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-   -   Zenyatta- 103 Beyer (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22941)

10 pnt move up 06-02-2008 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
You're right. That kills the "Ginger Punch = Azeri" argument so many of us were trying to make.

just pointing out her 3 grade 1's, champion this and that.....its a paper tiger, she would get drown by the likes of Imperial Gesture who was a pretty average 3yo filly.

ArlJim78 06-02-2008 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
On what basis are you possibly coming up with that? The mess of a track just as likely hurt her as it helped her. She'd run some big races when she was on fast dirt tracks.

no doubt the track moved her up that day, that was her biggest 2 turn race ever, several other front running horses ran out of their eyeballs that day. she has run nothing like that race before or after. same as Hard Spun, War Pass and Indian Blessing.

hockey2315 06-02-2008 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
no doubt the track moved her up that day, that was her biggest 2 turn race ever, several other front running horses ran out of their eyeballs that day. she has run nothing like that race before or after. same as Hard Spun, War Pass and Indian Blessing.

Might want to look up her PPs, Jim.

RolloTomasi 06-02-2008 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuthg
yeah, the Louisville... 4 clear of Leah's Secret and 6 lengths in front of Lear's Princess. I was at Oaklawn for her "flop" in the Apple Blossom; that rail was dead as hell all weekend and Ramon put her right on it...

As an aside, Lear's Princess is the biggest phony "Grade 1 horse" currently in training next to Shamdinan. She seemed fake before the BC and has done little to suggest otherwise since. She should stick to turf if she's gonna somehow resurrect her career.

ArlJim78 06-02-2008 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Might want to look up her PPs, Jim.

you know i have, what is your point?

RolloTomasi 06-02-2008 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
you know i have, what is your point?

Aside from her close defeat in the BC, Hystericalady has lost just once (a race she emerged out of with injury) going two turns on conventional dirt. All other races under those conditions have been victories, all by open lengths, including one versus males. I think her Hollywood Oaks victory, numberswise, was the fastest two turn race by a 3yo filly in 2006.

ArlJim78 06-02-2008 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
She ran a 110 Beyer as a 3 year old in the Hollywood Oaks, it was a monster effort. Last year she ran a 105 at Bay meadows against males and a 105 in the Molly Pitcher. All 3 efforts on fast tracks.

what was her beyer in the distaff?

SniperSB23 06-02-2008 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
what was her beyer in the distaff?

104 which I believe was her worst dirt figure of the year and her only run in the slop.

hockey2315 06-02-2008 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
you know i have, what is your point?

What they said

ArlJim78 06-02-2008 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
What they said

okay then. if she ever runs in another 9 furlong Gr1 i think there will be some surprised people. she has never run a race that fast early, middle, and late. her other good numbers were produced by more favorable set-ups. everything in her pp's tells me that she should have been slowing down much more at Monmouth in the late stages. but like I said she wasn't the only one that never slowed down that day.

RolloTomasi 06-02-2008 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
okay then. if she ever runs in another 9 furlong Gr1 i think there will be some surprised people. she has never run a race that fast early, middle, and late. her other good numbers were produced by more favorable set-ups. everything in her pp's tells me that she should have been slowing down much more at Monmouth in the late stages. but like I said she wasn't the only one that never slowed down that day.

The difference with those other frontrunners that held on (Indian Blessing, War Pass, Gotcha Gold, Hard Spun) was that they had things their own way in the early part of the race. Hystericalady broke from the outside post, dueled throughout, and still held sway. If it was solely the track that kept her going the whole time, and not her talent, then I wonder why other seemingly outclassed horses like Hard Spun and Gotcha Gold didn't make much more noise at the finish with more favorablel setups than their rather modest distant 2nd place finishes.

ArlJim78 06-02-2008 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
The difference with those other frontrunners that held on (Indian Blessing, War Pass, Gotcha Gold, Hard Spun) was that they had things their own way in the early part of the race. Hystericalady broke from the outside post, dueled throughout, and still held sway. If it was solely the track that kept her going the whole time, and not her talent, then I wonder why other seemingly outclassed horses like Hard Spun and Gotcha Gold didn't make much more noise at the finish with more favorablel setups than their rather modest distant 2nd place finishes.

i agree with this and don't claim it was solely the track, but I'm still suspicious of the outcome.

Hard Spun made about as much noise as one could expect, look at how he demolished Street Sense. What made Hard Spun suddenly become this beast that could run 10 furlongs and laugh at Street Sense?

Why wasn't Pyro able to close into those insane fractions and threaten War Pass like he did in the Champagne? As we now know War Pass had distance limitations which certanly weren't evident that day. An example is the Wood where War Pass again ran insane fractions but slowed to a crawl which allowed a horse less talented than Pyro to get by him.

freddymo 06-02-2008 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Hysterical Lady was lucky that the track was a mess, otherwise she finishes worse off than she did.


If she wins I think I have to get a duffel bag for the score... DrugS was touted her and she is a super nice filly/mare.. I think the world of her

SniperSB23 06-02-2008 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
i agree with this and don't claim it was solely the track, but I'm still suspicious of the outcome.

Hard Spun made about as much noise as one could expect, look at how he demolished Street Sense. What made Hard Spun suddenly become this beast that could run 10 furlongs and laugh at Street Sense?

Why wasn't Pyro able to close into those insane fractions and threaten War Pass like he did in the Champagne? As we now know War Pass had distance limitations which certanly weren't evident that day. An example is the Wood where War Pass again ran insane fractions but slowed to a crawl which allowed a horse less talented than Pyro to get by him.

Street Sense sucks in the slop. That moved him back more than Hard Spun moved up.

Pyro may be the one with distance limitations. I think War Pass is more limited by how hard he's pressed out of the gate.

