Derby Trail Forums
Page 2 of 4 < 1 2 34 >
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   3/8 (FG): LA Derby Day (6 Stakes) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20591)

jcs11204 03-03-2008 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Curlin is an absolute cinch in the World Cup.

The real two questions are how will he come back? - and how will he take to the synthetic tracks?

To me, the only thing standing in the way of him being defeated again are those two obstacles.

I don't see a War Pass developing enough to be good enough to beat him - it would really take WP developing much better than I expect, getting an uncontested lead, and perhaps even needing a real speed friendly racetrack to have a shot at holding him off.

Pyro is a fine animal - I have doubts he will develop enough to beat Curlin for sure. Unlike War Pass - Pyro will never EVER have a chance to win a misleading circumstancial race over Curlin ... while War Pass has the correct style to steal something.

With WP and Pyro being 3-year-olds, and with so many different routes to take in there divisons - I doubt they ever meet up with Curlin on a natural dirt track anyway.
i think your giving curlin way way to much love, the world cup is going to be a hard race, and if he wins it, i doubt we will see him in this country again.
well armed

jcs11204 03-03-2008 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Daytona will be 7/5 or 6/5 in this race. Proudinsky should take some cash

I am definitely not a ML guy but i will give it a shot

1: Buffalo Man - 10/1
2: Yate's Black Cat - 15/1
3: Brilliant - 6/1
4: Jazz Quest - 10/1
5: Elusive Fort - 15/1
6: French Beret - 20/1
7: Fracas - 12/1
8: Proudinsky - 4/1
9: Twilight Meteor - 12/1
10: Daytona - 7/5
buffalo man is the play of the day, i will be using him in every bet, hes a very nice horse

blackthroatedwind 03-03-2008 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcs11204
i would guess j be k is going to run good, especially with kent

He may run well ( though I highly doubt it ).....but he can't run good.

blackthroatedwind 03-03-2008 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcs11204
buffalo man is the play of the day, i will be using him in every bet, hes a very nice horse

:rolleyes:

blackthroatedwind 03-03-2008 09:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
i hope alot of people think yankee bravo has no chance......

No chance is maybe a little much but he is probably about as unlikely a competitor as exists in this race.

NTamm1215 03-03-2008 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
No chance is maybe a little much but he is probably about as unlikely a competitor as exists in this race.

Yankee Bravo has a chance...























































If they let him run in the Mervin Muniz 30 minutes earlier carrying 111.

NT

Coach Pants 03-03-2008 09:31 PM
I think it would be foolish to try and beat Daytona just off what you think Alex Solis is going to do. He's actually not riding that bad at the moment and this horse is on form and looks like he'll be alone on the lead again.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-03-2008 09:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcs11204
i think your giving curlin way way to much love, the world cup is going to be a hard race, and if he wins it, i doubt we will see him in this country again.
well armed
Well Armed was a nice 9th beaten about 27 lengths behind Discreet Cat, Invasor, and Sympatico Bribon the last time he was over there.

I'm sure those synthetic track wins make him elidgible to give Curlin a huge scare.

cmorioles 03-03-2008 09:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Well Armed was a nice 9th beaten about 27 lengths behind Discreet Cat and Invasor the last time he was over there.

I'm sure those synthetic track wins make him eligible to give Curlin a huge scare.
He wasn't that good...he was 11th. What ever happened to Simpatico Bribon?

By the way, FTFY.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-03-2008 10:00 PM
He - like the great Dynever - vanished after his Dubai race. They claimed both he and his undefeated at the time Group 1 stablemate Gold For Sale were both drugged in that race.

However, that quote came from Ian Jory - who trained both SB and GFS - so it should be taken with a grain of salt.

miraja2 03-03-2008 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
i hope alot of people think yankee bravo has no chance......
They should.

In the California Derby his time for the 8.5 furlongs was 1:44.57. The other race run at that distance at GG that day was won by a rather average n2x horse entered for a tag in 1:44.18 (and that one was carrying more weight than Yankee Bravo).
Neither his pedigree nor his runing style at all indicate that he will enjoy the switch to dirt.
As far as I am concerned, he would be an absolute shocker in this race.

cmorioles 03-03-2008 10:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
He - like the great Dynever - vanished after his Dubai race. They claimed both he and his undefeated at the time Group 1 stablemate Gold For Sale were both drugged in that race.

