Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

He was tired. Not exhausted, but tired. A freak would be a horse throwing up a sub 2:00 time with a 115 beyer. He is actually just very typical of most derby winners. Nothing more. He just hasn't had to beat much....

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just your typical undefeated Derby winner coming from the 20 post to win by 4+ lengths in his 4th lifetime start.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

That doesn't make him a freak. Just a very good horse. He is probably comparable to Street Sense or Hard Spun, which is great, but he is no freak. Ghostzapper was a freak. This horse has a long way to go.

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

That doesn't make him a freak. Just a very good horse. He is probably comparable to Street Sense or Hard Spun, which is great, but he is no freak. Ghostzapper was a freak. This horse has a long way to go.

Originally Posted by freddymo

I am a huge HardSpun fan and also have a good liking to Street Sense...I am not so sure Street Sense would have won this derby from the 20 post. No shot Hard Spun would had won either from the 20 either.

Originally Posted by alysheba4

.....wow, this horse HAS PAID WORKOUTS...... he in my opinoin a better horse than streat sense.......

Originally Posted by The Bid

If Hard Spun ran with these horses from the 20 I believe he would have won. SS would have had trouble from that draw because of running style.

Originally Posted by Kasept

How could Big Brown be better a 'better' horse than Street Sense at this point of comparison of their careers? For starters, Street Sense had a juvenile campaign and was a juvenile champion. Secondly, Street Sense faced a vastly and inarguably better, more accomplished group of foes/contemporaries than Big Brown, through the same comparable period of their careers so far. And by speed figure ratings from all three major evaluators of speed, Street Sense is faster than Big Brown.

Originally Posted by Kasept

How could Big Brown be better a 'better' horse than Street Sense at this point of comparison of their careers? For starters, Street Sense had a juvenile campaign and was a juvenile champion. Secondly, Street Sense faced a vastly and inarguably better, more accomplished group of foes/contemporaries than Big Brown, through the same comparable period of their careers so far. And by speed figure ratings from all three major evaluators of speed, Street Sense is faster than Big Brown.

Originally Posted by freddymo

Street Sense is not nor will ever be as talented as Big Brown. I loved Street Sense the race horse. He was trained to perfection by a master. He evolved traditionally and was simply a classy colt. He could not win this years FD from post 12 in his third start even against these rats. And he wouldn't have won this years derby in his 4th start from post 20.. Steve let's face it Big Brown really has been rushed and has handled extreme adversity.. Do I think he is the greatest colt ever no but Seattle Slew wasn't Seattle Slew till he was Seattle Slew. Lets wait and see.

Originally Posted by freddymo

Street Sense is not nor will ever be as talented as Big Brown. I loved Street Sense the race horse.

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Street Sense has run faster then Big Brown at this point in his career, but that has nothing to do with talent :rolleyes:

You are making statements that so far are not correct. Well see how it plays out but Curlin and Street Sense were separated by a nose, I don't see Big Brown in their class as of yet, certainly not on figures and on pure talent its debatable.

Originally Posted by alysheba4

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Again, Street Sense earned a PF of -52 in winning last year's Derby, Big Brown got a -68, I don't recall any race of SS's that earned a -89 like BB did in his Fla Derby. I haven't seen anything official yet but hear rumors that TG may give BB's Derby a -5...I don't have to tell anyone where that would place the race! Street Sense had accomplished more obviously as BCJ winner but to say he was faster simply isn't true, SS would have been neck and neck with Eight Belles and the filly had trouble twice!

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Street Sense has run faster then Big Brown at this point in his career, but that has nothing to do with talent :rolleyes:

You are making statements that so far are not correct. Well see how it plays out but Curlin and Street Sense were separated by a nose, I don't see Big Brown in their class as of yet, certainly not on figures and on pure talent its debatable.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

That's exactly my biggest problem with it all. He could run two more races against nothing and retire completely unproven. Slew didn't fully prove himself until he was four which this horse will never get the chance to.

Originally Posted by freddymo

I am not saying Street Sense wasn't faster in his 7 or 8th race vs. Big Brown 3rd or 4th.. Look I am far from making him the greatest ever. If the horse would have won buy 8 lengths would that have had more indication of how talented he is? I think he won as well as any colt could have given his stats... 4 races only 1 as a two year old on the grass no less and he had never rated in a race and does with complete ease from a ridiculous starting position. At this stage in there development I am pretty sure Street sense would have found the above to difficult to overcome

Originally Posted by Kasept

How could Big Brown be better a 'better' horse than Street Sense at this point of comparison of their careers? For starters, Street Sense had a juvenile campaign and was a juvenile champion. Secondly, Street Sense faced a vastly and inarguably better, more accomplished group of foes/contemporaries than Big Brown, through the same comparable period of their careers so far. And by speed figure ratings from all three major evaluators of speed, Street Sense is faster than Big Brown.

