Let me ask you this, how much have you played tracks with poly, on a consistent basis?

The great thing about poly is the amount of misinformation going around and that people tend to react irrationally when faced with this new variable.

They might be basic, but the public sure hasn't picked up on them yet.

How can you argue about something that you haven't had alot of experience with?

Sometimes the simplest angles go over looked, which happens on all surfaces, but as aj said, people overreact to this stuff, all they have to do is change up their capping a little

I think the addition of a third surface has to help good handicappers in the long run. Being able to track the patterns of dirt-to-poly and poly-to-dirt performances is crucial.
At Arlington, for example, there have been a number of horses coming in off nice performances at CD or Hawthorne that have been seriously overbet (especially on Saturdays when there is a lot of dead money at the track) because the switch to poly wasn't given enough consideration. I also think the "turf horses love poly" angle has been seriously overblown, so horses with good turf form are often severely overbet in their poly debuts.
So like I said, I think the addition of a third surface helps the good handicappers. That, of course, is why I hate it. I need something to help us crappy handicappers.

I find it very hard to believe that synth. is totally random surface.
One of the main problems is the belief that fast horses are better. Or horses with a high cruising rate are better. It might just be this surface plays to endurance in a very diff. way that grass. And the horses you think or thought were crap (for whatever reason; its usually price or level run at on dirt), are actually tough animals in a war of attrition on a tiring surface. Or maybe they have a hoovestrike and stride that works well on the surface under certain conditions.

There has to be a way to cap it. It may be People are going to have to change notions and old habits drastically. I just have a hard time labeling a horse as crap when he/she has just beaten 9 other horses just because I lost a bet.

Hell maybe its just a matter of a horse relaxing and not battling the surface. Especially if they have been bred for, and trained on dirt.

I am glad it is here. And I am glad it adds some confusion. Because that leaves openings for folks willing to try and figure it out. I have seen many more horses in each race on the stuff, and larger payouts. I dont see what is wrong with that unless you are stuck on old methods that dont work anymore.

Now after stating all this betting stuff. I would much rather watch a horse run on dirt because its beautiful the way the horses can stride out on it. It really makes the horses look like the great athletes they are.

it isn't anywhere close to random. i would like to know how people are coming to this conclusion. where is the data? frankly I find it less random than dirt.

I will admit syn. is more confusing for me, but I really have not had time to look at it closely. So I will defer to the more resourceful, flexible, everyday cappers.

California was in DESPERATE need for it. Santa Anita track was horrible about breakdowns as was Del Mar.

I actually don't think this is as much about the actual surface but the actual bottom of the track. When installing poly track, you essentially start from ground zero, thus installing an even track. The old 'bottom' of Arlington was horrible, which led to all those breakdowns last year, with the new bottom, we have had substantially less. The recent breakdowns were because the horses were sore and had major problems, but we haven't had any healthy horses break down because of the surface, not a one

There were like 40 breakdowns, and about 20 of them were in the same exact on the track. Far turn near the rail

Arlington

Per Bruce Headley speaking about old school handicappers having problems.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/87604.html

If there is money to be made, they will come. You can be sure of that. It may be like a new market has opened up.

Scav,

The past 2 years have been the first 2 that I've started playing So-Cal tracks on a somewhat frequent basis. Why? The field sizes. Whether it has something to do with the switch to poly or not, the field sizes are getting bigger, and therefore bettable. Yuo're still seeing the 5 and 6-horse fields, but not nearly as much as a few years ago.

I believe Arlington had 24 breakdowns last year, not 40. As for the earlier comment about randomness with Polytrack, there's no question its more random. Until the majority of horses have run 5-6 times over it, one can only draw limited conclusions. I'll bet TP, where 95% of the non-maidens have run over it, and I feel speed at least has some chance. But the crap that they run on at Kee, AP and Dmr is just brutal to watch. It looks like all the speed tires, and the deep closers can't get in gear quick enough, and the midpack runners basically inherit the win with their one paced style. And ALL the runners look like they are struggling in the stretch. Let's hope PETA doesnt watch these debacles.

I find some horseman's comments very strange: they talk about the surface not "breaking away" like dirt, yet the horses' hooves must be sinking in further because the times are so much slower. What gives? And supposedly the horses come back after a race or workout and barely blowing? Yet it seems that every horse is struggling in the stretch....yet another contradiction.

I have a question regarding the DM surface vs other polytracks at Arlington, Keeneland, TP, and Woodbine. It seems DM Management was insistant on not watering the track, as some horsemen had asked to perhaps tighten it up, or make it firmer. Now DM will get no rain during their meet at all. Yet the other polytracks all get rain during their meets and the tracks seem to play fairer or at least time wise a bit more normal. What effect would one or two rounds of the water truck, a day, have on the track, that rain at the other places have been able to handle? I cant see it hurting the track as the rain is supposed to filter thru the track and keep it "fast" all the time. Was it something to do with not putting the "jelly" thing into the DM polytrack vs the other poly's?

