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-   -   Commentator.. nice! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19449)

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2008 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Commentator, her first foal, was foaled in March of 2001. Seems like Distorted Humor got his dam when she was a early 2-year-old.

Yet another horse who had done enough.

King Glorious 01-17-2008 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Why not? Heck, try to find a grass course that favors speed, I could see him being really tough!

Better than going in a 6f race against quicker horses where he has little hope, or going in a ybred race for very little money.

I'm with you here in asking "why not?" I don't understand that comment Andy made. What does it mean "it's just not what you do"? Don't you do what you want to do with your horse? Forget about traditions and long held beliefs. Have an open mind to at least try different things. Putting him in races like the BC Sprint and the Forego should be the things that you don't do when it's extremely obvious that that's not his game. His game is in races of 8-9f (remember his Whitney?) where he's more likely to be able to control the pace and has the stamina to finish. If there aren't many mile races on the dirt for him, what's so wrong with at least trying the grass? It's not like if he fails, his career is over.

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2008 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I'm with you here in asking "why not?" I don't understand that comment Andy made. What does it mean "it's just not what you do"? Don't you do what you want to do with your horse? Forget about traditions and long held beliefs. Have an open mind to at least try different things. Putting him in races like the BC Sprint and the Forego should be the things that you don't do when it's extremely obvious that that's not his game. His game is in races of 8-9f (remember his Whitney?) where he's more likely to be able to control the pace and has the stamina to finish. If there aren't many mile races on the dirt for him, what's so wrong with at least trying the grass? It's not like if he fails, his career is over.


Everything every trainer does is not the right thing. They will all tell you this. However, when a trainer has a substantial resume of success it seems a little presumptuous for any of us to think we know better than them.

Commentator was 4:5 when he ran in the Forego. You show me a trainer that doesn't run a horse that is 4:5 in a Grade 1 and I will show you a moron. Commentator was 9:1 in the BC Sprint. You tell me the turf race that was more prestigious where he would have been a shorter price. One could argue that the best course of action is to consider your equity and go where it's highest. Especially when you have a horse that you pray can stay sound for even a short period of time.

Frankly, the person who thinks Indian Blessing should be pointing for the KY Derby is in absolutely no position to recommend the course of any horse.

hoovesupsideyourhead 01-17-2008 09:02 PM

does that make the donn still a bad move..lol

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2008 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
does that make the donn still a bad move..lol

Not, apparently, if it was a turf race.

King Glorious 01-17-2008 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Everything every trainer does is not the right thing. They will all tell you this. However, when a trainer has a substantial resume of success it seems a little presumptuous for any of us to think we know better than them.

Commentator was 4:5 when he ran in the Forego. You show me a trainer that doesn't run a horse that is 4:5 in a Grade 1 and I will show you a moron. Commentator was 9:1 in the BC Sprint. You tell me the turf race that was more prestigious where he would have been a shorter price. One could argue that the best course of action is to consider your equity and go where it's highest. Especially when you have a horse that you pray can stay sound for even a short period of time.

Frankly, the person who thinks Indian Blessing should be pointing for the KY Derby is in absolutely no position to recommend the course of any horse.

Just because someone has a great record of success doesn't mean that they are never wrong. Wayne Lukas is arguably the most successful trainer in the history of the TC series and it's preps. Does it mean that his decision to press on with Going Wild was a good one? Does his record mean that nobody should have the right to question the move? I don't believe his record makes him beyond reproach. Same goes for Zito. Even so, I didn't say Zito was at fault for the places he ran the horse. I don't know who makes the call on where the horse runs. For all I know, the owner could be the one making the decisions against Zito's better judgment. If the only people that should be qualified to question anything on this forum are those that have a better track record in the game than Zito, I suspect that it would get pretty quiet around here pretty fast.

Who in the world cares if Commentator was 4/5 in the race? Does that mean that Zito should always run his horses where the public thinks he has the best shot? Using the odds a horse goes off at to suggest that they deserve those odds is weak. Arazi was the favorite in the 1992 BC Mile. I believe Favorite Trick held that same role in the 1998 running of the same race. Did either of them deserve to be? Absolutely not. So what do odds mean? I told anyone that would listen, and it's on here in print, that he had NO SHOT to win. I've said many times that he'll never win a top level sprint race. Wouldn't matter if he was 1/10. What if they had maybe tried the grass before last year's BC? What if he liked it? Then they could have considered the Mile instead of the Sprint.

