Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Breeders' Cup Archive (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=22)
-   -   BC: Turf; FMT; Mile (PP's/Odds) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17418)

NoChanceToDance 10-21-2007 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Can one of you Europeans please rank the big jockeys over there for us?

Thanks. . .

Everyone will have their own opinions, so you will get different lists, but my top ten would go something like this.

1. Ryan Moore
2. Mick Kinane
3. Kieren Fallon
4. Kerrin McEvoy
5. Ted Durcan
6. Johnny Murtagh
7. Declan McDonagh
8. Stephane Pasquier
9. Kevin Manning
10. Pat Smullen

hockey2315 10-21-2007 03:58 PM

Dettori's not even in the top 10? What about Soumillon?

NoChanceToDance 10-21-2007 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Dettori's not even in the top 10? What about Soumillon?

Soumillon is rather like dettori, he's a jockey you can't depend on, he gets it wrong so many times. Dettori, soumillon and spencer are all quite similar in my opinion.

brockguy 10-21-2007 04:28 PM

you would enjoy me and my friends almost weekly slagging off of Manning.. He is terrible but has got the ultimate job security..

For me, Id have McEvoy, Fallon, Kinane, Murtagh as the top echelon of Euro (well one is Aussie) jocks

NoChanceToDance 10-21-2007 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy
you would enjoy me and my friends almost weekly slagging off of Manning.. He is terrible but has got the ultimate job security..

For me, Id have McEvoy, Fallon, Kinane, Murtagh as the top echelon of Euro (well one is Aussie) jocks

Manning isn't an all time fav of mine but he's still get on the top ten list of the top jocks riding in europe. He is so strong in the saddle and nine times out of ten you can be sure you will get a run for your money with his mounts.

He just edges Pat Smullen for me, who in my opinion is a great tactical jockey, but isn't as strong in a finish as some of the others.

Kerrin just has a superb racing brain. You will rarely see him in the wrong position when a race is developing. When you can do that time after time you don't need to be exceptionally strong. In America he'd turn out to be one of the all time greats. America deserves a jock like McEvoy, he's make someone like Gomez look ordinary.

Kinane is just tremendous..... everything.

Murtagh has improved out of all recognition this year, i think. A few years ago he wasn't a fav of mine at all, but i think that can be put down to him going through his drink problem and not really getting along with David Loder while he had a spell in England. This year he has been unstoppable.

Kieren is just Kieren. race fixing or not, you'll never see a more powerful jockey. He could lift horses over the line first. A seriously good horseman.

Ryan looks like he could be the next Kinane, a very quiet lad, just gets on with his job. Racing is his life, he doesn't drink, he doesn't go to clubs and get laid by as many birds as possible. He is 100% focused on his job. Nothing is ever good enough for him. Even after winning the eclipse on Notnowcato he thought he could have done better. Someone with that determination at such a young age is on his way to stardom.

Kasept 10-22-2007 03:26 AM

Lahudood (GB) FM Turf Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.00:14
Nashoba's Key FM Turf/Distaff Santa Anita 5 furlongs 1.00:80
Argentina (IRE) FM Turf Belmont Park 6 furlongs 1.17:04
Honey Ryder FM Turf/Turf Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.03:41
Precious Kitten Mile/FM Turf Keeneland 4 furlongs 48:60
Wait a While FM Turf Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.04:11


Cosmonaut Mile Keeneland 5 furlongs 58:00
After Market Mile Hollywood Park 5 furlongs 1.00:00
Host (CHI) Mile Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.03:41
Icy Atlantic Turf/Mile Belmont Park 4 furlongs 50:71
Purim Mile Keeneland 5 furlongs 59:40
Rabatash Mile Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.01:82
Remarkable News Mile Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.02:71


English Channel Turf Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.03:55
Grand Couturier (GB) Turf Aqueduct 5 furlongs 1.04:03
Shamdinan (FR) Turf Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.03:60
Transduction Gold Turf Keeneland 5 furlongs 1.01:60

Scav 10-23-2007 12:38 AM

I just got done handicapping the BC Turf and while Dylan Thomas looks extremely solid, I think a horse that could run huge is Shamdinan. In TG terms, he just circled back to his top, which in lightly raced horses often means a move forward. Now his current top is right in the thick of things for 2nd/3rd money but if he explodes, which could happen, he could be a monster payoff. I think the reward is there if he is over 20/1, which is possible since his last two races aren't too impressive, even though his last race at Belmont recieved a "!" notation meaning it is a buried figure and it is a better race then it looks to the public. He is also getting 5lbs. I think all of this adds up to including him in alot of tickets.