I am all for a safe surface yet it seems the research and scenarios to keep a surface safe, and competive were not done.

JJ, I was including morning breakdowns also in that 40 number, 24 was during races. I think that 40 number is actually larger

Why are you up so late?

Thats quite possible if you factor in the morning training.

I think there's going to be one very strong angle when Hawthorne opens: speed horses who tired at AP.

No job, I can do whatever I want now, it is awesome

JJP, lets keep that angle to ourselves, that is an amazing thought process right there. We can really unload on that the first couple days and let the minions figure it out at a later date. Great find right there. Speed horses that are off form suddenly find Hawthorne form. Big fan right there.

Why aren't you in Saratoga then?

I have alot of commitments in the next couple weeks up here. A wedding, handicapping contest, two Cubs games, and a Bears preseason game. Still cleaning my wounds from the first trip, almost healed.

he'd be handy around the barn...

I hope you didn't pay for those tickets. Preseason football is absolutely unwatchable.

One of the biggest travesties in sports is the NFL Owners forcing their season ticket holders to buy tickets to preseason games at full price.

I can't give them away, nobody wants to go see a 4-12 team (for that matter, I couldn't give them away after they won the Super Bowl), playing scrubs after one series, in 95 degree heat with not a breath of wind blowing through the stadium.

We always go to one preseason just for the hell of it, it keeps us out of trouble. Never pay for them.

Word here is that the Bears are HUNGRY this year and no let down. Schedule is playable and the offensive looks to be real serious. Who knows if that holds but pretty excited. Upgrading the jerseys this weekend as I am going to get a Benson and a Harris Jersey, so when they are on offensive going to rock the benson jersey and when on D going to rock the Harris jersey, and no, not Walt Harris.

I only got to one Patriots game last year. Good job it was against the Bears Scav.

I agree with Bigs, there is nothing worse than preseason football.

Pre-season baseball isn't all it's cracked up to be either.

no argument from me on that.

but for football whats so irritating is that they make you buy tickets for the preseason games when you purchase season tickets. and they're full price!

I was in vegas for that game, felt like my balls got hit with a hammer after that debacle. Should have beat them also. We are going undefeated this year so it is all good :)

Bears regular season tickets were out of control this year, sold out in 10 minutes. I only got one game, and only 4 tickets, and I needed 12 for the annual tailgating party. Home against the Lions

I thoroughly enjoy Spring Training....it may have something to do with the weather being nice, most games being during the day so work must be blown off, and the beer being cold. I also enjoy seeing National League teams that I don't normally get to see throughout the seasaon. The product on the field is not much to look at, but it is a fun afternoon out. The newer stadiums are very comfortable and clean. Legends Field in Tampa (Yankees) and Bright House in Clearwater (Phillies) are very nice.

Watch on Spring Training on TV? No way.

I agree, spring training is the bomb live. When i was like 12 i went to the Rangers camp, when Drugseco was there and caught like four of his homers. I played catch with Pudge Rodriguez(his first year up) because my dad knew the pitching coach at the time, Tom House. I learned the "Karatechop curve" from him, which is a breaking ball that has zero elbox pressure, for youngsters.

My dad got into verbal confrontation with Ruben Sierra becuase he was an ******* and shut his porsche door on me, pretty hilarious

I'll take the Lions + ... ?

Smartass....I jinxed myself last year. NO WAGERS. I still owe you, don't think I forgot. I am hoping to come down there in the winter and check out Gulfstream so that is when we will party.

Stick with the Harris Jersey. That guy is the goods.

Benson... errr... not good for a number one running back. Hope they got a good back up. Lots of team are going to a one two punch. Benson cant last the whole season. He gets hit way too hard. And unless his blocking has improved, dont expect Grossman to stay alive on a playfake.

I have been at the Del -Mar meet this whole season , there has not been one horse put down on the Poly , yes there have been injuries but if some of these would have happened on the old surface those horses would be dead and that is a fact.
I still hold by my theory on betting Poly at Del Mar , look at the P.P's , horses who have ran consistant 12 's with no fast beggining 1/4 and no fast finishing 1/4 are doing well , I cashed on Threadneedle with this angle and even tho I only bet 2 across I made 38.60, I picked Karlees Kitten the other day because of said above reason and she won also. I bet on our mare Ex Caeles even tho she was a route mare shortening back up because if you looked at her lines on dirt she ran 12's. Im not a handicapper or gambler or I would bet more than 2 across , but it sure seems this could be an angle to look at .