Finally, I'm not sure what Indian Blessing has to do with any of this other than your constant need to try and belittle people's opinions. But at least you should be right about it when you do bring her up. I don't believe that I said she SHOULD run in the Derby. I don't believe I said she should be even POINTING to the Derby. If she were mine, that is not the direction I would be going with her. I said that I thought that at this point, I think she is one of the top five 3yos and Derby prospects out there. I don't think though that she's got a shot against War Pass or El Gato Malo so I wouldn't be looking to take them on unless I saw something in her next couple of races that told me that I have to go there.

pgardn 01-17-2008 09:29 PM

Same old same old
with this horse.
Give em an easy run
in the first part of a race,
uncontested early, he looks
like a monster.

He can win sprints.
If they go 22.5, 46 and he
leads these fractions.
Good luck with that.

hoovesupsideyourhead 01-17-2008 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Just because someone has a great record of success doesn't mean that they are never wrong. Wayne Lukas is arguably the most successful trainer in the history of the TC series and it's preps. Does it mean that his decision to press on with Going Wild was a good one? Does his record mean that nobody should have the right to question the move? I don't believe his record makes him beyond reproach. Same goes for Zito. Even so, I didn't say Zito was at fault for the places he ran the horse. I don't know who makes the call on where the horse runs. For all I know, the owner could be the one making the decisions against Zito's better judgment. If the only people that should be qualified to question anything on this forum are those that have a better track record in the game than Zito, I suspect that it would get pretty quiet around here pretty fast.

Who in the world cares if Commentator was 4/5 in the race? Does that mean that Zito should always run his horses where the public thinks he has the best shot? Using the odds a horse goes off at to suggest that they deserve those odds is weak. Arazi was the favorite in the 1992 BC Mile. I believe Favorite Trick held that same role in the 1998 running of the same race. Did either of them deserve to be? Absolutely not. So what do odds mean? I told anyone that would listen, and it's on here in print, that he had NO SHOT to win. I've said many times that he'll never win a top level sprint race. Wouldn't matter if he was 1/10. What if they had maybe tried the grass before last year's BC? What if he liked it? Then they could have considered the Mile instead of the Sprint.

Finally, I'm not sure what Indian Blessing has to do with any of this other than your constant need to try and belittle people's opinions. But at least you should be right about it when you do bring her up. I don't believe that I said she SHOULD run in the Derby. I don't believe I said she should be even POINTING to the Derby. If she were mine, that is not the direction I would be going with her. I said that I thought that at this point, I think she is one of the top five 3yos and Derby prospects out there. I don't think though that she's got a shot against War Pass or El Gato Malo so I wouldn't be looking to take them on unless I saw something in her next couple of races that told me that I have to go there.

you know el gatos fig was way downgraded due to a goof speed bias..

Cajungator26 01-17-2008 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
i liked this horsie, and his trainer, as much as anybody, but eventually ya gotta make room for the ones that are actually doing somethin...i drop certain ones outta my stable mail confident that if they are in a race (stakes) i wanna bet, i'll know about it---he is in that category...once every 6 months...bye-bye

LOL

And the alcohol has spoken.

Cajungator26 01-17-2008 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
mrs hunter

Could be Mrs. Paul on January 29th. :rolleyes:

Danzig 01-17-2008 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Could be Mrs. Paul on January 29th. :rolleyes:

you going to sell frozen fish?!;)

Danzig 01-17-2008 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
mrs hunter

and that wasn't alcohol...it was knowing what i'm talkin bout

glad someone does!

Danzig 01-17-2008 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
i was with children long enuf today...if u don't understand my writing u can either go back to school or sit down and shut up and think for a minute...god gave u a brain, use it!

it's really not worth the effort.

Cajungator26 01-17-2008 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
i was with children long enuf today...if u don't understand my writing u can either go back to school or sit down and shut up and think for a minute...god gave u a brain, use it!

I drank too much tonight to decipher any of this. Nite, y'all!

The Indomitable DrugS 01-17-2008 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Finally, I'm not sure what Indian Blessing has to do with any of this

I hope you still aren't willing to argue steadfastly that she doesn't have stamina issues to address.

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2008 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Just because someone has a great record of success doesn't mean that they are never wrong. Wayne Lukas is arguably the most successful trainer in the history of the TC series and it's preps. Does it mean that his decision to press on with Going Wild was a good one? Does his record mean that nobody should have the right to question the move? I don't believe his record makes him beyond reproach. Same goes for Zito. Even so, I didn't say Zito was at fault for the places he ran the horse. I don't know who makes the call on where the horse runs. For all I know, the owner could be the one making the decisions against Zito's better judgment. If the only people that should be qualified to question anything on this forum are those that have a better track record in the game than Zito, I suspect that it would get pretty quiet around here pretty fast.

