Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First, on not running on the dirt again, that is hardly surprising as I would guess Tagg is one of those trainers that doesn't like to do a lot of surface switching. He certainly knows a lot better than I.

Now, as far as the comment that Showing Up " will " win millions in his career...well that may be jumping the gun. First of all, there isn't THAT much money in turf racing and to win " millions " ( yes I know he has already won around $800K ) he would have to win a few big races. But also, I'm not exactly sure how his win a couple weeks ago stamped him as a superstar. Don't get me wrong, he ran well, better than I thought he would, but he did get a perfect trip behind a blistering pace where he saved all the ground. It also was hardly a spectacular field. He has a lot of improving do, which he certainly can do considering his young age and inexperience, to catch up to even the decent American older horses out there. But, what happens if a few decent Euros show up for next month's Secretariat? My guess is they would offer a very reasonable challenge to Showing Up. What happens if a big field assembles and he doesn't draw an inside post? One thing he does have going for him is tactical speed, along with obvious talent, so he will at least be in a position to make his own trips.

I have to say, I wouldn't be so presumptuous as to argue with decisions from a guy as good as Barcley Tagg, but I can't say this seems like the best time to be conservative. There is the potential for a major payday and as was said earlier....he ran back in the Derby on TWO weeks rest.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I agree that with $600,000 available against a suspect field he needs to take a shot. It is graded too, although my friend said the grade 1 in Arlington would do more for his stud career than the VA Derby. He should win millions though simply because he is going to run at age 4 and after 5 starts he is basically half way there. The horse might not do it with grade 1 wins but there is plenty of money on the turf for him to pick up another 1M over you figure 10 more career starts. The crazy thing is that if he won next weekend he would already have $1.5M. I just don't see why he doesn't skip the Secretariat and take the easier money here. It is pretty obvious to me he liked the turf at Colonial. I still say he winds up going to the race next week.

Originally Posted by oracle80

I wouldnt be too optimistic about him even hitting the board against older horses in the Turf Invitational or Turf in the Bc. He picked the wrong year to be born, lol. The older US grass horses are as deep as any group I have ever seen. Cacique, English Channel, Relaxed Gesture, and Better Talk Now are a damn good bunch. Then you have to toss in the extremely good Euros who will both come over for those two races. Tough year for a 3Yo to tackle olders.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

http://www.drf.com/news/article/76158.html



It is towards the bottom of the article.

Sounds like he isn't running in the Virginia Derby or the Travers. Tough to go back and forth between turf and dirt.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Either that or the though that another grueling race in which they chase a lightning fast Kip Deville with Prado onboard rather than Hamilton has them taking another path. Smart move on their part if its true. I'd want no part of chasing Kip again with Prado onboard instead of the kid who opened up 17 lengths. YOu still really arent laboring under the delusion that if the kid only opened him up say by, a completely moronic 10 lengths as opposed to an incredibly moronic 17 lengths, that he was really going to beat Kip are you? I guess a lack of understanding of pace and energy expended would be expected by a guy not following the game real long.
Trust me, they want no part of Kip in that spot.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Turf Invitational is at belmont Ruler. And I think the grass decision is quite wise. Horses stay sounder on the grass and race longer. Sounds like a very good plan to me. Go for the grade one agaisnt his own generation at Arlington, then use the toughest prep for the BC(Turf Inv).

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

On top of the soundness issue from raing on grass over dirt, the 3YO dirt division is BRUTAL right now in my opinion, and I really believe he can make more money and have more success easier by staying on the grass right now - unless a bunch of Euros come over and rain on his parade but that is probably unlikely becaues they have never traveled their 3YOs for the Secretariat....The local prep for the Secretariat last Saturday was AWFUL in my opinion with Kingship holding off the German.....Showing Up obviously has nothing to worry about coming out of that race...

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Additionally, he is a Strategic Mission out of T.V. Commercial mare - so I assume that there strategy is to get as many Gr. Is under his belt as they possible can to enhance his stud value, which is a value that will alwasy have a low ceiling IMO with that pedigree.....He could do as much on the track as Skip Away and Silver Charm and still be regarded as subpar bloodstock in the breeding shed just like those two nice horses.....That is why I would chase the easier purse money with him right now while it presents itself and then tackle the big boys down the road - but I can defunately see their angle here.....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Brilliant would give him a struggle going a mile IMO, especially over the CD lawn...not saying hye is better but it would be a good race...Showing Up beats him at longer distances though....

Originally Posted by boldruler

I doubt Showing Up ever runs a race less than 9F ever again.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This I completely agree with. Without a Grade 1 on the dirt, and even then, it doesn't seem he will ever have significant stud value. Luckily, for the owners, this doesn't really matter.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I doubt Showing Up ever runs a race less than 9F ever again.

Originally Posted by boldruler

Probably not significant, but the people I have spoken with said his ability to run on the dirt and turf make him an interesting horse. Throw in a few track records and a few grade/group 1's and they will have no problem filling his book, just not at a huge price.

I get the feeling he will be around for a few years though because the money they could make off him at stud is nothing to them, especially if Barbaro turns out ok. Barbaro is a cash register in the breeding shed. Showing Up could even be around at 5 if he stays on the grass. I hope so because the US needs a turf horse that we can ship over to Europe and win a big race.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Well, the fat of the matter is that if they are shooting for the BC they have two options - The Mile or the 1 1/2-mile Turf - and the Mile typically comes up softer from the Euros standpoint....I know Brillaint is being pointed towards the BC Mile because he loves CD lawn, but I do NOT think he is good enough to win a world-class race like that unless nobody else shows up or he REALLY improves beyond what he is now....As for Showing Up, this horse showed immense speed racing around one turn at GP so I don't think a Mile is such a bad option for him....as a matter of fact, I betcha their leaning towarsd the BC Mile right now until he proves he can get 1 1/2-miles and do so effectively...just guessing based on my observations...