Anyone know why Angel Penna took over training on this horse?

hockey2315 10-23-2007 01:03 AM

Grand Courturier is my longshot in that race. . . Maybe I'll play something with Dylan on top and throw Shamdinan and GC underneath. . . I'm not sure about Shammy though. . .

Scurlogue Champ 10-23-2007 01:04 AM

Murtagh makes me want to kill people with some of his rides.

NoChanceToDance 10-23-2007 06:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ
Murtagh makes me want to kill people with some of his rides.

That's how i used to feel about him two or three years ago. I saw him give so many bad rides within those two years i lost faith in him as a kockey. This year, however, he has been riding out of his skin. His ride in the E P Taylor the other day was fantastic. Most would have given up and just ridden out for second, but the way he picked Mrs Lindsay up again was brilliant. He is in the form of his life, and so is Dylan Thomas...... which is a great combination.

Bobby Fischer 10-23-2007 08:07 AM

I had Murtagh ranked as maybe the best Euro jockey this year- - until his ride in the Manowar. To his credit(or a greater sin) I couldn't tell 100% that it wasn't a pace ambush to try to take out Sunriver...
Sure glad I didn't bet his horse that day. I know a lot of people wouldn't have put a penny on him, had they known he was going to use it up on the pace like a cheap uncoupled entry. His other recent races here including the Arlington Million day, have been high level.


Ryan Moore caught my eye with his Eclipse victory. I dont care if the trainer came up with the tactics, the execution and timing is what impressed me.

TheSpyder 10-23-2007 10:23 AM

Workouts
 
Whose working out at Monmouth? I can't find any information on this and it would seem to me an important fact. Anyone know?

Thanks,
Spyder

Bobby Fischer 10-23-2007 11:37 AM

:)
[/rant]

hockey2315 10-23-2007 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
[rant=morningline]

too much handicapping from the ML maker and not enough attention to the betting public:mad: .

He should KNOW that the public wants to bet Nobiz hand-over-fist in the Mile, yet he starts Nobiz at 8-1 while placing Jeremy at 5-1 ??

there odds should be reversed for the morning line!


It isn't his job to be an "expert" handicapper - his job is to set a morning line.

Sure it will even out, but the game is hard enough without the Linesmaker trying to go beyond the betting-public's opinion and into his own handicapping..

[/rant]

Ya so far I don't like some of the linesmaker's odds at all. . .

ezrabrooks 10-25-2007 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
Me, Gallant, mmsc and many european racing followers will all agree that Dettori is hugely overrated. He isn't the best when it comes to tactics and compared with a lot of jockeys he is very weak in a finish.

He only cares about winning. Second and third are not good enough to him as he has shown many times in the past. If he has no chance of winning, but still has a chance of hitting the board he will more than likely give up.

People think he's a good jockey because of the media. He gets a lot of media attention, but that doesn't mean he is good.

He has the choice of all the Godolphin horses to ride, and if they have two runners in the same race he will usually choose the 'wrong one', even though he should know the Godolphin horses inside out.

He just isn't very good considering he gets to ride some of the best horses in the world and often gets it all wrong.

NoChance, Enjoy your posts. One queston, if Dettori doesn't like to lose...what is he doing on Kelly's Landing in the Sprint? This horse should be a toss, but I just keep coming back to him..

Ez

NoChanceToDance 10-25-2007 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ezrabrooks
NoChance, Enjoy your posts. One queston, if Dettori doesn't like to lose...what is he doing on Kelly's Landing in the Sprint? This horse should be a toss, but I just keep coming back to him..

Ez

He had a good victory on him in Dubai, and even i have to say he gave KL a good ride that night in March.

I think he has a very good shot. I think the key to him is being fresh, and he will be fresh for this. My worry is the jockey though, he is very frustrating from a punters point of view. You can never be sure what sort of ride you will get for your money.

otisotisotis 10-27-2007 12:36 AM

my precious kitten
where for art thou wait a while?
the rest go under

my miss storm cat 10-27-2007 04:05 PM

"What an upset! Dylan Thomas goes down to the American English Channel!"

Oh God give me a break. Dylan has had a long year.....

Disgusted.