Who in the world cares if Commentator was 4/5 in the race? Does that mean that Zito should always run his horses where the public thinks he has the best shot? Using the odds a horse goes off at to suggest that they deserve those odds is weak. Arazi was the favorite in the 1992 BC Mile. I believe Favorite Trick held that same role in the 1998 running of the same race. Did either of them deserve to be? Absolutely not. So what do odds mean? I told anyone that would listen, and it's on here in print, that he had NO SHOT to win. I've said many times that he'll never win a top level sprint race. Wouldn't matter if he was 1/10. What if they had maybe tried the grass before last year's BC? What if he liked it? Then they could have considered the Mile instead of the Sprint.

Finally, I'm not sure what Indian Blessing has to do with any of this other than your constant need to try and belittle people's opinions. But at least you should be right about it when you do bring her up. I don't believe that I said she SHOULD run in the Derby. I don't believe I said she should be even POINTING to the Derby. If she were mine, that is not the direction I would be going with her. I said that I thought that at this point, I think she is one of the top five 3yos and Derby prospects out there. I don't think though that she's got a shot against War Pass or El Gato Malo so I wouldn't be looking to take them on unless I saw something in her next couple of races that told me that I have to go there.


I don't have the energy.......I think you are pretty much completely wrong about everything in this post.....just as I think your outlandish position on Indian Blessing highlights how much I disagree with your positions. No, I don't think everything you say is wrong, but some of it is so wrong that I have to reevaluate my positions when I agree with you.

King Glorious 01-17-2008 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I hope you still aren't willing to argue steadfastly that she doesn't have stamina issues to address.

I haven't seen any yet. I won't use how she ran this past weekend as any evidence of anything other than the fact that Baffert had her ready to win a 7f race in fast time in her 3yo debut. There was no need for her to be ready to rate and show enough stamina to convince the masses that she could go 9f or more in that race. I believe that a horse should be trained for what they are going to be asked to do. This is the same thing I went through with Smarty in 2004. People said he wouldn't have the stamina to go past a mile. They used his run in the Southwest Stakes (a tiring win where the closers were coming at him) as proof. They were wrong. Maybe they will end up right about Indian Blessing. This past weekend's race means nothing towards that end though, IMO. If one was seeing her for the first time this past weekend, they would assume that she couldn't last a step beyond 7f but we know that's not true because she's already won at 8.5f around two turns in grade one company.

Cajungator26 01-17-2008 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
This is the same thing I went through with Smarty in 2004. People said he wouldn't have the stamina to go past a mile. They used his run in the Southwest Stakes (a tiring win where the closers were coming at him) as proof. They were wrong.

OH NO. Comparing Indian Blessing to Smarty Jones again. :p

The Indomitable DrugS 01-17-2008 10:02 PM

I bet against Smarty Jones in the EhorseX exchange market the day of the Southwest because there was no way he wasn't getting cooked in that race - He got cooked - and still gave only marginal late ground to Two Down Automatic.

Since her remarkable debut at 5.5 furlongs, Indian Blessing has shown vulnerability through the stretch run in each start. To compare her at this point - with Smarty Jones after the Southwest Stakes - is ridiculious.

The Bid 01-17-2008 10:03 PM

I was amazed how badly he was winging out in his right front. Bdw you are familiar with the horse is that normal for him? I dont recall it ever being so pronounced watching him run. Still a strong effort

Cajungator26 01-17-2008 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I bet against Smarty Jones in the EhorseX exchange market the day of the Southwest because there was no way he wasn't getting cooked in that race - He got cooked - and still gave only marginal late ground to Two Down Automatic.

Since her remarkable debut at 5.5 furlongs, Indian Blessing has shown vulnerability through the stretch run in each start. To compare her at this point - with Smarty Jones after the Southwest Stakes - is ridiculious.

To be honest, I couldn't stand Smarty Jones until after the Belmont was over. I remember seeing footage of him after the race was done and he was literally shaking from exhaustion. Any horse that puts in that much effort to attempt to win a race is a nice horse IMO.

King Glorious 01-17-2008 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I bet against Smarty Jones in the EhorseX exchange market the day of the Southwest because there was no way he wasn't getting cooked in that race - He got cooked - and still gave only marginal late ground to Two Down Automatic.

Since her remarkable debut, Indian Blessing has shown vulnerability through the stretch run in each start. To compare her at this point - with Smarty Jones after the Southwest Stakes - is ridiculious.

