I will look at the superfecta.
I agree with the public on Street Sense, but I disagree about CP West.

To me this is the key point. I think that even if everything you say is true, and this is not his "preferred set-up for a peak performance," he will almost certainly win anyway against these. If Curlin or AGS was here, that would obviously be a different story. At 10f, I don't think he needs anywhere near his peak performance to win this particular race.
On top of that, I'm not sure that we won't see a peak performance out of him. His Jim Dandy was his first back off a layoff and was clearly not the race the barn was pointing towards. Although talk of barns getting their horse to peak for specific races is generally incredibly overblown, this one seems to do very well when they are gunning for a particular race as they are here.
My larger point was that I often think people get locked in to trying to "beat" all odds-on favorites. While this can be a good general principle, not all odds-on favorites are created equally. If a horse is 3/5 or 4/5 and should be 1/5....there is some value there. As far as I am concerned Street Sense falls into this range. Say he goes off at 3/5 and Grasshopper goes off at 8/1. To me there is more value in Street Sense than in a horse making his stakes debut, and his 10f debut, in a G1 race with a horse like Street Sense. Could Grasshopper win? Sure. But I would put the odds on that happening at about 20/1.

1/2 is the highest you will see on him.

I'll tri key Street Sense over CP West and Grasshopper

I think Street Sense is such bad odds, and I think a previous poster might have nailed it, with a smaller field, and pace, , he might not run according to form. He has the class, no doubt to win from anywhere, but he does have a habit of winning or losing by just enough. He hung and gawked against Curlin, and was all out to beat Any Given Saturday. He had to run down Hard Spun with a perfect trip. Might be a time to take a shot...esp if he does go off at 1 to 9. why not....Graveyard of favorites..... don't spend a lot, but maybe get a lot back. Grasshopper I hear alot about, but like a previous poster said, might be the wiseguy horse.... Maybe bet on the 20-1 shot? For You Reppo? Haskin kinda mentioned the horse sheepishly last night on Steve's show, as maybe a horse that was interesting.....

For You Reppo is interesting. His pedigree says no, but he has a foundation of 9f races, and a good trainer. Gomez can ride... why not


No one should beat Street Sense here, unless Street Sense tires unexpectedly.

Grasshoper has the most unknown potential, but I think Sightseeing has solid form.

If Sightseeing could magically combine the best aspects of his last two races -
The Dwyer where he makes excellent headway on the backstretch before getting sandwiched, and The Dandy where he shows late interest -
Sightseeing could at least make Street Sense work. Then sightseeing could magically combine some pick-6 tickets for me.:D

I still keep leaning on Street Sense being a Churchill Downs lover / horse for course. In his last 6 races he has had 2 blow out wins at CD and in the 4 races at other tracks (you can even go back to races before his Juvenile victory at Kee / AP) he has been in "dogfights" and he even lost 2 of those 4 "dogfights" to horses he toyed with at CD (much of this can also be made of the pace scenario noted above). He may win, but if I am going to take between 1 to 5 and 1-2 I want a horse that is clearly 5 lenghts better than the remainder of the field. At CD I would agree. I am not as inclined at any other track. I would lean towards Grasshopper or Sightseeing if SS goes off too low.

you may be right about the churchill angle, although i think there is a little more to it. i'm working up some detailed thoughts on how i see this race breaking down and will post it later. bottom line is i agree with you that if Street sense wins this this race it will be another hard fought one length win.

Initial thoughts, this appears to be a COLD Street Sense over Sightseeing exacta, with a possible reverse. Grasshopper, off the 4pt TG top, seems to be a bounce candidate, and I don't like the pattern on CP West.

Totally agree and hope for an $8 exacta

I disagree with people who say he is just a CD lover, because of how he ran at Pimlico. He didn't win that day, but it was arguably the best race he has run yet. I sound like a HUGE Street Sense fan in this thread, and I'm really not, but against this particular field I would be absolutely SHOCKED if he doesn't win.

If Street Sense goes off at 3/5 my bet is definitely in.
Its just a matter if I want to drive all the way to the track to bet and then it falls to 1/5.

I think Ajim has an interesting way of viewing this horse but I also agree 10f is just too long to beat this horse with these even on a bad day. 70 to 80% chance Street Sense wins.

Huh?
 

Remember Upset?!? :eek: :eek: :eek:

when he owns the rail on the second turn and has a solid pace to run into, he is real tough, (Juvenile, derby, preakness) i don't think he gets either today.

when he is denied the rail, or the pace is moderate to slow, or both, he ends up in a fight that he can still win but not a sure thing at low odds. (Tampa Bay, Bluegrass, Jim Dandy)


of course Street Sense will be no surprise today no matter how they run it, but I'm picking Grasshopper despite adding 9 pounds, another furlong, and a big class hike.:eek:

Sight Seeing will need a slow pace and to be on even-terms with Street Sense to have a shot. He was content to track in the Dandy.

Cornelio will probably ride CP pretty honest and I don't expect him to race-ride Street Sense. Albarado has to take a shot with Grasshopper, the pace and the rail should open up late if not early.

Gomez on For You Reppo is about the biggest threat to race-ride and box-in Street Sense, but if the pace opens up so will the room.

Sightseeing stunk

but grasshopper looked good. one to keep an eye on when the top horses all retire in a few months.

congrats to street sense, looked a bit like a battle, but the champ prevails. first 2 yo champ/derby/travers winner in YEARS and years.

You nailed it along with stating Grasshopper is one to watch.

