So you are saying that winning a G1 on turf won't help his value as a stallion BECAUSE he doesn't come from a fashionable sire line? I think you have that completely backwards. If a horse comes from a fashionable stallion line already, doesn't it stand to reason that they would need to prove LESS on the track to be considered a valuable future stallion? Therefore a horse like Nobiz would actually increase more in value by being a G1 winner on dirt and turf than a horse by someone like Storm Cat or AP Indy would for accomplishing that same thing, becasuse their presumed value is already higher (I'm still trying to figure out why you included Street Sense in your original list of fashionable sires).

As a completely different point, I think most people considering the value of a sire are also smart enough to look at the dam-side of the pedigree as well. If people want Storm Cat (I know I wouldn't, but a lot of people seem to disagree) they can find it in Nobiz, since he is out of a Storm Cat mare.

With an under-performing Albert the Great as his sire (and Go For Gin, now only a regional sire in MD, as his grand-sire), no matter how much NoBiz accomplished on the track, I could never see his initial stud fee as being higher than $15,000.

In comparison, Street Sense is a far more accomplished horse, by a sire who's likely to be standing next year for somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000. That's why he is going to be a hot commodity next year, as will Hard Spun (by Danzig) and Any Given Saturday (by $225K sire, Distorted Humor). Whether they pan out, that's an entirely different question. Just ask the folks who bred to Point Given and Empire Maker at $100K their first seasons at stud.

Was anybody suggesting that Nobiz would or should stand for a higher fee than Street Sense? I don't think so. If anybody did they are crazy. KY_Sasquash listed Street Sense in a list with established sires like AP Indy, Dynaformer, and Storm Cat. That didn't make sense to me.

No, see parisixfarm's comment. explains it perfectly. obviously another G1 would help his stallion resume, but with his bloodlines he going to have to "move up his mares" before he gets top broodmares. an example would be Dynamformer, he started out at $7,500 and has climbed the ladder to where he is now.

A G1 winning son of AP Indy, Storm Cat, or Gone West has a higher ceiling for a stud fee than a son of Albert the Great. Nobiz would have to dance every dance and repeatedly win G1's for him to stand above $20k-breeders arent going to pay an unreasonable stud fee on him when they can go to lines from these lines for similar or less fees. Street Sense was a typo. I meant Street Cry.

meant street cry. and yes i'd consider street sense a hot line right now since (pun intended) he's producing progeny that are winning on turf,dirt, poly, long, short, filly, colt-he's quite versatile and doesnt seem to have many weaknesses.

Dynaformer entered stud 17 years ago. I think you'll need to come up with another example. $7,500 was alot of money back then. I don't think you can assume anything nowadays when it comes to stud fees. Especially if NoBiz turns out to be a sound horse that dominates the Turf division for the next year or two.

Im not saying that he'd be the favorite, but at 20-1 (probably longer on race day) I think he'd have a great shot to hit he board; dont know if he could win, but I'd sure like to see him try. The only bad race that he ran in the spring was in the Derby, which can be excused and he was beaten 4 lengths by Any Given Saturday in the Dwyer. His bloodlines suggest that he's finally maturing and maybe he was too immature in the spring to keep up with the other 3yos(certainly ran that way). Now the tight turns at Monmouth might be to his liking, but I think he'd only have to worry about Street Sense, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, who probably wont like the tight turns too, and Any Given Saturday, who's last race wasnt the most impressive so I dont think its that unrealistic of a spot for him.

That's it?

Haskin is clueless. Nobiz doesn't even have the most e turn of foot in his own barn. Nobiz is slow. All these writers that hyped Nobiz for some reason earlier in the year are covering their butt. Nobiz is not in the BC Mile because he is not that fast.

When you consider 4th place is $250,000 and 5th is still over $100,000 it doesn't sound so daunting.

How much faster than the 34 and 4 he came home in do you want him to run?

His owner is worth a zillion dollars. Running him in a tough race like that and hoping for scaps makes no sense whatsoever.

The horse has had a full campaign this year. He should run where he belongs.

