its pretty much a death sentence if you ask me for a horse making its 2 turn debut. He'll need to be a monster to get it done from out there. the data for nine furlongs at the new Gulfstream makes it clear that its one of the extreme cases when post position really does count in a big way.
maybe he'll be the first to do it, that would be impressive.

Who exactly did Barbaro beat in that race? Those BEHIND him had distinguished careers.

I haven't looked the field over but I can't believe there's much in it. If BB is any kind of horse, and I'm not talking about a ***** NEED EVERYTHING ITS OWN WAY TYPE, like War Pass, then he sits comfortably outside and rolls.

As for all the rest of the concern: BB won't be a price. Why in the world would I be gearing up to bet this horse when there's so much OTHER VALUE, in OTHER races out there.

You guys take your STAR ENVY (or STAR wanna be envy) very seriously here.

Give me data that's MEANINGFUL, Jim.

Give me information on horses with LEGITIMATE SHOTS that broke from the outside. How many could there have possibly been in the past 20 years, let alone since they REDID the track?

...

I think its good. Come on, if brown is what he looks like, then we don't want the public to switch over.
he wins by 2 instead of 9 , and by and large the public doesn't want a story about overcoming track dynamics.
The sheets or graphs or beyers write 1 article, big deal. If he wins here, then pray that Pyro and War Pass win their preps.

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

Remember the FOY when we heard how Adriano was so good he'd be able to overcome the 12 post?

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but how many horses have started in posts 11 and 12 over the past 4 years?

Here come the trolls...

Exactly, Barbaro beat NOTHING. And BB might be in a similar situation.

Dig deeper. Give me stats with ODDS. Give me some names/races of horses losing from the outside post that actually had a shot to win the race. Even though it's over a 4 year period, I can't believe that there are many races, given the 1 or 2 carded each week.


I agree with the last part. If I'm waiting around to make a killing on BB and then feel skunked when he gets the outside post, I'm definitely in need of a method tuneup.

I hope you're kidding if you think the post won't severely compromise Big Brown's chances. I just commented cause it's just funny to see a replay of the Fountain of Youth thread already with someone claiming the unproven horse from the 12 hole will crush the field.

Who in that race had a distinguished career? Sunriver? I don't have the PPs handy but I don't think there was much in that race and Barbaro ran his heart out to barely do it and he was from the 10th post. BB is drawing even worse.

I wasn't going to bet Big Brown before the draw and I certainly am not going to after. He could end up being the best horse in this field...although I doubt it...but he isn't winning.

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5TRUF. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

I'm not doubting that Big Brown is a very good horse... I'm just going with the facts and the fact is that no horse has won from that post in a 9 furlong race.

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

I've heard worse ideas.

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

Here you go...

GP 1 Year stats
9.0 Dirt FAST - 31 Races
Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 48% winners
Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 13% Winners
Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 1 of 6
Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 6

9.0 Dirt WET - 8 Races
Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 50% winners
Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 38% Winners
Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1
Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1

I thought he really had to muscle his way into position early, and never really relaxed as much as you would like. Kind of wanted to keep making headway all the way around to the lead. He has the excuse of the outside post, &he relaxed pretty well for being asked early, but the derby is going to throw the same kind of pressure at him or worse. I'd like to see even more patience here.

The stats are big. and they make sense. you get 11 seconds run up from the gate to the turn. You don't have time to swing behind, and you can't clear. You pretty much have to get forwardly placed,take a little contact and be happy with about 5 wide.

Big Brown fits those requirements, but we've only seen 2 races. He may be great he may be good , he may be too fragile.

How much does that little burst and being 5 wide cost a Big Brown in terms of lengths when compared with his rivals? 5 lengths? 8 lengths?

0 for 36 from the outside five posts is a little too much to believe it is just a few fluke cases and there have been no actual good horses among those 36. The short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream has a huge impact on these races.

'06 FL DERBY


10. Barbaro (1.60)
7. Sharp Humor (6.40)
5. Sun River (4.30) 3
11. Sam's Ace (34.70)
1. Hesanoldsalt (39.90)
8. High Blues (18.30)
2. Flashy Bull (4.00)
9. Charming Image (92.00)
3. Saint Augustus (25.50)
4. Doc Cheney (25.70)
6. Rehoboth (9.70)

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

1) Fierce Wind (Cornelio Velasquez)
2) Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz)
3) Da' Tara (Joe Bravo)
4) Tomcito (Jorge Chavez)
5) Cool Gator (Eddie Castro)
6) Nistle's Crunch (Julien Leparoux)
7) B B Frank (Javier Castellano)
8) Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa)
9) Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano)
10) Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas)
11) Face the Cat (John Velazquez)
12) Big Brown (Kent Desormeoux)

For me to comment precisely on this I need to review all the 2 turn races of the meet. The problem is that only recently have I updated my data where I can look at entire cards together. Which means I need to look through just about all my charts. And, as I'm busy with work, I can't do it. Moreover, I don't have enough interest in the race to do so.

I did, however, take a quick look at the beginning of March, a handful of races, and noticed that it just might not be as bad as everyone thinks. I found a winner from the 2nd widest post and a bunch of others that basically had no shot in the race as they had no speed. What is apparent is that you need to be close to win.

I can understand the argument that the wide post compromises the chances of a horse that needs to be with the pace and gets hung wide but why would it hurt a closer? Though, the speed bias is probably enough to mitigate some of this.
No matter what the data tells me, this makes no sense. A horse can break from the 12, settle behind and inside early, make one run on the turn and, assuming there's pace and some moves in the race, get a perfect trip.