I bow.

nicely done jim!

he will be a huge underlay next time. he rode the softest ground saving trip off all time to still get beat in a mediocre time. I would be betting against all these next out other then street sense.

wow did Grasshopper give me a thrill there. after six furlongs I was thinking he might be able to hold off Street Sense. Borel used different tactics today and it paid off. Hats off to Street Sense but no shame in Grasshoppers performance. Unreal that today was only his sixth race, first stakes race, only second time routing, and he nearly takes down a dual classic winner at 10 furlongs.

Jim, My question for you now is, did Street Sense answer your questions about him yesterday? And I don't mean that in a smart-ass way, I am actually curious. On the one hand:
1) He had no pace to run at considering Grasshopper got clear and got the half in :48.12.
2) He didn't get his preferred rail trip at all, and was pretty wide around the first turn.
3) He was certainly out of his element being that close to the pace with so few horses in front of him.
In spite of these problems he still prevailed over what seems like a pretty good horse in Grasshopper, and beat his two Jim Dandy rivals by over 16 lengths this time.
But on the other hand, your pre-race point that he lacked the same explosion under these conditions seems to be somewhat validated by the relatively slow time for the final quarter and the fact that he didn't blow by Grasshopper.
Just curious as to how your (or anyone's) take on the horse has changed after this race...if at all.

maybe no 'explosion' since he was trying to close into a race with not much pace. closers won't look as amazing when the leaders still have plenty of gas left. of course, yesterday he wasn't much of a closer, more of a stalker laying that close to the lead. but it's a good thing he did.

i'm not ready to award him the bcc yet. altho there aren't any real superstars in the older division, he will still face a more formidable challenge from some of them that he hasn't gotten from his own peers.

but i do think he's sealed the deal on top 3 yo.

Of course not, but to me he seems like the most likely winner at this point. His major competition will probably come from his own crop in the form of AGS and/or Curlin. Lawyer Ron is obviously a possible winner, but I still have serious doubts about his ability to get 10f.
As a fan of the sport I am starting to like Street Sense more and more. Since he has lost quite a few times we don't have to hear all of the over-the-top accolades that people showered on Discreet Cat and Bernardini last year. Street Sense is a really good - but flawed - animal. When you take a horse that is as good as he is, and mix in a tendency to hang just a little, the result can be great racing. The Tampa Bay Derby, Preakness, and Travers have all been great races and he went 2 out of 3 in those. He isn't perfect and everybody knows it, but he is a good horse that usually runs in the big races and makes them fun to watch. You can't ask for much more than that.

i've enjoyed the show he's put on all year. i can't imagine why anyone wouldn't have. he has certainly done a lot more than many could have hoped. on his biggest days, he has truly shined. maybe he can add one more championship race to his win column. his accomplishments outshine many colts from years' past already. it would be amazing to have a 2 yo champ and bcj winner take the derby, travers, and classic in the same year.

Well he showed me something different, as that race did not fit the model that I had been talking about. I really think the race gives us an accurate untainted view of what Street Sense can do.

What surprised me? That Borel kept him in the clear in the two path, that he didn't try any rail hugging shenanigans, that he ran a more or less balanced race in terms of how his speed was rationed out. That he didn't try any big run, he just rode him confidently in the manner that I would have expected for a 2/5 favorite. It was a better race than his Jim Dandy.

I have read where some are talking the effort down a bit because all he beat was a lightly raced allowance horse. yeah right! That allowance horse is something special having never carried that weight or went that distance or competed against the best, but here he is battling to the wire with the division leader while others that were supposed to give Street Sense a tussle were out of the picture. I don't know what Grasshoppers future plans are, he has come so far so fast this year, would they consider the classic? Most people would off of a race like that but my god that is a lot to ask.

Street Sense is solid in every way, a little quirky in the stretch almost everytime, I didn't envy Albarado being in between Street Sense and the rail.:eek: You know that is going to get real tight.

Looking ahead to the Classic, I still would rate Lawyer Ron and Any Given Saturday ahead of Street Sense at this point, with Street Sense not that far back.

why do you put any given saturday ahead of street sense?

just comparing AGS's form in the Dwyer and Haskell to SS's Jim Dandy and Travers. It looks like AGS has moved forward, after his break he has come back with two eye catching scores in fast times. he is real sharp now whereas Street Sense kinda still seems to be what he has always been which is not a knock. I think Street Sense will be vulnerable in the Classic against a horse that finishes as strongly as AGS has in his last two.

ok, thanks.
on the other hand tho, every time street sense has met with saturday, hasn't he been the winner? barely in the tampa bay tho.
i think that match up is more tantalizing then sense and curlin. hope they both make it to the bcc in top form, might be one to talk about for some time to come.

yes Street Sense has the edge in head to head match-ups, but like I said AGS doesn't look like the same horse from the derbies, Tampa and CD. We could have a deep and competitive classic this year if they all make it in.

Its all speculation until they meet up again. I give Street Sense the edge over AGS.

SS seems to be all out to win or place in any race not at Churchill. Give him credit...with the exception of that weird Blue Grass and the Preakness, he DOES win. AGS will get my money at Monmouth.

What's next? Personally, I think Carl should reward Calvin and send him to the Super Derby in Nawlins on Sept 22. It would be perfect spacing. If SS enters, the purse goes from 500K to a million. There are a few 3 yos that have run in the Super Derby and done very well in the BCC. Sunday, Concern, asnd Tiznow immediately come to mind.