For those who play Delaware Park
 

some Quirky track configuration info that you should take note of:
races 5,7 today at the About 1 1/16th turf distance.
Starting near a slight turn in the shoot, they go about 8 seconds before the shoot turn, and then enter Turn1 at about 27 seconds. Difficult for outside speed, particularly those who have built their past performances on easy leads. Outside posts require skilled handling by the jockeys.

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allright...
we can see in the 7th that the uncoupled Matz entry(#s4,11) plays a role in the track configuration information. The 11 potentially lays over the field in talent, has a jockey that can judge the track configuration and the pace in Dominguez. The 4 has potential to clear the field, he's in there to be a rabbit, but could still compete for the tri... Too bad Kyle Branch is on. Matz is no dummy, Branch off and Napravinik on the 4. Also Add the potent drug Amicar to the 11.

Delaware Race3 $6 to win on #5 Rasser
estimated $2 price=15
est. hit%=.125
Value=1.125
edgefactor=.168
wager amount=6

Delaware Race3 $16 to place on #5 Rasser
estimated $2 price=8
est. hit%=.35
Value=1.4
edgefactor=.49
wager amount=16

If Bellsbutthead would join this discussion I think we could safely call the Guiness Book.

Lose, loss = $22
new bankroll =1059.20


comments: good price on High percentage barn stretch-out in a weak field of maidens with no other big% barns, not this time. Horse pulls up after stopping badly on the backstretch.

Nothing butt class here
 

this is good stuff.
I'm gonna need you to inject some more NY Attitude as the thread goes on. Feel free to mush last out high beyer winners as well...

The Little Guy everybody... Steve Crist

*claps*

The Edge Factor... Pretty Soon It Will Be The Tie In Too The Sales Pitch.... 5,4,3,2,1...............

Edge factor is just Value times estimatedHit%
=Value*hit%

Edgefactor is just an easier way of saying all that.
You can use it to decide how much you want to bet if you don't want randomness to cause you to ruin your bankroll.

Value is the $2price times estimated% divided by 2 value = ($2price*hitProbability)/2
So a $6 horse with a 1/3hit probability would be a break even wager or 1.00.

will you handle this guy once and for all...

we should do a mythical contest... 1000 bankroll for a 2 week period. something like that

i want to see a heads-up contest between jcs and bobby fischer, no holds barred. start with mythical $1000, first one to $2000 wins. fischer uses edge factor, jcs can use his own system or a crystal ball, whatever works best.

my money is on jcs and his crystal ball.

Delaware Race7 $16 to win on #11 born to be
estimated $2 price=6
est. hit%=.40
Value=1.2
edgefactor=.48
wager amount=16

win, return $40(5.00*8)
new bankroll =1083.20


Comments: LMAO, somebody put 3 large on it with a minute to post. The entrymate 4 did his job, never got the possible clear easy with the 1 also trying to go early.

race 8 Delaware
$10 win
22 place
26 show

all on #6

lose, loss = $56
new bankroll = 1027.2

Comments: Beattie shipper didn't do anything. was bet well late to show, have to be more careful with the pools at delaware.

Del R1 $2 exacta 1-4

also $2 show on #1

As an aside, 10+22+26 does not = 56.

good luck.

win, return = 34 (30exacta +$4.00 show)
new bankroll = $1055.20


Comments: another larry jones move up at Del. Estimated hit% for the straight exacta was 12% , estimated payout $24 for a value of 1.44 and edgefactor of 0.1728.
24
0.12
1.44

oops
 

Thank you STS. I deducted that $2 in the most recent balance.

i cant take the pain... i will give you one horse today at deleware
and you put your whole bankroll on him, i promise its a winner, give me a few minutes

Thanks JCS

nevermind, this card sucks, i am betting tomorrow pretty heavy, i will post my plays tonight.
good luck bobby

Nevermind?!?

I cancelled meetings and pumped up my ADW account in anticipation of your release.

Joe, this is worse than lying about your parents dying in a car accident and leaving you $12,000,000.00.

Much worse.

what ?

Monmouth race 4 $2 win on #1 secret vendetta

lose, loss = 2
new bankroll = $1053.20

Comments: dumb bet all the way around. Embarassing when you don't remember that an entry is in the 12post rather than the 1post. Mistakes happen.

del R8 $2 win on #4

lose, loss = 2
new bankroll = $1051.20

Comments: good price on the winner Wheels up At Noon. I should have noticed how well he was suited to the course. I knew #4 Salinja was the class here, but also that he tends to flatten in the stretch. Was not a good bet considering he would need things to go his way. Perfect ride from Jeremy Rose on the winner- couldn't have timed the course any better with the turn out of the shoot, followed by the first turn.

Any reason you bet so small with a $1000 bankroll?

I don't want randomness to skew my results. I also wasn't feeling very focused, and in fact did make mistakes.

Wouldn't the size of your bankroll help counter-balance any randomness?

If i used a 10,000 bankroll it would be less random than a 1,000 bankroll using the same bet sizes.

but if I wager $2k a race, than even a $10,000 bankroll would be exposed to randomness.

I use the formula Bankroll*Value*hit%*0.033 to determine a safe betsize, which would equal $14 for the last race. (1050*$1.35*0.30*0.033=14)
I can go below the suggested wager size but not over.

I WILL BE making a large win/place bet on the #5 in the next race at belmont.... please wish me luck

I usually use 5% of my bankroll for prime plays. . . maybe 2-2.5% for regular. . .

good way to do it.

Belmont race 2 $4 place on #3

$2win on #3 and 4

win, return 13.80 (5.80+8.00)
new bankroll = 1057.00

belmont race 4
$2 exacta 10-4

lose, loss = $2
new bankroll = 1055.00

Comments: handicapped the major player right in INFL but judged the two favorites wrong. Using both on top would have reduced value.

belmont race 8 $2 show #7

lose, loss = $2
new bankroll = 1053.00

Comments: I misjudged Banrock's ability level, and the race quickened nicely with a quality finis. Just a bad pick in hindsight.