1. Fierce Wind (Zito/Velasquez)
2. Smooth Air (Stutts/Cruz)
3. Da'Tara (Zito/Bravo)
4. Tomcito (Zanelli/Chavez)
5. Cool Gator (Vella/Castro)
6. Nistle's Crunch (McPeek/Leparouz)
7. B B Frank (Tarrant/Castellano)
8. Elysium Fields (Tagg/Coa)
9. Hey Byrn (Plesa/Lezcano)
10. Majestic Warrior (Mott/Douglas)
11. Face the Cat (Pletcher/Velasquez)
12. Big Brown (Cutrow/Desormeaux)

with only 11 seconds you dont really have time to drop to the rear either. (unless you were an extreme deep closer who always started extremely slow)

the only way to do win it is bull up out of the gate, take a brush and be happy with 5 wide, and then beat the others.

Wow, some tough draws. No excuses for Tomcito here, if he's the real deal he has to do well with that draw. Same goes for Fierce Wind and Smooth Air. I guess Elysium Fields is in a slightly better position than the other top three but hard to get excited about post 8.

okay tell me if this has more meaning for you. I cannot answer your questions about which horse broke from the 12 post in the past that had a realistic chance. What I can do is give you some data from my database which covers 82 nine furlong races run in the country this year. by comparing the Gulfstream results to all other tracks I think you'll agree that the post position bias is obvious. you are correct that there is not much data for post 12. there are only four starters in my sample from post 12 and no winners anywhere. but you can see by the trend that is established from the inner posts that do have a larger sample size.

below I am giving the impact values for each rail position at nine furlongs for Gulfstream alone, and then for all tracks other than Gulfstream. for anyone that doesn't know, impact values give you an idea of whether a particular position is under or over represented with regard to whole. A figure over 1 means more winners come from that post than the average, under 1 means fewer winners than the average are winning.

impact values by post position
pos 1, Gulf 2.49, other .71
pos 2, Gulf 1.94, other 1.13
pos 3, Gulf 1.38, other .71
pos 4, Gulf .55, other 1.13
pos 5, Gulf .55, other 1.44
pos 6, Gulf .31, other .98
pos 7, Gulf .86, other 1.25
pos 8, Gulf 0.0, other .30
pos 9, Gulf 0.0, other .88
pos 10, Gulf 0.0, other 1.67
pos 11, Gulf 0.0, other 1.07
pos 12, Gulf 0.0, other 0.0

It plain as day how the inner posts at Gulstream have a much larger share of the winners compared to the distribution at other tracks.

A more knowledgeable person than I has suggested that they will likely scratch, and target another race. I know I would especially since he needs the earnings to make the big race.

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I'd consider the same with Face the Cat as well. Hawthorne is always a possibility too.

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

I actually agree. I think BB could win here, but he will have to spot his rivals 5-8. If any of them are game they are asking a ton of effort from Big Brown. He won both races on talent alone, and has suffered hooves. You want him to peak in Ky.

http://www.emiratesracing.com/era/rcNadAlSheba.cfm

For those of you that are metrically challenge the World Cup is 2000 meters so there is a 400 meter (1/4 mile) run to the first turn. Should be plenty of time to find position.

How do you know? He had very little chance the only time he tried dirt. He runs up close and drew the 12 hole against a good field.

Last chart since I need to get back to work. This is about as severe a case of inside bias you will ever see. The inside 3 posts win MUCH more than they should on a fair track. I will definitely look at Fierce Wind and Smooth Air a lot more closely now that I know the draw.

Date Race# Cond Class WinPP FieldSize
3/28/2007 1 fst M16 1 6
3/31/2007 5 fst MSW 3 8
3/31/2007 6 fst NW1 5 8
3/31/2007 10 fst GR3 3 7
3/31/2007 11 fst GR1 3 9
4/1/2007 3 fst C35 1 6
4/11/2007 5 gd AOC 5 6
4/11/2007 7 gd STR 1 5
4/12/2007 5 sly M50 5 6
4/19/2007 1 fst STR 6 7
1/5/2008 3 sly MSW 4 10
1/7/2008 6 fst C32 6 11
1/16/2008 8 fst NW2 2 6
1/19/2008 6 fst MSW 2 11
1/21/2008 3 fst STR 1 6
1/21/2008 8 fst NW1 1 8
1/24/2008 2 my NW1 1 6
1/26/2008 6 fst NW2 1 6
1/26/2008 9 fst STK 2 11
1/27/2008 3 fst NW2 4 5
2/2/2008 8 fst MSW 2 11
2/2/2008 9 fst GR1 1 8
2/4/2008 6 fst NW1 2 8
2/9/2008 4 sly MSW 1 8
2/11/2008 6 fst AOC 2 7
2/15/2008 3 fst AOC 4 5
2/17/2008 6 fst AOC 3 6
2/24/2008 4 fst MSW 5 8
2/24/2008 9 fst GR2 1 12
3/1/2008 8 fst NW1 3 7
3/2/2008 3 fst NW2 3 6
3/5/2008 3 fst C18 7 8
3/6/2008 6 fst MSW 3 12
3/8/2008 7 fst MSW 1 7
3/9/2008 9 fst GR2 5 7
3/13/2008 8 fst NW1 3 5
3/15/2008 9 fst GR3 2 8
3/23/2008 2 sly STR 1 6
3/23/2008 7 sly MSW 7 8

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.