Compare these 2 videos for Cherokee Tear

OSA 11/4/2007 race 7 ( very difficult day to get up from back...he was best though)


SA 12/31/2007 race 8 (easy win when given fair track to work with)

Please note on the backstretch there is a 18 length deficit to make up on nov 4th,and just 8 lengths on the race on 12-31......It is not all due to a faster pace(maybe a couple lengths are due to that.)

You're consistently a lush.Did you ever get so drunk that you gave your cat something other than water to drink?

No,the best horse is not always a closer.The best horse will usually win on a fair track(regardless of running style.) or, as Playa says "REGUARDLESS"

Bravo Scuds you couldn't be more correct on this one......the read is obvious once you understand what's in front of you....or in this case "around" you...

One of the many reasons I missed this bias today was that a speed bias is most promient during short sprints but most effective if rated correctly in routes. Sprints which were only two today of the nine carded races so I missed the insanity of a 20.3 second quarter in the second race....

Nice hitting today Hooves..:D

THAT WAS A 1ST TIME STARTER IN A MAIDEN CLAIMER.I think it was maybe a Mullins horse.I guess Mullins told the jock to just go hard,get incredible separation.Obviously wasn't worried about getting caught,but like I said,people start doing weird stuff on speed biased tracks,and this was one of those weird things .They had their lil experiment to see just how fast they could go without getting caught.If he had a race under his belt,then he might not have stopped.The horse probably wins easily if they just clear on a reasonable pace,but I guess Mullins thought it was highly speed favoring.That's not just the jock letting a horse run off.That was the directions from the trainer.See,it can become a sideshow.They had a speed favoring track,and got it back beautifully 2 days later. For 6 race days they had a very fair track where horses could win with whatever style they had.Weird tracks since the rain.Last Thursday was the weirdest.It favored outside closers.Today's track is kind of typical of what happens when we get a lil warm and dry out here.True Raters might as well stay in the barn.Should be better Thursday.

It wasn't a fair track.I'm glad you cashed. That's your kind of fake track.You didn't pick 8 out of 9 winners.I don't see a single.You pick 3 horses a race,and got lucky in the last because the best horse was up against a huge bias....Chris PAASCH,HESS,AND JASON ORMAN....ALL 3=**** ........So,they had their day,and the track will be back under control soon,and good trainers will dominate these 3 again.They had their freak show.

the play was to box ect and pick 3s and rolling d.d.. muli plays are a safer bet and lead to better exotic payouts .. you keep singling and ill keep cashing.......... hey your play went all /7 ..i think the 1 may have been a good choice..but its gogos fault he didint get em moving not the tracks.....you need to watch the track abit more early in the card.. and the day before .and they have been adding sand giving it more grip in my opinion so speed is where it will be for a wile......

thank you.........

also how many speed types went out and faded .........

Picking winners is overrated......making money, then, I guess is underrated. Picking winners is about ego, it's all about needing to be right, but playing the horses is about making money and if your style of play is to spread, and you actually do make money doing this, then you are a better horseplayer, in all likelihood, than the person who thinks he makes money by picking a winner. I'm not saying that one style is absolutely better, but the successful players I know are better at putting together plays than picking specific winners.

As for the bias frustration, I hear you, and sometimes ( not as often as people think ) this is a big problem when playing the Aqueduct inner dirt ( which I play every day ). However, there is an enormous light at the end of the tunnel if you have a bias, especially a prolonged one, in that the track will become even at a certain point and you will left with a plethora of trips to use to play horses and play against, usually overbet, horses. That should more than financially make up for any supposed tough beats due to bias....if your opinion is solid and your race watching skills are even borderline competent.

just for kicks lets look at the winners pps/ vs the glorius 1 horse in the last

winner had ..higher beyer/better work, imo cut back.. both ran in same conditions. lewis /trainer of the 1 is a 6perc trainer

they payed 90k for the 2 ..then jocks 1 cnack to gogo..same thing

2 dellgatto to talamo plus though i like dellgato..

now the kicker.....the 2 beat the 1 last time 2 races back....


its just capping.......

There's still more than one way to be successful.

And, even if picking winners is overrated, you still need to be right at some point, whether it's making a horse an A,B,C or X in multis or betting against a short priced horse in a single race.

A couple of the better players I know eschew the multi-race wagers and focus on single race situations to bet strongly against a short-priced, negative-opinion horse mostly through the tri and super pools. Just like the p-4 or p-6 players, they have to be right about their opinion as well as their ticket structure. But they prefer betting this strategy vs being shoe-horned into needing to be right (at least to some extent) about a leg of a p-4 that is, to them, largely undecipherable.