Scav 10-27-2007 04:05 PM

Kev might get fired for yelling so loud, AT WORK, and then calling me.

NoChanceToDance 10-27-2007 04:08 PM

They shouldn't have run him. I'm sorry, but they shouldn't.

Greed gets the better of a big organisation again!

Dunbar 10-27-2007 04:08 PM

Congrats, Kev. It's fun thinking how thrilled you must be!

--Dunbar

my miss storm cat 10-27-2007 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
They shouldn't have run him. I'm sorry, but they shouldn't.

Greed gets the better of a big organisation again!

We disagree a lot but yeah, there were more reasons not to run him than to go ahead with it.....

NoChanceToDance 10-27-2007 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat
We disagree a lot but yeah, there were more reasons not to run him than to go ahead with it.....

Ground was wrong, long season, he had quite a bit to lose. I'm very disappointed with Coolmore.

SentToStud 10-27-2007 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Is it so bad to lose? I applaud them for running. I wish more horses would run. Why are we as fans of this sport so against horses running? It's not like he had physical issues. It's hard to knock the career he has had. So what he was off the board.

I agree. In the days before the Breeders Cup turned racing into ATMs for guys named Dinny, Stamps and Barry, horses often competed when the did not have the best of it. Weight, surface, weather were all part of the sport. I give them credit for running.

my miss storm cat 10-27-2007 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Is it so bad to lose? I applaud them for running. I wish more horses would run. Why are we as fans of this sport so against horses running? It's not like he had physical issues. It's hard to knock the career he has had. So what he was off the board.

No, it's not so bad to lose.

Hey, my favorite horse was Ace who hadn't won since 2004.

Always rooted for him, always played him, and he would humor me and amuse me by having sleepy time halfway through the race(s). Never pissed me off..... it's just how he was. I never minded losing on him.

This though..... he's had a grueling year so hearing what i think are moronic comments about being beaten? Just irritates me. I can't help it.

I played Red Rocks but rooted for Dylan.

Congrats to all who had the winner.

That joke about he's done enough? He really has.....


— — 07Oct07 Lon 12GS G1,772K 9-5 1/12 hd, Youmzain[11/2] 9-5 K Fallon — 128 127
— — 08Sep07 Leo 10GF G1,404K 9-7 1/6 1½L, Duke Of Marmalade[8/15F] 9-0 K Fallon 127 116 126
FULL FIN 21Aug07 Yor 10Gd Cl1 G1,298K 9-5 2/7 1L, Authorized[2/1] 8-11 J Murtagh — 105 128
— — 28Jul07 Asc 12GS Cl1 G1,425K 9-7 1/7 4L, Youmzain[5/4F] 9-7 J Murtagh — 130 131
— — 20Jun07 Asc 10Gd Cl1 G1,211K 9-0 2/6 1¼L, Manduro[2/1] 9-0 C Soumillon — 85 129
— — 27May07 Cur 11GF G1,125K 9-0 2/9 hd, Notnowcato[1/2F] 9-0 J A Heffernan 126 39 127
— — 29Apr07 Lon 11Gd G1,115K 9-2 1/8 2L, Irish Wells[4/9F] 9-2 C Soumillon — 117 125
— — 15Apr07 Cur 10GF L,21K 9-8 1/7 3L, Fracas[8/15F] 9-1 J A Heffernan 126 4 118

I think he's tired now. That sounds stupid, but I do.

my miss storm cat 10-27-2007 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
No disgrace in losing.

Agree.

NoChanceToDance 10-27-2007 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Is it so bad to lose? I applaud them for running. I wish more horses would run. Why are we as fans of this sport so against horses running? It's not like he had physical issues. It's hard to knock the career he has had. So what he was off the board.

For an American it probably doesn't seem to bad, but from a european prospective when you knew he was going to struggle it was a dreadful decision to run the horse after having a long season on ground he hates.

We have seen that he's a proper horse, he didn't need to prove anything to us.

I know you thought i was mad saying he wouldn't run, but that was the opinion of many fans over here and we are all gutted.

As soon as the rain came most people said he wouldn't have a chance of winning.

Losing this race will be in the fore of everyone's mind. It has eclipsed his Arc win for me.

my miss storm cat 10-27-2007 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
It has eclipsed his Arc win for me.

Don't let it.....

That was stunning. Nothing should ruin a memory of something so stunning.