Originally Posted by freddymo

its hard they simply don't race horse that much anymore..Maybe IEAH won't hit the bid lol? I wonder if Claiborne will buy him it would be a welcomed change on the connection side.

Originally Posted by The Bid

If Spectacular Bid can lose a TC bid, then this horse can

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

That's exactly my biggest problem with it all. He could run two more races against nothing and retire completely unproven. Slew didn't fully prove himself until he was four which this horse will never get the chance to.

Originally Posted by somerfrost

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

Originally Posted by Bravado2112

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No doubt. ANYONE can "see" that the FD was more impressive than
the DERBY.:rolleyes:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I don't know that I would say a horse running alone uncontested on the lead, no matter how fast, is more impressive that what he did in the Derby.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

tongue-in-cheek, CJ

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Roman's numbers aren't very fair to off the pace runners like Street Sense.

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Hard to justify that....remember, Monarchos got a -75, by far the highest in the last 10 years. Dr Roman takes more factors into consideration than Beyer, you can read about his methodology at his site.

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Hard to justify that....remember, Monarchos got a -75, by far the highest in the last 10 years. Dr Roman takes more factors into consideration than Beyer, you can read about his methodology at his site.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I wouldn't just say what I did without having a clue what I was talking about.

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Why, you have a problem with assimilating on these forums?

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I use his numbers cause they work for me not cause he has a PhD, I refer to him as Dr Roman cause that's his academic title and it's traditional to do so. Geez! I had no idea whether you were familiar with his methodology as your comment was general in nature. Regarding Monarchos, he got his huge number for running a huge race but my point was that he was a closer...this in response to your post saying Roman's system was unfair to closers. (see...no Dr there).

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I was joking about the Dr. thing because of TFMs post, nothing more.

I have had conversations with Dr. Roman, albeit a few years ago, and he seems like a great guy. I was just giving my opinion of the numbers, that is all.

Originally Posted by somerfrost

For what it's worth, here are Dr Roman's Performance Figures (I have used these the past 10 years as they seem to me much more accurate than Beyer numbers), they do take into account aspects of the trip not considered by Beyer...the lower the number, the better:
2008 Derby:
Big Brown...-68
Eight Belles...-51
Denis of Cork...-34
2007 Derby:
Street Sense...-52
Hard Spun...-49
Curlin...-29
Also, here are the PF's for the last 10 winners:
2008...Big Brown...-68
2007...Street Sense...-52
2006...Barbaro...-60
2005...Giacomo...-48
2004...Smarty Jones...-63
2003...Funny Cide...-60
2002...War Emblem...-61
2001...Monarchos...-75
2000...FuPeg...-57
1999...Charismatic...-48
Obviously, Dr Roman's figures contradict the notion that this is a bad group, except for Monarchos who absolutely freaked in the 2001 Derby, Big Brown stands above recent winners. Time will tell but for a horse to get such a number in only his fourth lifetime start would seem to indicate that his PF's will continue to increase. Every year, I hear "this is a crappy crop of three year olds"...especially after a horse such as Barbaro, Smarty Jones and Big Brown romp in the Derby...of course it's way too early to judge and as Kasept pointed out, many Derby horses were that in name only as their connections caught "Derby fever" as some do every year. Once they sort themselves out, some will be turf horses, sprinters and yes...like almost every year, claimers, while "new faces" will appear to challenge...I look forward to the Preakness and the next wave of contenders. But if he stays healthy...Big Brown will be something special, as a fan, I can only dream of him and Curlin facing off sometime down the road. I know recent history indicates this may never happen but that's the beauty of this sport...the possibilities!

Originally Posted by freddymo

its hard they simply don't race horse that much anymore..Maybe IEAH won't hit the bid lol? I wonder if Claiborne will buy him it would be a welcomed change on the connection side.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I dunno. I think it's a great thing that he's by Boundary, because I doubt there's any serious clamor to breed to him at this point. If he wins the Crown, definitely the breeders will come calling, but even if he just wins the Derby and Preakness, I still think he'll need to do more. Though nothing would surprise me at this point with all of the early retirements I've seen.