You can still win using different strategies.

Also, way to go at SA yesterday, Hooves.....

Obviously I agree. Being right somewhere will always be important, and as you said better than I did, that being right will often be in who you are betting against and how you do it.

For a site that is minimal on B.S., there are several really good cappers here.

If anyone is interested, I watched the replay for the Fairgrounds 6th, and there didn't appear to be any advantage in the first 15 seconds. Cheap speed actually went out first. Couldn't be past posting/late posting. I think the best guess is that the connections Amoss/Maggi Moss felt they had a move-up and put between $3-5k to win (missed the place/show action) as they were loading the gate. They didn't want to influence the public by making their horse the favorite the whole time. That info doesn't help anyone, but the next time you think you have an Amoss move-up, it is something to look for in the last few odds bumps.

why do you think it was the connections betting......

I think they knew that the horse was right. May have been a case of a sound, willing horse going from Hay/Oats/Water in a barn that doesn't win a lot -to top nutrition available in a high% barn.

Maybe the money came in very weird, or there is a lucky hunch player or a great pro, but of the informed players the most likely scenarios lead to Amoss.

I already used up some of them ...Like Cherokee Tear,but as you can see,they run 2nd and 3rd against the bias,so ain't like they're are gunna be prices next time.It helps though in having confidence to single horses.

I was just giving you a hard time.You needed a good day.So good job.If it stays speed favoring,then I will pass.It comes down to jockey whims when it's speed favoring.I really don't care why that Bible Loving Court didn't provide any pressure yesterday in the 7th.That's what I mean though.I don't want to guess about his personal f'n choices.That's what speed biases make you do.Is so n' so gunna let his horse run or not?..f dat.

I think you are looking at it in somewhat the wrong way. It's not a case of making a " horses to watch " list as much as it is making careful notes of bias days, and then upgrading and downgrading horses when they return from those days based on their trips. It takes either detailed notes or a lot of replay watching when the horses come back but sometimes you will be surprised at all the hidden gems you will find.

A prolonged bias is a trip handicappers dream. You just have to be patient....the payoffs will come.

As far as wagering style goes,I think if ya wanna go thick,then ya better be able to go thin.Even if ya don't pick a winner(single,) then I think ya should be able to go 2 deep versus 3 deep,because you need to go 5 deep to get through tough races.2x5x3x3 (to me) is better than 3x3x3x3.........Some of this has to do with each individual's past history etc. I grew up with a guy who used to go to the track for one race,and bet $500 to win and place on one horse,and he stole 10k using his pop's atm card.He got kicked out of the house.He then spent a lot of time with Corey Nakatani's sister.Next thing I know he's arrested for murder,and he is probably still in prison.So,I am never gunna be a fan of large betting.I do think there is a vast difference between betting pick 3 tickets versus pick 4 tickets.I think handicapping will work pretty well for 3 races,but when you start talking 4 races,you get into the "**** happens" territory.

I got some dates.Like I said earlier, November 4th is a key date at OAKTREE. It really was difficult to get up if ya did't lay close up into the turn etc. Cherokee was best,and got 3rd.I think Street Boss was best, but was up against a strong bias.He may of injured alil something,but is working good again.Be tough Thursday( if the track doesn't have the same problem.) Solis is a f'n fossil though.

$erious $tuff
 

:D serious question?


the 2 horse win bet was not as efficient as possible. Had it been perfect it would have been $115/$85 ratio (instead of $105/$95) out of the $200. At 2.1-1 and allowing for me to naturally be off a few dollars here or there, the pool change cost me about $20 additional profit.

Good question.

For that race it came down to deciding how likely I felt I would win with those two horses.
I was confident and felt that I had about 65% chance of winning covered.

The final price that I got from final odds would break even if I win 56% of the time.
Meaning as long as my opinion of confidence is accurate and higher than the 56% price, I am getting a good opportunity.

If I can buy a gallon of gas and a good cup of coffee for under $3.50 I take it.

Street Boss romps......11/4=key date

That horse is decent.Don't really understand how this guy can make a living as a trainer.Honestly,if Iwas to put % on it.He messes up 75% of horses he claims.20% of the claims stay as good as they were when he claimed them,and he improves 5% of the horses he claims.This horse is part of the 75% he has f'd up.Horse should miraculously wake up if she goes to another barn.

You could get a 5 year old to write this better for you.

That's a lie.You're here for the organs of generation.