PSH 06-02-2008 09:47 PM

Reminds me of
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I have never thought that Zenyatta looked like Azeri. I always thought she looked much better than Azeri. Zenyatta has always looked like she is a male running against females. Too big and strong for them. She had no pace to chase, and it made no difference at all. To me, she is getting better, and stronger. This would be like a Tranny getting her T shots.


There was a filly out here in California a few years ago who was big and strong and her name was Manistique. I really really liked her and on her best day she could run really really big. However, in the end she was too inconsistent to be considered really top flight. Its still early for Zenyatta but it would be nice to see her shipped to the SPA this summer.

RolloTomasi 06-02-2008 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSH
There was a filly out here in California a few years ago who was big and strong and her name was Manistique. I really really liked her and on her best day she could run really really big. However, in the end she was too inconsistent to be considered really top flight. Its still early for Zenyatta but it would be nice to see her shipped to the SPA this summer.

I think the only races Manistique (coincidentally also trained by John Shireffs) ever lost were outside CA. She was really horrendous elsewhere. Of course, having to run against horses like Banshee Breeze instead of the typical CA pasties will do that for your overall record. She was also a horrendous producer.

At least Zenyatta has got the road trip thing handled.

ArlJim78 06-02-2008 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Street Sense sucks in the slop. That moved him back more than Hard Spun moved up.

Pyro may be the one with distance limitations. I think War Pass is more limited by how hard he's pressed out of the gate.

<throws in the white towel>

10 pnt move up 06-02-2008 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
I think the only races Manistique (coincidentally also trained by John Shireffs) ever lost were outside CA. She was really horrendous elsewhere. Of course, having to run against horses like Banshee Breeze instead of the typical CA pasties will do that for your overall record. She was also a horrendous producer.

At least Zenyatta has got the road trip thing handled.

solid analogy, some horses dont ship that well, take Sky Beauty for example, when running against NYRA patsies she was awsome ( ;) ) but when shipping she fell apart.

blackthroatedwind 06-03-2008 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
solid analogy, some horses dont ship that well, take Sky Beauty for example, when running against NYRA patsies she was awsome ( ;) ) but when shipping she fell apart.


She shipped once....right?

RolloTomasi 06-03-2008 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
She shipped once....right?

No. Twice.

She lost perhaps her toughest race, the '93 BC Distaff at SA aside from her horrendous '94 effort at Churchill.

Hollywood Wildcat, Paseana, Re Toss, and Dispute finished in front of her that day.

blackthroatedwind 06-03-2008 12:20 AM

I was actually thinking of 1993 at Santa Anita as I was there.

She was never that fast.

RolloTomasi 06-03-2008 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I was actually thinking of 1993 at Santa Anita as I was there.

She was never that fast.

I thought of her KY start first. I had to look it up to see if she made it out to CA. Jerkens seemed like the type who would refuse to ship his horse out here. I think, despite whatever excuses are given at the time, that's why you don't see horses like Java Gold, Mineshaft, and a bunch of Zito horses (Birdstone, Eurosilver, The Cliff's Edge, etc.) in the BC.

And now we'll get two years in a row of more of the same. Of course, with the addition of the synthetic surfaces, we might not even see any shippers aside from KY and Canada.

blackthroatedwind 06-03-2008 12:28 AM

Mack Miller was wavering with Java Gold after Pat Day cost him the Jockey Club and might well have sent him if he hadn't gotten injured.

pgardn 06-03-2008 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I have never thought that Zenyatta looked like Azeri. I always thought she looked much better than Azeri. Zenyatta has always looked like she is a male running against females. Too big and strong for them. She had no pace to chase, and it made no difference at all. To me, she is getting better, and stronger. This would be like a Tranny getting her T shots.

Looked as in her physical size or the way she runs races?
Azeri ran away from horses. This big gal waits for exhaustion to set in.

10 pnt move up 06-03-2008 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
Looked as in her physical size or the way she runs races?
Azeri ran away from horses. This big gal waits for exhaustion to set in.

crazy comment, she is moving very fast into slow fractions, there is no fall apart in her efforts, she is winning the way closers are supposed to lose.

Rupert Pupkin 06-03-2008 03:02 AM

Here is an article about Zenyatta at drf.com. It says her next start will be in the $300,000 Grade I Vanity at Hollywood Park on July 5th. And as expected, it says that the major goal for the year will be the BC Distaff.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/95123.html

SniperSB23 06-03-2008 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Here is an article about Zenyatta at drf.com. It says her next start will be in the $300,000 Grade I Vanity at Hollywood Park on July 5th. And as expected, it says that the major goal for the year will be the BC Distaff.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/95123.html

Too bad that only leaves three weeks for the Go For Wand which makes it less likely she ships in for that. And I think Tiago would be more likely to ship out for the Whitney if they were shipping Zenyatta as well. I wonder if they will just skip the Del Mar meet with her since no one seems to like that surface.

philcski 06-03-2008 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Too bad that only leaves three weeks for the Go For Wand which makes it less likely she ships in for that. And I think Tiago would be more likely to ship out for the Whitney if they were shipping Zenyatta as well. I wonder if they will just skip the Del Mar meet with her since no one seems to like that surface.

Fair point, but I think Tiago has proven he prefers a traditional dirt surface over synthetics. Maybe they pass on the Hollywood Gold Cup in favor of the Whitney with him?

SniperSB23 06-03-2008 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Fair point, but I think Tiago has proven he prefers a traditional dirt surface over synthetics. Maybe they pass on the Hollywood Gold Cup in favor of the Whitney with him?

They could do both, there are four weeks in between. In the case of Zenyatta though it is only three weeks so seems very doubtful.


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