"f_ck you JoBoo....if you no help me...I do it myself"

I love that movie!!!

You are probably right about this. I might just be crazy to try to beat him here, but something about his resume just doesn't seem to justify the proabably insane odds he will be on Saturday. And just for the record, my decision to play against him, doesn't have anything to do with the bounce theory. I have never put much stock in that theory.
Other than the basic points I have already articulated in this thread, I think the fact that a horse who has never won a stakes race, and has actually never even run a good race outside of Saratoga will be an overwhelming odds-on favorite is a bit much. He certainly gave Street Sense a good battle in the Travers, but I just think that battling a hanger (even a really good hanger like Street Sense) tends to lead to an overrated performance.
Is his competition daunting? Not at all. It isn't really even average, but I think the race might unfold in such a way that he is asked to do something he simply hasn't done before. Is he good enough to do that? Probably, but I just think the odds will be a little out of whack.
By the way btw, it is good to have you back on the board.

What would he need to do that he hasn't done before?

As I said at the time, I believe Street Sense was actually a good play in the Travers, even at those low odds. I probably underestimated Grasshopper that day, and I may be doing it again in this one, but trying to beat him here makes a lot more sense to me than trying to beat Street Sense in the Travers. I felt I was almost sure that I knew how Street Sense would perform going into that race based on his previous performances at that track and at that distance. I have a lot more questions about how Grasshopper will perform on Saturday. How will he fare in a two-turn race with semi-fast early fractions? Will he be able to repeat his Saratoga performances on another track? The answers are probably yes, but at odds-on I think I'll take a shot.

All it would take is Grasshopper to go down 7 beyer points and Past the Point to go up 7 beyer points. It's not out of the question. Grasshopper did go from 89 to 105 in 2 races, so it's too early to say what Past the Point can do.

Saying that though, Grasshopper will probably win.

Betting the second choice while praying for an eight or nine length reversal of form, for no legitimate reason, may not be a great road to horseplaying success.

He's lightly raced. I wouldn't say the same about a horse that has started 10 times, but I'd give the possibility to a horse that has started 3 or 4 times.

He rated with no problem in sprints, don't see why he'd have a problem in a route. Actually he even rated in a route already as a 2yo. I've loved Grasshopper since early on but even I didn't think he could beat Street Sense. The difference between Grasshopper and this field though is a hell of a lot bigger than between SS and the Travers field.

all he has to do is stay in the clear and he wins. it wasn't a fluke that he pushed Street Sense all out and left the rest of the field at Saratoga in the dust. the also rans in the Travers are better than what he faces now.

i'm quite probably the biggest fan of indian charlie (the horse) in the entire world, and i say unless grasshopper falls down, past the point has no shot.

While I am not sold on Grasshopper being very good, I do think this is a one horse race and if he loses, it would probably qualify for biggest upset of the year.

The biggest upset of the year? Really? I guess I just see this race a lot differently than almost everyone else. I mean I even brought King Glorious and blackthroatedwind together against me on this one! I just don't think a victory by the 2,5,6 or 10 horse would even come close to being the upset of the year.
Grasshopper is clearly the most likely winner, but I fail to see how he has accomplished enough to make his potential defeat such a gigantic upset.

The race looks like a Grasshopper - Going Ballistic - Past the Point straight trifecta.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not against u at all. If I were to bet this race, I'd look to beat him too and because I'm not sold on him, I don't think by any means is he a lock. I just think that on paper, he towers over the field by a huge margin. It's not that he's accomplished so much; it's that his competition has accomplished so little. But he's definitely not unbeatable here.

Here is my $30 wager (if the odds are what I expect them to be):
$1 trifecta: 2,10/2,9,10/2,6,9,10
$1 exacta box: 2-9-10
$4 WP: 2
$4 WP: 10

Ah well.

Looks like I hit the $1, 10-9-6 trifecta,
the $1, 10-9 exacta,
a $4 win bet,
and a $4 place bet.
Even a blind squirrel......

Using the logic u used to tell me how Crossing the Line wasn't as good as Shakespeare, do u now place Going Ballistic on an even level with Street Sense? Sorry, couldn't resist.

Sorry but Grasshopper is NOT very good. Just another example of why these 3yo's aren't that good. They are evenly matched but nothing special.

Did you happen to notice how your current selection for the BC Mile, Silver Tree, did at 2:5 at the Meadowlands last night?

Looks like it was a bad weekend of handicapping for the experts and the novices alike.

I had a good day today at the track.....and my public selections did fine. If it makes you happy I can list the winners I have recently given out over different airways.

Why would that make me happy? It doesn't mean anything to me either way. I'm glad u had a good day at the track. But does that mean that u weren't just as wrong about Grasshopper as I was about Silver Tree? That's just the way things go. I wasn't questioning your handicapping or wagering abilities at all. I believe u are as good as anyone else.

First of all I'm kidding around....but secondly it was pretty silly for you to make those post races comments and frankly beneath you. But you know that.

By the way....Grasshopper running second is not nearly as bad as you suggesting Silver Tree was a contendor for the BC Mile. Even Bill Mott would have wept with laughter at that assertion.

And, in case you care, I judge relative competition on the turf and not particularly on the dirt.

Speak for yourself man. I have had a ton of bad weekends in a row, but finally had a decent day today.
Of course, picking the "upset of the year" always helps. There was only one problem though.......it was in no way the upset of the year.

I can't think of a bigger one.

I don't think much of Grasshopper. But I can't think of a race this year where a horse was beaten when he towered over, on paper going in, his field as much as Grasshopper did.

He had 2 high figures. It's not like Street Sense who has shown a reliability to run in the 100s in nearly all his races. Grasshopper had 2 high figures at the same exact track. I didn't see him as towering over anything, even though I thought he was the likely winner.

There is simply no way that horse should have been 1/5.
6/5 maybe....but 1/5 was ridiculous.
Personally I just don't see this as that big of an upset.
Off the top of my head, the biggest upset I can remember this year was 80/1 Spotsgone winning the G3 Hanshin Cup at Arlington over several pretty decent horses including the horse dubbed the, "best polytrack horse in the world," Lewis Michael.

maybe dominican beating street sense? or rags losing to lear's princess. or maybe even discreet cat losing to everyone in dubai--just to name a few.