However, that quote came from Ian Jory - who trained both SB and GFS - so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
I'm sure Dynever, whatever he is doing, is doing it second best.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-03-2008 11:20 PM
I laughed.

You remain in sharp form. I would have expected a "bounce" off your trip to Afghanistan.

miraja2 03-03-2008 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
I'm sure Dynever, whatever he is doing, is doing it second best.
He isn't even named Dynever any longer.
His new name in Saudi Arabia is "Ittasak."

cmorioles 03-04-2008 12:49 AM
I am aware of that, I just refuse to acknowledge it. Most likely his current name is glue.

jcs11204 03-04-2008 03:09 AM
Grasshopper
 
Is he sitting on a huge year ? I think so....
but i have a thing for him, had one of my biggest scores of the saratoga seasson with him in a allowance race, then had him in a straight exacta in the travers.

docicu3 03-04-2008 04:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
It don't matter with who is going with him because Solis is going to try and fight this horse. He tried in his other races. Solis is not an open up on the backstretch jock. Smith just let this horse break and do what he wanted, and then he grabbed him at the end of the 1st turn.

If Smith was on this horse, the 6/5 would be justified and the horse probably wouldn't lose, but for some reason he bailed, and he isn't at Bay Meadows so obviously something is hot on Saturday at Santa Anita for him to pass this mount.

Back to Indian Blessing, do you say she won't lose because there is no pace or because she is that much better then Proud Spell. Proud Spell was off a ~100 day layoff and finished pretty well(in front a couple jumps after the wire). Jones is 26% 2nd off the layoff with two good works coming, all at FG, where IB had to ship in, then ship back out, and now ship back to FG. I'd like to know Baffert's numbers with this 3rd start off the layoff horses. He really has his horses cranked first out (maiden's and off the layoff) and I might be wrong but alot of them tail off until the next layoff. Gomez really rode IB down the lane, alot harder then I realized. I don't think IB has a turn off button, if she did, then I would be agreeing 100% with her lockness. Now, I am obviously not touting what will be a 8/5 shot, into a horse that will be 3/5 or 2/5 but I still think she isn't a lock, given her last performance was not that impressive.
Smith may be on Kazimira for Sheriff/Moss in the Santa Anita Oaks on Saturday. Who knows maybe he is also on Zenyatta for Sheriffs/Moss in the other G1 which goes on Sunday the Santa Margarita. Flores can't ride them all and somebody has to step up and ride these horses in these 300K races. They probably draw in a day or so....

lemoncrush 03-04-2008 08:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I think it would be foolish to try and beat Daytona just off what you think Alex Solis is going to do. He's actually not riding that bad at the moment and this horse is on form and looks like he'll be alone on the lead again.
I think it may be foolist to try to beat Daytona, strictly on the "Mike Smith" off angle which has netted us so many winners over the past couple years.
:)

miraja2 03-04-2008 09:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcs11204
Is he sitting on a huge year ? I think so....
but i have a thing for him, had one of my biggest scores of the saratoga seasson with him in a allowance race, then had him in a straight exacta in the travers.
:rolleyes:

Scav 03-04-2008 09:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lemoncrush
I think it may be foolist to try to beat Daytona, strictly on the "Mike Smith" off angle which has netted us so many winners over the past couple years.
:)
And Solis is better? I agree that both have had their moments, but they both fit certain horses now. Solis does not fit Daytona. It pains me to tout against Daytona because he has been so good to me (nailed him singled on the end of pick threes for Del Mar, Hollywood and SA wins for 4 figure scores) but I am telling you, go back and see what Solis did with this horse when he rode him, and then look at the difference when Smith rode him.

Daytona will not win with Solis on his back. I really hope that Smith rides him when he comes to Arlington because he will win the Million if he does

philcski 03-04-2008 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
He had a brutal trip in the Holy Bull - hung very wide on both turns.
started from post 13 in the HB. had a rough trip in the La Derby, too, and only got beat 3-4 lengths by a very good horse (Peace Rules).