I don't see anything wrong with an attempt in the Classic. In my opinion, Nobiz looks like a better horse now. He looks more relaxed during his races, which is very important for him. I'm not saying that this will put him in the same class as horses like Curlin, Street Sense, Lawyer Ron and maybe Any Given Saturday but I honestly can't see any of the other probable entrants to the race that I wouldn't say he could compete with. As mentioned, AGS didn't look good at all in his last race, SS doesn't appear to really have improved since the spring and there is no telling how much the JCGC might have taken out of Curlin and/or Lawyer Ron. So going in, he might be the fifth best horse and if his improvement over the second half of the year is not only coincidental with his switch to grass, it's not too hard for me to see a scenario where he could make the super or the tri. If the attempt goes bad, put him back on the grass for next year or wait till all of the big boys from this year are retired and try dirt again later. I don't see where there is a losing side to taking a shot.

I agree with you about the higher ceiling.
But my point is that if you take a horse like Empire Maker, and ask the question 'would winning a G1 on turf have enhanced his original stud fee,' what is the answer? I don't think it would have made much of a difference because he was a son of a noted sire in Unbridled that had already shown flashes of talent. Therefore his original stud fee was already going to be - as we saw - extremely high.
A horse with a "lesser pedigree" like Nobiz has more to gain by continued on-track performance, because - although his ceiling is unquestionably lower than a horse like Empire Maker - he can only reach that ceiling with sustained on-track performance. He can't simply run eight times, show some talent, and then command top dollar. The only way he will generate any interest at all as a stallion is by demonstrating top on-track performances. I think being a G1 winner on turf would help him on that front.

The Belmont turf is so hard that maidens are running 6f in 108 and change. His race was not that fast and he is still nothing more than a 95-100 beyer horse. The 3yr old turf horses in america are terrible as usual, but Nobiz can't compete with the top turf horses in the world or even america. Horses like Kitten's Joy, Showing Up, and even Kip Deville were much faster 3yr old turf horses. Nobiz is just well placed by a trainer that understands that horse can't compete with the top dirt horses or the top grass horses. He could move up next year, like an After Market did, but if you look at the career of Nobiz, he appears to be no faster today than he was at 2.

Recent examples are Hall of Fame horses like Holy Bull, Skip Away and Silver Charm. Neither of them was by fashionable sires, so their initial stud fees were relatively modest in comparison to their race track heroics. (I'm not commenting on their success at stud, although in the interest of full disclosure, I do currently have a mare in foal to Holy Bull.)

Right now, Nobiz would stand for about $7500. That is it. A son of Albert the Great just won't fetch much. A grade 3 winning son of AP Indy would fetch more than a grade 1 winning son of Albert the Great, especially if he is viewed as a turf sire.

I could see Nobiz in Florida or NY, not KY.

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him. So should any horse that's not considered one of those top five or six also be withdrawn from consideration also and just search for an easier spot, maybe the Cigar or the Clark? Yeah, let's leave the Classic with a five horse field because it's no use taking a shot if u aren't one of the top five.

Nobiz has 'nobiz' in KY, is that what you're saying? I kid. :D

See, that to me just says the opposite. If you don't care about the money then building a stallion resume isn't a big concern so why not take the shot in the BC Classic even at 30/1?

Really, I think it all should come down to two factors. First, do they think he turned the corner in his last race and is now a better horse than he was earlier in the year. And two, do they feel based on the Derby that he isn't going to excel at 10 furlongs on the dirt or do they feel there were other factors that day that accounted for the poor showing. My guess is that they don't think he had an excuse in the Derby and didn't ever want 10 furlongs on the dirt which is why the Classic isn't an option.

I think there can be a difference between what we would like to see as fans/horseplayers and what we think the connections should do with their horses.
As a fan (and somebody who plans on playing the BC races) I would like to see full fields for every race. I would love for Nobiz to be in a BC race - especially the classic - because it is more fun to see a race with a big field and because some people would probably be foolish enough to bet some money on him.
The fact that, as a fan, I would like to see him in the race does not mean that I have to think it would be a smart decision on the part of his connections to actually enter him in the race.

It is foolish because there are much better alternatives. If they run in a BC race he clearly should be in the Mile. The BC Turf is probably the second choice. However, Tagg, who is one of the great trainers in the game, has said he is pointing to the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. He isn't leaving this horse in the barn, and never has, but instead has picked one good spot for him after another. Yet, somehow people here apparently know better than he does where and when he should run the horse.

Who care's what you think he would stand for right now? Last time I checked he'll be racing next month. He's a 3 YO for Christmas sake. Not every horse has "has done enough" by the summer of their sophomore season. Everybody screams and cries about horses retiring early (Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, etc...) just let him be and enjoy him. He's run 3 times on turf and has won 2 grade 2's and a grade 3. Maybe he will turn into a nice sound grass horse that we can have around for a few years. You can worry about how much he'll fetch after he accomplishes something worth discussing.