Coach Pants 10-27-2007 04:30 PM

Maybe it's time for the Euros to get over themselves? Or at the very least don't post today?

my miss storm cat 10-27-2007 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Maybe it's time for the Euros to get over themselves? Or at the very least don't post today?

:D

Am I an honorary Euro?

NoChanceToDance 10-27-2007 04:34 PM

I'm just annoyed. There was no chance of him going to America if he won the Arc (according to Tabor), that was grand, i was happy he was going to sign off with a win. Then all of a sudden he's going to America. Mood? unsure, despite the firm ground that was back then. Definitley going to run in the BC Turf...... mood? Surprised.

Rain f'ing it down over 24 hours. He can't run surely? surely they won't risk him? if they do he has no chance.

He runs.......... (i'm cursing)

I'm annoyed because there was no reason to run. Our best turf horse and he gets stuffed because of a stupid decision.

As a fan, i like watching the horses run, too, but there is a line and in my opinion Coolmore went way over that line.

I can just imagine Aidan saying "in hindsight we shouldn't have run"

Two runs in America, and two huge defeats, he won't get much attention for the american breeding market.

Coach Pants 10-27-2007 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat
:D

Am I an honorary Euro?

Like Gwyneth Paltrow?

Coach Pants 10-27-2007 04:37 PM

I think Coolmore and Conan O'Brien should be applauded for running him. They were true sportsmen today.

ArlJim78 10-27-2007 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
For an American it probably doesn't seem to bad, but from a european prospective when you knew he was going to struggle it was a dreadful decision to run the horse after having a long season on ground he hates.

We have seen that he's a proper horse, he didn't need to prove anything to us.

I know you thought i was mad saying he wouldn't run, but that was the opinion of many fans over here and we are all gutted.

As soon as the rain came most people said he wouldn't have a chance of winning.

Losing this race will be in the fore of everyone's mind. It has eclipsed his Arc win for me.

how would it have been better if he was withdrawn or didn't even come over?
aren't we just talking about pride here? sure he was up against it, but he gave it a shot. i don't see how it diminishes him. there is no precedent for being able to pull off that double.

NoChanceToDance 10-27-2007 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Maybe it's time for the Euros to get over themselves? Or at the very least don't post today?

Maybe i should get over myself. Maybe i'm very upset, like anyone would be when their apparent main chance gets stuffed in a race he had the ability to win in hand.

Yes, i'm probably going OTT, but this has been a very depressing BC for us. Just like it would be for you if a euro wins the classic.

NoChanceToDance 10-27-2007 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
how would it have been better if he was withdrawn or didn't even come over?
aren't we just talking about pride here? sure he was up against it, but he gave it a shot. i don't see how it diminishes him. there is no precedent for being able to pull off that double.

He would have at least gone out on a winning note with a great Arc win. He has had a very long season, was there any need to run him? I can't think of a single reason to run him.

You know when you are pretty sure a horse doesn't have a chance you just hope he/she doesn't run (rather like many Americans were thinking with After Market today), it is very disappointing to see him run and get humiliated.

He shouldn't have been sent over there after such a hard season.

But hey, they did..... fair play to them, but i think it was the wrong decision.

Cannon Shell 10-27-2007 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
I'm just annoyed. There was no chance of him going to America if he won the Arc (according to Tabor), that was grand, i was happy he was going to sign off with a win. Then all of a sudden he's going to America. Mood? unsure, despite the firm ground that was back then. Definitley going to run in the BC Turf...... mood? Surprised.

Rain f'ing it down over 24 hours. He can't run surely? surely they won't risk him? if they do he has no chance.

He runs.......... (i'm cursing)

I'm annoyed because there was no reason to run. Our best turf horse and he gets stuffed because of a stupid decision.

As a fan, i like watching the horses run, too, but there is a line and in my opinion Coolmore went way over that line.

I can just imagine Aidan saying "in hindsight we shouldn't have run"

Two runs in America, and two huge defeats, he won't get much attention for the american breeding market.

He wasn't getting much attention if he won by 10

Coach Pants 10-27-2007 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
Maybe i should get over myself. Maybe i'm very upset, like anyone would be when their apparent main chance gets stuffed in a race he had the ability to win in hand.

Yes, i'm probably going OTT, but this has been a very depressing BC for us. Just like it would be for you if a euro wins the classic.

Yeah I would be so depressed if we got beat by the euros. :rolleyes:


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:36 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.