I don't really like Showing Up either in that spot because I alwasy prefer seeing what Euros show up first before looking at the American horses - but the fact is that the best Euro milers haven't shown up in the past two years....Showing Up could be this year's wise-guy Mile horse just like Peace Rules and Artie Schiller were two and three years ago - but I don't think he can beat the good Euros if they come...not many Americans can though...they are just better on grass and could win just about every BC grass race every year if they brought their best horses over...

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

He'll have to race fotr a few years if healthy because his stud value has such a short ceiling....hes really more valuable on the track.........

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, if you allow me that he must race in 2007, I can make a SERIOUS bet on the other side of this.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would say if one evaluates horses based on their own opinions that those opinions are far more valuable than opinions from people close to horses.

Showing Up is a " freak "? That is like people who call Smarty Jones " great ". Let's see a few more races from him. He's a good horse but how good is still very much open to debate.

Originally Posted by boldruler

He probably is. I plan on getting a mare to breed with him, but don't plan on paying his fee. ;)

Originally Posted by boldruler

He told me the same thing about Barbaro late last year. They know their stuff and his only turf race was pretty impressive so who am I to argue. They also love this Rumspringa horse in the BC Sprint.

Originally Posted by boldruler

He will definitely race next year, unless he got hurt. The BC Mile is still an option I guess but I made the stupid comment that he should be a turf miler because he ran well at one mile on the dirt and my friend laughed at me and said that means nothing.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

It is nice to have tose connections...good for you....I can't imagine his stud fee range ever getting much higher than $25,000 and he would have to do alot to get to that level IMO.....He'll probably stand for $7,500 to $20,000 with a VERY GOOD racing career - which means winning at least a couple Gr. Is and being a top class performer at least through age 4...the fat he possesses soem speed and held a one-turn track record will help to market him....if he was a plodder he would be hopeless at stud regardless of how many Gr. Is he won....breeders want pedigree and speed as much as they want to breed to a quality, top-shelf horse.....with Showing Up's pedigree he is starting well behind already and if he only accomplishes greatness on the grass it will hurt him even more...he'll need to swap back to the dirt and try to win the Met Mile next year or another improtant dirt race if he wants to be stood in a good market like KY for $10,000 or more.......If he just has grass credentials he is probably suited better standing in New York or somewhere IMO.....

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't think you made a stupid comment, and certainly don't because of what someone else said, and not only believe he could be in this year's BC mile. I could EASILY see him in the Maker's Mark at Keeneland next spring to begin his year.

He won one race, with a perfect trip against a bad field, I would hardly say the rest of his career is written on stone. And, it certainly shouldn't be.

Originally Posted by boldruler

A big win in Europe on the grass will make him a little more valuable. Believe it or not, they wanted to take Barbaro over to Europe for a race and I think that is the plan for Showing Up. I think he is likely to be in the $10,000 range if he can pull off a few grade 1's on the turf. I doubt the Met Mile will even be on his radar, I believe a big race in Europe and the BC Turf will be his targets in 2007. He is a nice dirt horse, but his beyers were nothing impressive to me on the dirt. He clearly is a better horse on the turf, which he should be based on his breeding.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I think your freind is highly irrational then....If Showing Up makes it to the BC I really think the Mile would be his best opportunity - that is unless the Classic division thins out a little between now and then....I don't think he'll Turf 1 1/2-miles and beat the Euros and I don't think he can beat Flower Alley and Bernardini, etc. going 1 1/4-miles on the dirt - although I wouldn't blame them for trying this...he is a good animal....

Originally Posted by boldruler

No more dirt for him. He really couldn't ever beat the top 3yr olds or older horses on the surface anyway. He is a nice 100 beyer type of horse on dirt. On grass they swear he is the next superstar.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

We'll see....but I still think they swap back at some point...they'd be close-minded not to try.....Plus, his stud value may really depend on it if he wants to stand in this country....seriously....nobody wants to breed to a Turf horse in North America...they just don't...

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I won't be surprised to see him in the Met Mile either. I think the evidence is FAR from conclusive that he's a better turf horse than dirt horse and as Joel has pointed out there is little interest in breeding to turf horses in the US and for reasonably good reason.

A lot of decisions about this horse's future seem to be being made based on one race. I'm not so sure the best race he ever ran wasn't his debut. And, running 6th in the Derby, on two weeks rest with little bottom, wasn't too shabby either.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, Tagg knows much better than me.

Not that I am a big believer in Beyer figs on the grass ( or any figs on the grass for that matter ) but he did get a 102 in Virginia. That's pretty good and barely puts him behind these supposed monster older horses running.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Really now. He's obviously very nice but it's pretty senseless to proclaim him a star until he meets and beats other nice horses in a race where they're all well meant. The Colonial Cup was not such a race. He ran great but after all he did have the trip of a lifetime from a favorable post and never really had to run for position or make room for his run. Let's see how he does in the Seretariat on a bit tighter course where he'll be meeting other colts who have been pointed for the race and where he'll not likely have as smooth a trip. If he wins big there, I'll be the first to proclaim him special.

Originally Posted by boldruler

They are skipping a pretty easy million dollar spot to target the Secretariat, so they must think they have something there.

Originally Posted by boldruler

Beyers on the turf are useless. Honestly I am not sure why, but I have been told this repeatedly by people. A few guys hate beyers all together. I like them because they are easy to figure out, but I am not a guy who bets real money except 2-3x a year.

Originally Posted by boldruler

Beyers on the turf are useless. Honestly I am not sure why, but I have been told this repeatedly by people. A few guys hate beyers all together. I like them because they are easy to figure out, but I am not a guy who bets real money except 2-3x a year.