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
She'll lose eventually. I just don't think it's Saturday. Obviously there is no pace, which helps IB out a ton, but I also think she's that much better than Proud Spell.
I agree. I'm hoping she's undefeated heading into the Ky Oaks, where I will UNLOAD against her. The Churchill stretch will cause her to drop anchor and another bomb will win.

Sightseek 03-04-2008 09:34 AM
It's going to take a serious effort for Euroears to go 6 for 6 on Saturday.

lemoncrush 03-04-2008 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
And Solis is better? I agree that both have had their moments, but they both fit certain horses now. Solis does not fit Daytona. It pains me to tout against Daytona because he has been so good to me (nailed him singled on the end of pick threes for Del Mar, Hollywood and SA wins for 4 figure scores) but I am telling you, go back and see what Solis did with this horse when he rode him, and then look at the difference when Smith rode him.

Daytona will not win with Solis on his back. I really hope that Smith rides him when he comes to Arlington because he will win the Million if he does
I was mostly kidding. Solis has killed me more times than I care to remember with bad rides, but lately he's been surprisingly above average. May just be on the main track, though, as I can't remember him getting me a horse home on the lawn in a long time.

Scav 03-04-2008 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I agree. I'm hoping she's undefeated heading into the Ky Oaks, where I will UNLOAD against her. The Churchill stretch will cause her to drop anchor and another bomb will win.
Even if she runs 2nd here they will bet the **** out of her at Churchill

brianwspencer 03-04-2008 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I agree. I'm hoping she's undefeated heading into the Ky Oaks, where I will UNLOAD against her. The Churchill stretch will cause her to drop anchor and another bomb will win.
I'd be more than happy to see that happen, too. She should win again on Saturday which just moves it one step closer to her being unbeaten and insanely bet on Oaks day.

She's definitely not my favorite.

Travis Stone 03-04-2008 02:19 PM
Tale of Ekati has never won beyond 7 furlongs, nor around two turns. He's coming off a big layoff and they select this race for the return?

SniperSB23 03-04-2008 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Tale of Ekati has never won beyond 7 furlongs, nor around two turns. He's coming off a big layoff and they select this race for the return?
Same scenario for Majestic Warrior.

Travis Stone 03-04-2008 02:55 PM
Yeah, they both look like rush jobs with the KD in mind.

Scav 03-04-2008 03:01 PM
I can tell you this, if you find the winner of the turf race (Race 7), you will be able to get 35/1 or 45/1 on the Pk4, with Pyro (3/5), Indian Blessing (2/5) and Grasshopper (1/1). Good value as long as Daytona loses. How I would do it

Grasshopper($4.80)/Daytona($6.40)/Indian Blessing($3.40)/Pyro($3.80) paid $45 per $1 last time

If you find the winner and you can turn a bunch of chalk 'locks' into 45/1, not bad

blackthroatedwind 03-04-2008 03:03 PM
Why are you conceding the race to Grasshopper? I'm not saying he isn't the likeliest winner but what if he doesn't get the same perfect trip he got last time?

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-04-2008 03:05 PM
and how will you beat daytona . solis is not the answer.......

blackthroatedwind 03-04-2008 03:09 PM
Daytona looks too good to be true.

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-04-2008 03:11 PM
tha tagg runner may do it ..

blackthroatedwind 03-04-2008 03:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
tha tagg runner may do it ..
He or Proudinsky are the logical other horses. Not a very compelling field that's for sure.

jcs11204 03-04-2008 03:22 PM
buffalo man... pyro is not a lock.
grasshopper and indian blessing are

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-04-2008 03:27 PM
mag graduate ..2nd off the layoff first blinks..take it to the bank..and prado..

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-04-2008 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
It's going to take all the Pletcher magic in the world to get him home my friend, IMO.
you can count on robbie fng up one ride..maybe two.. and who knows if allday wil be in town..:eek:

Coach Pants 03-04-2008 04:10 PM
I keep trying to convince myself that Encaustic will upset.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:57 PM.
Page 2 of 4 < 1 2 34 >
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.