This is incorrect or confused. The MDN win and Blue Grass both came at KEE... You may mean his ALW win at Churchill on closing day as a point of comparison of his dirt/poly form.

I would think a win at the Downs has merit in evaluating his Derby prospects...

And considering how individual flop races are being crossed out on several competitors' PP's during this Derby run-up, I don't know why Monba supporters couldn't cross out his difficult FOY and be happy with his credentials. He's not for me, but he's certainly as appealing as several others being supported on flimsier evidence.

I see how what I said could be misread.

I meant what I said, his BIG races, or good races, were his maiden win and his Blue Grass, I wasn't impressed with his ALW win at Churchill.

Watch his maiden win vs his Churchill win, side by side or back to back and tell me which one looked looked better. Which one the horse looked more comfortable in his stride. This horse wants no part of the dirt. I will concede that the argument is weak given he has won over Churchill, and his lone dirt start this year he was squeezed pretty bad, but I just see a different horse on the poly, compared to his lone dirt win.

i'll stick with the world record holder at 6F. he's liking the longer distance just fine, unlike others in this field. i like his style, sitting just behind the lead.

of course we'll have to wait until KD day to see how the track plays.

until derby week i'll chill.

Here's Monba's one dirt win - he had the kind of tactical position straight out of the perfect trip pic thread - and didn't exactly parlay the great stalking trip into a decisive win.

If you like sweet trip wins with ordinary figures this race might be for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wkvb3iZZpR0


If anyone likes this horse at all they simply have to believe he's vastly improved.

I think Bob Black Jack is a far better horse than more than half of this field - I also think he's one of the better bets in the race to finish last because of the pace, distance, and equipment change.

As soon as I saw his list, I forarded it to a friend with essentially the same comments you have. This is downright nutty.

i wouldn't like his top 2 with your money !

I think this thread further supports the notion this crop is crazy, wide-open and hard to figure.

Z Fortune could be cycling towards a new top. If the Oaklawn figure is a bit high (there was a dicussion about this), then he realistically could be cycling back to a new top.

The problem with these horses is when a horse does put in an good effort, people act as if they are allergic to it, because we have seen so many average races in the big events all spring long.

Can someone please explain the appeal of Visionaire to me? I'm not getting it.

Apparently his non-threatening fifth in the Blue Grass wowed many a prospective bettor.

I'm reluctant to completely toss him because he does seem to always fire and has at least some semblance of a closing kick, but I'm not in love with him either..

Love it Steve. Here is my take:

Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA

Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.

2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.

3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.

4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.

5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.

Negatives:
1) Couldn't run down a blistering pace in the Wood and came home in a somewhat slow time.


MONBA
Postives: None

Negatives: Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Finally, for those sheep that can't look beyond the winners of the prep races (and believe me, that accounts for 85% of the betting public):

Derby winners that lost their final prep:
2007: Street Sense (2nd in Blue Grass)
2005: Giacomo (off the board in SA Derby)
2001: Monarchos (2nd in Wood)
1999: Charasmatic (off the board in SA Derby)
1998: Real Quiet (2nd in SA Derby)
1997: Silver Charm (2nd in SA Derby)
1995: Thunder Gulch (off the board in Blue Grass)
1994: Go for Gin (off the board in Florida Derby)
1993: Sea Hero (off the board in Blue Grass)
1992: Lil E Tee (2nd in Arkansas Derby)
1990: Unbridled (3rd in Blue Grass)

5 of last 18 (28%) Derby winners missed the board in their last prep before the Derby.

Who gives a crap? Blackberry Road is bred to be a monster too.

We're picking winners based on trainers? How's that worked for Pletcher fans?

So did Anak Nakal.

Eh, that's subjective, so I can't argue.

I shudder to think what his first four gears are if that's his fifth.

the overdue trainer angle? normally you only hear that one when you're at the track or OTB and its usually from a guy using a safety pin to help keep his trousers up.

Wow, I couldn't possibly disagree more. Court Vision hasn't improved a step since his IRQ 6 months ago. His Wood and FOY were plenty enough to prove he is a SLOW horse and does just enough to clunk up for a check. His 5th gear is the fact that he hasn't run a step all race and is passing the tiring ones. I am not a Monba tout but at least he appears to have improved as a 3yo and has the style and talent to work out a decent trip in the Derby.

Didnt Charasmatic win the Lexington?

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin That's where you find most of your Derby winners, not in the past performances.

And I will not soon forget you giving us Bluegrass Cat on the improve along with Barbaro 2 years back.. And Street Sense last year became an include on top instead of an exclude thanks to your keen eye during training at Churchill. Thanks.

"And Street Sense last year became an include on top instead of an exclude thanks to your keen eye during training at Churchill."

You're right- Street Sense was a total toss before that.

Absoultely !!! Yes we all know the GREAT record of Juvenile BC winners.. You burn much over the years betting them wise ass ??

Personally I toss all horses that don't have three syllable names and pretty silks.

If you were chucking him based just on that.. You need way more help with this than Steve Haskin could ever provide.

Worked for me about 20 times in a row dude , I didn't burn a spot on my ticket with the Juve champ ?? How about you ?? Ever think that peaking to win the Juvenile takes its toll on a horse ? Betting is all about following trends but of course from your sarcastic post you know it all already.

PS...

We got your post the first time there was no need to post again... I like your handle though.

Just getting around to this thread, good for him to stick out his neck and reputation with Monba, though I strongly disagree with this particular upset choice.

I liked Monba in the Bluegrass, posting that I did an exacta box of he and Pyro-a dumb bet. I liked Monba from a synthetic surface angle only and it could have paid off if I'd wagered correctly.


Monba will bomb on dirt

I was thinking the same.

Oh! I see the attraction to this thread now. Let's not let the back-and-forth disintegrate into a YouTube level of discourse,though

jms!? I'm afraid I'm strongly with old warhorses like DruGs and Dahoss on this one

And what do you have against rolling another one?

Here is the deal.. Haskin knows more about horses and racing than most on this thread combined. He was getting dissed. I simply pointed out that the last 2 years he has had some observations during derby week on training that helped sway me back onto horses that I was considering tossing out at the top of my ticket thats all. These juveniles than proceeded to assume that my entire source of handicapping was based on what Steve said... They also bashed my thoughts on an immediate throw out of the juvenile champ (cept last year) irrespective of the fact that it worked some 20 odd imes in a row. There are some that basically simply attack every post that is put on these boards it somehow validates who they are. My fault for getting into a pissing contest. I'm done on the topic.

As analyzed earlier, it didn't work 20-some odd years in a row because only 14 juvenile champs actually made the Derby starting gate. It's really tough taking a stand against a horse who isn't even competing in a given race.

Hey jms, thanks for the civil response

Dude are you a lawyer ? Nice value added though nitpicking my response. Ok 14 odd times over 20 years , you win, you are much smarter than I... No Mas!

Hoss would you like to up for a beer when I get to Saratoga ?