For goodness sakes, I'M NOT COMPARING HER WITH SMARTY JONES!!!! Gee. I'm comparing situations of having a horse prepared to run one race and then people saying that it shows or proves what will happen in the next one. Do people not understand the meaning of a PREP anymore?

The Indomitable DrugS 01-17-2008 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
To be honest, I couldn't stand Smarty Jones until after the Belmont was over. I remember seeing footage of him after the race was done and he was literally shaking from exhaustion. Any horse that puts in that much effort to attempt to win a race is a nice horse IMO.

Rock Hard Ten - who won the Grade 1 Malibu at 7f over Lava Man at the end of that season - he got a very stupid ride and made a very pre-mature inside move in that race. He was ridden in the Belmont like it was a 7 furlong race, and the vast majority of the people seemed to want to blame Bailey for him harmless early actions on Eddington...basically forcing them from walking the dog up front and relaxing.

RHT's early move did a hell of a lot more to soften SJ - than Bailey shaking up his plodder a little early on, to force the pacesetters from crawling.

The Indomitable DrugS 01-17-2008 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
For goodness sakes, I'M NOT COMPARING HER WITH SMARTY JONES!!!!

No, almost just as bad, you used the reaction some people had from his Southwest win as an example for justifying that it is pre-mature to say that Indian Blessing has stamina issues to address.

hoovesupsideyourhead 01-17-2008 10:16 PM

i loath bailey.. but i like when a horse goes after the front runner whos slowing it down. to many outcomes have been bad because no one had the stones to go...

Cajungator26 01-17-2008 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Rock Hard Ten - who won the Grade 1 Malibu at 7f over Lava Man at the end of that season - he got a very stupid ride and made a very pre-mature inside move in that race. He was ridden in the Belmont like it was a 7 furlong race, and the vast majority of the people seemed to want to blame Bailey for him harmless early actions on Eddington...basically forcing them from walking the dog up front and relaxing.

RHT's early move did a hell of a lot more to soften SJ - than Bailey shaking up his plodder a little early on, to force the pacesetters from crawling.

Agree with your analysis... sucks that it happened that way. Hell, it more than sucks. Smarty was probably the closest thing to a Triple Crown winner that I'll see in my lifetime and I didn't even care for him until after it was said and done, lol.

The Indomitable DrugS 01-17-2008 10:25 PM

Real Quiet was 1/9 to win the triple crown at the 1/4 pole.

Cannon Shell 01-17-2008 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
be careful what u ask 4...stick to jumpers cg, u may know sumthin bout that, tbs...no

stalker

philcski 01-17-2008 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Real Quiet was 1/9 to win the triple crown at the 1/4 pole.

So was Smarty Jones, for that matter. He was 4 up at the 1/4 pole.

I love Commentator, so much so I called in sick to see his second career race. Horse is a monster when right, maybe the most talented NYB of all time (yeah, I said it. Refute me.)

The Indomitable DrugS 01-17-2008 10:53 PM

You knew Smarty Jones was going to pay a big price - Real Quiet looked like an impossibility to lose.

miraja2 01-17-2008 10:53 PM

Could we stop arguing about stupid Indian Blessing?
We all know she would need a bus ticket to get 10f, but that really has no bearing on Commentator. This is a talented horse that has shown some serious talent from 6f to 9f, and demonstrated again that he has the ability to actually run fast.
There aren't very many horses that can do that right now.

philcski 01-17-2008 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
You knew Smarty Jones was going to pay a big price - Real Quiet looked like an impossibility to lose.

I was at the finish line. He looked an impossibility to lose with 50 feet to go!

SniperSB23 01-17-2008 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
So was Smarty Jones, for that matter. He was 4 up at the 1/4 pole.

I love Commentator, so much so I called in sick to see his second career race. Horse is a monster when right, maybe the most talented NYB of all time (yeah, I said it. Refute me.)

He's right when things go his way. He's 10 for 10 now when on an early lead and able to set fractions of 44+ in a sprint and 46+ in a route. He is 0 for 6 without even a second place finish when those haven't been the circumstances. Basically they need to get a restraining order against Attila's Storm and Fabulous Strike if they want to go in anymore sprint races and have a chance.

The Indomitable DrugS 01-17-2008 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Basically they need to get a restraining order against Attila's Storm and Fabulous Strike if they want to go in anymore sprint races and have a chance.

There are obviously more than just those two sprinters who are capable of throwing fractions faster than that - but you know that.

The more serious question becomes, If the Chargers put Rachelle Washington on the field could she make Randy Moss disappear?


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