell 06-16-2008 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Here's a good trivia for you Chuck....name the four distances Shifty Sheik ran following the claim by Oscar. He won the first three races.

I know the first one was 1 1/8th at Saratoga, just missed the tr.

blackthroatedwind 06-16-2008 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I know the first one was 1 1/8th at Saratoga, just missed the tr.


There was also only a quinella on the race which was annoying. What did he run....1:47 2/5?

He won his following start at one mile at Belmont, then he beat Ma Maison at 6F at Belmont, and then he finished second to Slew o Gold in the Woodward.

Cannon Shell 06-16-2008 08:50 PM

Can you imagine the rancor on board like this when Oscar was performing miracles?

blackthroatedwind 06-16-2008 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Can you imagine the rancor on board like this when Oscar was performing miracles?


Rancor? Oscar was like an ATM. You could bet $11 doubles with impugnity. Plus, he had moves, like turnbacks on short rest with blinker changes that were gold.

Of course, there will never be anything like Bob Debonis blinkers off. And I mean NEVER.

Cannon Shell 06-16-2008 08:54 PM

The golden age...

blackthroatedwind 06-16-2008 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
The golden age...

No doubt. That's when the cheaters were GOOD.

SniperSB23 06-17-2008 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

I don't like it either. Why can't they just leave these ones as they were? Are we really to believe that the stretch of track from where they start the 9 furlong races to where they start the 8.5 furlong races is so slow that it needs to be split out?

blackthroatedwind 06-17-2008 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Exactly. Now, as soon as Baffert realizes what a mistake he made skipping the Belmont with her, we'll be all set.


It must be keeping him up at night. After all, we know she's better than Da Tara, and she can outrun him.

blackthroatedwind 06-17-2008 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
To be serious for a second, what did you think of Pyro's effort? I wasn't blown away, but with a minor step forward isn't he still right there among 3 year olds this year?

He's OK. All things considered, he could be a factor in 3YO races later this year. We'll see.

Indian Charlie 06-17-2008 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
This is one of the funniest posts in the history of the world. I really mean that. I can't see though why Baffert would have considered for more than a nanosecond for the Belmont Stakes. Her loss in Louisiana didn't inspire confidence that she wanted to go further.

Hey, don't sell yourself short, I think your post is even funnier!

miraja2 06-17-2008 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Her loss in Louisiana didn't inspire confidence that she wanted to go further.

Neither did anything she did BEFORE that race....as I think about 40 of us tried to tell you at that time.

ArlJim78 06-17-2008 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
But what everyone else didn't seem to understand was that I don't base on projections. Whether or not she wanted to run a single step futher than 8 or 8.5f was irrelevant at that point to me. What was relevant was that up to that point and distance, she had proven as much as anyone else in the crop had. But it's really not worth getting into this debate again.

Just one last thing though. Races at 10f aren't the only things I consider when evaluating. They also run races at distances of 6f, 7f, 8f, and 9f. I feel that at the distances that the majority of races are run for 3yo's, she's still arguably in the top five of 3yo's this year. I'd take her over Pyro if both were running in the Dwyer. Of course, I'd take that horse that beat her in her last over both of them. And the other horse that's beaten her, Proud Spell, I'd take her too. Both of the ones that have beaten her are no slouches and make cases for themselves to be considered top five 3yo's this year too.

Really?

jcs11204 06-17-2008 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
But what everyone else didn't seem to understand was that I don't base on projections. Whether or not she wanted to run a single step futher than 8 or 8.5f was irrelevant at that point to me. What was relevant was that up to that point and distance, she had proven as much as anyone else in the crop had. But it's really not worth getting into this debate again.

Just one last thing though. Races at 10f aren't the only things I consider when evaluating. They also run races at distances of 6f, 7f, 8f, and 9f. I feel that at the distances that the majority of races are run for 3yo's, she's still arguably in the top five of 3yo's this year. I'd take her over Pyro if both were running in the Dwyer. Of course, I'd take that horse that beat her in her last over both of them. And the other horse that's beaten her, Proud Spell, I'd take her too. Both of the ones that have beaten her are no slouches and make cases for themselves to be considered top five 3yo's this year too.

SHE IS 100% top 5, and shes a champion, ppl fail to understand that

jcs11204 06-17-2008 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Really?

i think i would take her over pyro today... my crystal ball says she'd cruise

jcs11204 06-17-2008 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Spare me the champion stuff. There is just no way that she is top 5 right now. As it is, she's the 3rd best filly after Proud Spell and Zaftig and that's real debateable because I think Pure Clan is better at this point than Indian Blessing. And what about Akoma? Indian Blessing is nice, but the field has caught up with her this year.

shes top 5, even if its 5, shes still top 5

jcs11204 06-17-2008 03:39 PM

shes is better then pure clan... i can say that without a doubt

jcs11204 06-17-2008 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I grant you that she may be the third best filly behind those two. But I just can't pick out two colts that I think are better than her. That's my thing. After Big Brown, I don't see another one.

the fillies are tons stronger this year, they are carrying the 3 yrold crop

jcs11204 06-17-2008 03:42 PM

i am also pretty sure that indian blessing has defeated proud spell 2-3 times head to head

blackthroatedwind 06-17-2008 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I grant you that she may be the third best filly behind those two. But I just can't pick out two colts that I think are better than her. That's my thing. After Big Brown, I don't see another one.

So, you think she would beat J Be K at 7F?

jcs11204 06-17-2008 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I love your lists, so who are the top 5 3 year olds right now?

3 yr olds ? or 3 yr old filles ?


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