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-   -   Curlin pointing to Arc?? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22262)

Cannon Shell 05-07-2008 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Yeah, it really wouldn't hurt his value in the least to lose and would increase it significantly if he were to win. That's the only reason I am believing there is any chance they'd try it.
I dont think he can increase his value signifigantly because he is already out of range for almost everyone anyway

Cannon Shell 05-07-2008 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Better Than Honour
This horse would have a shot in any race, anywhere, at any time. A win in the Arc would stamp him as possibly the greatest horse of all-time when it comes to achievements. That is if he wins the BC Classic again.

He starting fee as a stallion would probably be $250,000 if he won that race. Not just because that would make him a great dirt and turf horse but because he is so sound.
not really and not really

SniperSB23 05-07-2008 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
No one's gonna show up in the Stephen Foster, that's $450,000 right there, giving him $9.25 million. Whitney pays $450,000 for first, Woodward pays $300,000, Gold Cup pays $600,000. You don't think he has it sewn up barring injury?
Yeah, but we said the same thing about Invasor last year after the World Cup. I doubt if he stayed in the US he would run in all four of those races. Foster - Whitney - JCGC seems the likely course.

brockguy 05-07-2008 01:55 PM
The Arc would be a good race for Curlin as they have the recognised prep races over the course and distance 4 weeks before the race, which seems to be to their liking.. Those prep races tend to turn into joke races though but at least he would get experience over the track.

ateamstupid 05-07-2008 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Yeah, but we said the same thing about Invasor last year after the World Cup. I doubt if he stayed in the US he would run in all four of those races. Foster - Whitney - JCGC seems the likely course.
I didn't say he'd run in all four. I was just pointing out how much money there is to be won.

If he takes your path and wins all three, he's got $10.3 million in earnings.

If he wins the first two and runs second in the Gold Cup, he's got $9.9 million, if he wins the Foster and Gold Cup and runs second in the Whitney, he's got $10 million. This is before factoring in a possible race after the Gold Cup.

King Glorious 05-07-2008 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Winning the Arlington Million does nothing for him. Winning the Arc would make him a virtual immortal. The reason they are discussing races like the Arc and Japan Cup is because of timing, as they have indicated a reluctance to running him in the BC on synthetic surfaces, and thus the overseas races would, in all likelihood, be his final appearances. It logically follows that he will run in US dirt races, which would ( at least slightly ) enhance his value and likely pad his earnings, before taking a shot at something more substantial.

I understand the logic in suggesting that should he try the Million, and bomb, they would know not to waste their time in Paris, but by running in logical, and prestigious, spots here, and likely winning, and then making a final parting, and sporting, gesture, like the Arc becomes a no lose situation for them....with unprecidented upside. If he runs in the Arc he would be passing on the Jockey Club Gold Cup only. I will miss seeing him....but as they say....." Been there, done that. "
I knew one day, I'd rub off on you. I knew it. When you were typing this out, were you cringing thinking "this is exactly what KG would type"?

SniperSB23 05-07-2008 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I didn't say he'd run in all four. I was just pointing out how much money there is to be won.

If he takes your path and wins all three, he's got $10.3 million in earnings.

If he wins the first two and runs second in the Gold Cup, he's got $9.9 million, if he wins the Foster and Gold Cup and runs second in the Whitney, he's got $10 million. This is before factoring in a possible race after the Gold Cup.
Yeah, I'm sure he'll get it barring injury but that barring injury is a big part of it. We've had 3 of the last 4 HOYs come back the following year and the first two were retired with injuries before the end of June. The one who did retire wound up breaking down on a stud farm. Not the best track record going right now.

King Glorious 05-07-2008 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
Because the Arc is one of the most prestigious races in the world. . . I like the fact that they're considering actually having a little fun with this horse rather than playing it safe and keeping him on dirt against overmatched opponents. I couldn't care less if he wins the Stephen Foster or the JCGC or maybe even the BC Classic with what his competition would most likely be. But for him to run in the Arc would bring some excitement to a sport that needs it right now.
Same thinking I had about GZ. Not that it was a good thing to see him retire but the prospect of watching him beat up on the same group of horses over and over if he stayed around the rest of the year was boring.

King Glorious 05-07-2008 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I highly doubt he will go to the Arc, though it would be cool, but if he does I am guessing he won't try the turf beforehand.
I agree with this too. I don't see a need in trying it first. Either he can do it or he can't.

AlexP 05-07-2008 02:31 PM
The one thing I'm curious about if they did go to the Arc is if they'd go for one of those preps beforehand. Asmussen has said multiple times Curlin does better in his second race at a track, which is why they went to Dubai for a prep. However, I could understand not doing it, because of reasons stated before (win races here on a surface you know he likes, then you lose nothing if he does bad in the Arc).

King Glorious 05-07-2008 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexP
The one thing I'm curious about if they did go to the Arc is if they'd go for one of those preps beforehand. Asmussen has said multiple times Curlin does better in his second race at a track, which is why they went to Dubai for a prep. However, I could understand not doing it, because of reasons stated before (win races here on a surface you know he likes, then you lose nothing if he does bad in the Arc).
The exact reason why I had no problem with George Washington coming here for the Classic instead of the Mile. What would winning the Mile have done for him?

blackthroatedwind 05-07-2008 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
I knew one day, I'd rub off on you. I knew it. When you were typing this out, were you cringing thinking "this is exactly what KG would type"?

