I'm looking forward to the debates. I think they will be very interesting for the first time in many years. Debates with Bush were almost laughable, correction...they were very laughable. It will be nice to see two intellegent people up there swinging away...and that is where the election will be won or lost. This county is fu*ked up, the one that gives hope...instead of the last eight years of fear will win. Not sure who I will vote for because I'm proud to not be a Dem or a Rep.

Spyder

Totally agree. The "pull one lever and you vote for one party"
was intended for Republicans.

Well said.

Win Virginia, PUHLEASE

democratic governor, senator and state senate majority.

huge edge to dems in registering new voters since 2006.

yeah. it's out of reach.

btw: latest statewide poll in indiana shows obama ahead of mccain 43-42%.

it's early and i doubt indiana would really be in play in november.

but even if obama does nothing more than make mccain spend time and $ defending rock solid republican indiana, that's a win.

virginia is definitely going to be a swing state. anyone making a call now for november is just pg1985'ing.

If this is sarcasm, it is extremely funny. If this is not, it is extremely pathetic.

i think it's just part of the national malaise.

This election is already shaping up as battle for four states: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Each of the other large states is decidely pro-McCain or pro-Obama. Also, many of the states that are leaning for one particular candidate seem nearly destined for that presidential hopeful.

Some facts:

1. the 92% or so of African-Americans that vote Democrat will vote Obama (neutral for Obama)
2. educated liberal white females will feel disinfranchised and may post lower turnout in November election (bad for Obama)
3. less-educated white males do not identify with Obama who is successful, liberal, well-educated, wealthy African-American male. Floyd R. Turbo ain't pulling donkey lever come November (bad for Obama)
4. conservatives must choose between lesser-of-two-evil liberal candidates -- who will "hurt" my pocketbook less (good for McCain based on his lengthy voting record)
5. Hispanics seem split between pro-entrepreneur (conservative) and pro-government (liberal) (neutral with no advantage to either candidate)

These next months will be filled with campaigning, pundits, advertising and telephone calls seeking support and money for millions of Americans.

Historical observation: US voters have elected three members of Congress to serve as their president: Garfield, Harding, and Kennedy. None lived to complete his term with two being assassinated. While Harding had what most historians agree as the most corrupt presidency ever. History does not suggest that either McCain or Obama will offer great leadership and, therefore, will serve only one term.

the concept that mccain will put pennsyvania (which went for kerry by 2.5%) in play is much less plausible than one where ohio (which went for bush by 2.1%) is in play. the climate is far different than 2004. and obama won't have the money problems mccain will.

they're both one of 12-15 swing states, not 4. small states are overweighted in the electoral college. new mexico, colorado and nevada have 19 electoral college votes between them and all went for bush by small margins in 2004. ohio has 20.

if the economy stays in the tank, obama could win a landslide. he won't need the unpopular war.

if the economy improves, he still has the unpopular war.

i think your analysis misses the larger trends going on.

Numero cinco:

Slight advantage McCain. Military background is important to Hispanic voters. At least where I live. Obama might have had a slight chance to win Texas and seal the deal if Hispanics came out with the same fervor as blacks for Obama. But they will not.

As an aside and something fairly strange. I get the feeling Hispanic voters have a... dont know quite how to put it...

"Why dont we get as much minority representation as Blacks."
There is some tension. The governor of New Mexico came out for Obama very early to try and smooth this over but it will not work imo.

Even if he chooses Richardson as his VP, which is what I am hoping for

In the Democratic primary here, Hispanics came out in very large numbers. More Hispanic females than I have ever witnessed. All Hillary. This large voting block does not come back to the polls for Obama.

Imo God is correct. The hanging with Iraq is the giant weight on McCain. That, and Obama will bring out more younger voters than ever before. I think this race easily brings over 60% of eligible voters. It might hit 70%. Thats a win for Obama.

Still way early.

sorry to belabor the point, but do you think the above is true even if Richardson is on the ticket?