What is wrong with the 102 beyer he earned under a hand ride on Saturday?

Exactly. :) With his name maybe they should stand him in CA or NY.

He is a nice horse but all the hype around a horse that is clearly a notch below the top horses is puzzling.

Don't get too caught up in the hand ride aspect of a race with extremely fast finishing fractions. The fast final fractions means it was extremely unlikely he would have gone any faster under urging.

Well in a couple of years we won't have this problem because there will probably be a 9f turf race for 3YOs that will be considered a BC race. Maybe there will even be a special BC race restricted to Albert the Great's offspring.
Once they decide that they need to expand the Breeders Cup to 70 different races contested over an entire week, all of these problems will be eliminated.

He is coming back next year in part because he has no choice. There is no way he could fill a book. As for his 102 beyer, it fits perfectly for what he is. A horse that is a notch below the top horses. Combine that with his average pedigree and he is worth little at stud. It is just hilarious how much hype this horse gets. He is the product of a trainer that knows how to place his horses. A solid horse on dirt and turf. Nothing more.

Does he really get a lot of hype? He typically doesn't on this board.

I felt the same way until the Jamaica. He showed me there that he may turn out to be a very good horse on the turf. We will have to wait and see.

I'm not saying where he SHOULD run his horse or when. I'm only saying that I don't think the Classic as a thought, is a stupid one. I'm not sure that I believe that the Mile is clearly his best race if he were to be in the BC. The horse has won six stakes in his career and all but one have been at 9f. I'd have more confidence in him competing in the Classic than dropping down to compete in the Mile. Not much more confident but a little more.

Of course, I know that Tagg is much better suited to charting a course for his horse than I am. I'm not stupid. If he feels the Hollywood Derby is the better spot for him, then by all means go there. But I do think that if he's not totally closing the door on the BC, the Classic is worth considering.

If speed figures mean absolutely anything, then considering him "one of the best five or six horses in the race" would seem to be a magnificient stretch for just about anyone.

On paper, Student Council is only about a length slower than Nobiz on the dirt.

If by "best five or six," you meant "slowest two or three" then yea, I totally agree.

If he went, you could at least hope for a field of eight...that way you couldn't lose on either account.

So am I to assume that horses don't mature in your world after 3? How about if he is still learning? Is that a possibility? Castellano had to yank him to the outside pretty hard, what happens when he figures it ALL out and gets there on his own? What has this horse done to make people dislike him so much?

After you get past Curlin, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun, tell me which other horses that are pointed to the race outclass Nobiz from a speed figure perspective?

True. He is not clueless. I should have said he was clueless on this issue. Nobody can take a guy seriously that said what he said about Nobiz. There are horses running today like Crossing the Line and his stablemate Showing Up (both with injuries now) that have much quicker turns of foot. I don't even think he has a quicker turn of foot than horses like Sunriver or After Market. He just ran on a turf course that is currently as hard as concrete.

I still have no idea why guys like Haskin love this horse so much. Must be the free dinners or something he is getting from the guys who stand Albert the Great. LOL. Although those guys do spend quite a bit advertising on the horse, which makes me wonder.

A bunch of horses, many who aren't going because they are too slow. Horses like Fairbanks, Master Command, Grasshopper, Political Force, etc. Nobiz is a 100 beyer type horse. There is nothing special about him on dirt. Maybe he will turn out to be a great turf horse, although doubtful, but he just is not a Breeders Cup Classic horse. I don't even think he could win a race like the Clark.

Tiago is faster on paper. Diamond Stripes is faster on paper.

Heck, if Zanjero were to go, he would even be up to giving Nobiz fits in the fight for 8th given his recent form.

Throw in the fact that at a mile and a quarter, Student Council is even arguably faster than Nobiz (considering that Student Council's mile and a quarter numbers of late are essentially within a length to a length and a half of Nobiz's top dirt races at any distance), it looks like you're left with maybe Awesome Gem being slower than Nobiz.

It's a moot point considering that Nobiz is not going, but if he were, at this time it would appear that nearly all of the probables for the race are faster than he is -- especially going a mile and quarter.

That's nine I can count, just off the top of my head.

the most absurd thing is that there is a thread discussing slobiz that has gone on for at least four pages now.

personally, i think the storm cat filly that won the turf stakes the other day at belmont is more appealing!

lest we forget great hunter .bwanna bull,imawildandcrazy guy... wondering boy..who i think would love monmouth