You're always on my mind.

cmorioles 05-07-2008 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Paris would never be the same
He'd never find Longchamp. He would be 1 to 5 to find Pigalle.

slotdirt 05-07-2008 03:42 PM
Scav, were you one of the two 300-pounders taking the Woodford Reserve tour on Sunday afternoon clothed fully in nothing but Chicago Bears paraphanelia?

deltagulf 05-07-2008 03:42 PM
i would like to see him in the arc. it would be a great win for him and connections. plus very good money and prestige.

brockguy 05-07-2008 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deltagulf
i would like to see him in the arc. it would be a great win for him and connections. plus very good money and prestige.
4million euro purse

ddthetide 05-07-2008 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
So you'd rather see him beat up on Better Than Bonds and Magna Graduate and Wanderin Boy all year than see him go try the best turf horses in the world in one of the most prestigious races on earth for a shot at immortality?
don't get me wrong, i root for curlin but immortal is pushing it abit. he's only run 10 times. 3rd in the derby, 2nd in the belmont, 3rd in the haskill. the BC and dubai are his biggest wins. he'll get the earnings record because the purses are so much bigger. he's a really nice horse but not one of the greats. if they are tring to make a legend then run him in the US so people here can see him. i just don't get excited by international racing. his stud value can't get much if any higher.

GBBob 05-07-2008 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brockguy
4million euro purse
Based on my last trip to Europe, that's about 4 Cokes and a loaf of bread

SniperSB23 05-07-2008 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddthetide
don't get me wrong, i root for curlin but immortal is pushing it abit. he's only run 10 times. 3rd in the derby, 2nd in the belmont, 3rd in the haskill. the BC and dubai are his biggest wins. he'll get the earnings record because the purses are so much bigger. he's a really nice horse but not one of the greats. if they are tring to make a legend then run him in the US so people here can see him. i just don't get excited by international racing. his stud value can't get much if any higher.
He'll never even be close to a legend with a BC Classic, a Preakness, and a Dubai World Cup on his resume. Add in the Arc and the Japan Cup and he's suddenly in unprecedented company. Winning the Foster, Whitney, and JCGC do nothing for his legacy.

brockguy 05-07-2008 04:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddthetide
don't get me wrong, i root for curlin but immortal is pushing it abit. he's only run 10 times. 3rd in the derby, 2nd in the belmont, 3rd in the haskill. the BC and dubai are his biggest wins. he'll get the earnings record because the purses are so much bigger. he's a really nice horse but not one of the greats. if they are tring to make a legend then run him in the US so people here can see him. i just don't get excited by international racing. his stud value can't get much if any higher.
When there is a top class Irish horse, there is nothing that makes me prouder seeing him/her going round the world winning top races....

brockguy 05-07-2008 04:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBBob
Based on my last trip to Europe, that's about 4 Cokes and a loaf of bread
true!! thats why i love bringing my euros over to the US!

ateamstupid 05-07-2008 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddthetide
don't get me wrong, i root for curlin but immortal is pushing it abit. he's only run 10 times. 3rd in the derby, 2nd in the belmont, 3rd in the haskill. the BC and dubai are his biggest wins. he'll get the earnings record because the purses are so much bigger. he's a really nice horse but not one of the greats. if they are tring to make a legend then run him in the US so people here can see him. i just don't get excited by international racing. his stud value can't get much if any higher.
There's the heart of it. As Scott said, winning a bunch of dirt Grade I's against nobody isn't gonna do anything towards making him a "legend". Winning the Arc and/or the Japan Cup definitely would.

Danzig 05-07-2008 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I'm still trying to figure out why he would have 'no shot' in the Japan Cup for example. He did win the Dubai World Cup... which was the best the world had to offer?
if that field was the best the world had to offer, this sport truly is on its last legs.

Danzig 05-07-2008 06:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Hmmph.

Am I the only one who thinks they're saying all of this to put pressure on the BC and Santa Anita to install a dirt surface?
no

hockey2315 05-07-2008 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Hmmph.

Am I the only one who thinks they're saying all of this to put pressure on the BC and Santa Anita to install a dirt surface?
How much would that cost?

_ed_ 05-07-2008 07:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
scav, why would he not have a shot in the arc? off the top of my head lets start with no grass experience facing the best grass horses in the premier grass race in the world, couple that with running at 12f on a tricky undulating course that he has no experience on, add to that his running style seems suited for dirt, he doesn't cruise along and explode, he's more of a steady grinder, he is a large barrel chested horse which I don't believe fits the mold of your proto-typical Arc winner.
Agreed.

Also, it would be his first time racing right-handed, and the first time he's ever had to race on a course with undulations. Massive ask, I would be hugely impressed if he handled it.

saratogabrit 05-08-2008 09:54 AM
They do have the advantage over virtually all other American outfits-save the likes of Biancone and Clement-that they have someone on their team who knows Longchamp and the training facilities at Chantilly inside out.

If he goes for the Arc-they will have to decide whether they run in the Woodward leave the US and train up to the race or leave towards the end of August and run in the Prix Foy at Longchamp 3 weeks before the Arc.

_ed_ 05-08-2008 06:12 PM
I think the Prix Foy would be a much better idea.

JJP 05-08-2008 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Better Than Honour
This horse would have a shot in any race, anywhere, at any time.
Except, of course, against Commentator at 7f:rolleyes:

pgiaco 05-08-2008 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP
Except, of course, against Commentator at 7f:rolleyes:
Or at 9f.:rolleyes:

zippyneedsawin 05-11-2008 11:23 AM
Curlin tops the list of early nominees. And the purse has doubled to 6+ million!! Now the richest race in the world (thanks to the oil in Qatar)



http://drf.com/news/article/94449.html


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