I dont think Richardson brings Hispanics
to Obama to make any sort of difference.
I really dont.

The young voter turnout could make a huge difference.
Imo Obama could be purple and younger voters of all
ethnic groups vote purple.

actually #5, like much of the post it's quoted from, is just dead wrong.

the latest national poll shows obama leading mccain among hispanic voters 62%-29%

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...,5793717.story

What is amazing to me is that the latest poll showed Obama with a 2% lead over McCain. In this economy and the war in IRAQ, it is hard to believe the Dems are not crushing the Repubs.

Scott, you can't be serious? No way he wins VA. The last dem to carry VA was Lyndon Johnson some 34 years ago. Obama has ZERO shot to win VA.

The demographics in Virginia are changing and it is ripe for the picking in the fall. Check out the polls there:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008.../virginia.html

It is very much up for grabs. If he chooses Webb as his running mate I think he'll take it. Even without Webb he has a very good shot.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=5HUSryoW4Js

That would be his only chance, IMO...and even then I still don't think he will win.

People talk about Dem. Gov Kaine (3rd nicest Democrat I know behind Genuine Risk and GB Bob) and state senate majority, etc...but this is the same commonwealth that actually had Doug Wilder as it's Gov. in the 80's:rolleyes:

lol...thnx..I think..

80% of my friends are righties too..they like me, just think I'm wrong

FTFY....


and what was that youtube post? I can't see it at work:o

oh..just some Southern rabble rousing:)

heading to AP now...Chuck's got one in the 6th and he and I have one in the 4th at CD today...hoping for the best

Good luck boys:cool:

swings in voter opinion are somewhat predictable.

obama will be crushing mccain in 4 weeks.

the question is whether mccain can close the gap by november.

the economy will probably look far different in october/november in which case he has a chance. if there's still bad news though, you can write the republican's off.

dems are going to pick up house and senate seats regardless.

just saw a story on pbs newshour about the "purple" commonwealth of virginia.

Was very interesting seeing Obama "kick off" his campaign in southwest VA the other day. He got some attention with his health care reform (don't see that program working, but I can't claim much knowledge regarding that area) and more clean coal energy (really hit a homerun there) but his single biggest obstacle in winning over the VA vote, especially in the rural areas, is gun control. That will be his biggest downfall as far as losing voters in VA...IMO

That hits a homerun for me...it's good for business. My employer has been involved in SCR (Selective Catalytic Reduction) construction at several coal burning power plants in the SE over the last decade.

Let's do some more. A little job security never hurts. :D

Hey man....its all about Bigs...we know that. Your world bro:rolleyes:

kev:

he'll get crushed in rural virginia outside of the black vote. the black vote is about 20% of the state btw.

but there's a huge population in nova that now votes democratic.

he'll carry nova and the coastal southern counties along the n carolina border which have huge black majorities.

it's a question of turnout and margin's in those area's vs. mccains ability to motivate his voter's through the middle of the state.

i doubt many on mccain's staff are looking the state, rolling their eyes, and saying "puhleez!"

I wonder how much Allen Iverson paid Doug Wilder to pardon him from the charges from the fight he had in the bowling alley.

Pardons are abused by both sides equally

He can absolutely bank on Northern VA, but the southeast corner of the state is no sure thing, by any means. I was born in raised in Hampton...so I know that area well. He can count on carrying Richmond...that's for certain. I mean good Lord...that city didn't get enough of Wilder as Gov., so they decided to elect him as the city Mayor:rolleyes:

Oh please do not let Al sharpton or Jesse Jackson get to have their faces and ignorance all over the news. I swear if they do this time I am done with all news except local.

Sugar Ray? He needs a job...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2816356

Brandon Webb has a better shot of winning the NL Cy Young. He may make a good president too.

:tro: :tro: :tro: quote=Coach Pants][/quote]

OMG that is great.
The whole family will enjoy this.

If he picks Hillary for V.P., then he's gunna need a food taster.