Derby Trail Forums - Hard Spun to the King's Bishop

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- - Hard Spun to the King's Bishop (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15794)

ArlJim78

08-07-2007 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Considering I've not bet him to win in any of these big races so far.....It's not like I've been chasing this horse.

The older horse division is pretty damn weak.

Hard Spun will run much better uncontested than he will stalking--where he tends to get rank...which he even did in his win at Turfway that you mentioned.

Where is his bad race when he's made the lead?

where is any race of his that demonstrates he could win the classic? there will likely be three 3yo's that have beat him at various distances, (Street Sense, Curlin, AGS). To me its inconceivable that even if he inherits an easy lead that he will lull everyone to sleep and steal it, even given the weakness of the older division.

I'm not a historian, has the classic ever been wired? if so how many times.?

in all honesty i get the sense that you are joking.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 11:42 AM

Joking about what?

NoLuvForPletch

08-07-2007 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

where is any race of his that demonstrates he could win the classic? there will likely be three 3yo's that have beat him at various distances, (Street Sense, Curlin, AGS). To me its inconceivable that even if he inherits an easy lead that he will lull everyone to sleep and steal it, even given the weakness of the older division.

I'm not a historian, has the classic ever been wired? if so how many times.?

in all honesty i get the sense that you are joking.

Actually it's been done 3 times:

1991 - Black Tie Affair
2000 - Tiznow
2004 - the amazing Ghostzapper

NTamm1215

08-07-2007 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

CJ had the pace figure blisteringly fast for the Derby...and that 3rd quarter you speak of was factored into the figure.

If that 3rd quarter helped Hard Spun so much, wouldn't it also have helped the horses who stalked his pace from the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th? They all finished a mile up the track.

Actually most of the stalkers were headed backwards by then given that horses like Teuflesberg, Stormello, and Cowtown Cat really had no chance. After the quarter that I spoke of the first four horses were:

Hard Spun-Sedgefield-Street Sense-Any Given Saturday-Nobiz Like Shobiz. That quarter basically allowed Street Sense to make that big move around the turn and get right into contention.

I am not interested in debating whether the pace in the Derby was hot, because we can both agree that it was, whether there was a slow quarter in there or not. However, our opinions differ significantly on Hard Spun's future (in)ability to win a 1 1/4 mile race against the upper echelon.

NT

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm not a historian, has the classic ever been wired? if so how many times.?

Wild Again dueled with Slew O' Gold's rabbit through insane fractions and won at a big price (he was 30/1 on the ML)

I'm almost positive Skywalker won wire-to-wire

Black Tie Affair went wire-to-wire and earned one of the all-time fastest Beyers in the history of the race

Ghostzapper went wire-to-wire and earned jointly the all-time fastest figure in the history of this race.

You have to remember though, there was no BC Dirt Mile in years past, and the cheap speed horses who run in the Classic each year would have gone in that race if there had been.

ArlJim78

08-07-2007 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Joking about what?

about Hard Spun sneaking off and winning the classic.

ArlJim78

08-07-2007 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Actually it's been done 3 times:

1991 - Black Tie Affair
2000 - Tiznow
2004 - the amazing Ghostzapper

thanks,

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

However, our opinions differ significantly on Hard Spun's future (in)ability to win a 1 1/4 mile race against the upper echelon.

I'm delighted to hear.

I just wish HS would be kept routing so I could have the oppertunity to get the inflated odds he'd be....based on this silly concept that he isn't capable of beating slightly better horses in a race tailor-made for him.

SentToStud

08-07-2007 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

where is any race of his that demonstrates he could win the classic? there will likely be three 3yo's that have beat him at various distances, (Street Sense, Curlin, AGS). To me its inconceivable that even if he inherits an easy lead that he will lull everyone to sleep and steal it, even given the weakness of the older division.

I'm not a historian, has the classic ever been wired? if so how many times.?

in all honesty i get the sense that you are joking.

I remember... Ghostzapper, Tiznow @ CD, Cat Thief?, Black Tie Affair, Wild Again?. I think...

NTamm1215

08-07-2007 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Just a shot in the dark, but I'm guessing the so-called "silly" concept emanates from his numerous defeats against slightly better horses and his one graded stakes win against much, much worse competition.

NT

ateamstupid

08-07-2007 11:58 AM

I think that Hard Spun has the potential to be a one-turn MONSTER. This is totally the right move, but unfortunately, with this crop, you're gonna face some very good horses at any distance you try. Black Seventeen and Teuflesberg will give him fits.

declansharbor

08-07-2007 12:01 PM

He's already racing against the toughest competition that he's going to face come BC day IMO. He's already finished ahead of Curlin, while both coming off of the shelf. AGS was prepped and ready for this last one obviously. He finished well with SS in the Derby, a race that many pitch due to it's unique style. There isnt an older male or female out there that would send tremors through his camp, as they believe he has been running against the best all year. (save Turfway race)
To say that he's on a different "tier" than the other 3 yr. olds is laughable. He's right there with them all. I guess we'll have to wait and see for the last weekend in OCtober.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I just seem to be missing where Hard Spun is a Classic contender. Am I having a bad dream and this is the Rockport Harbor website?

He just ran a 108 Beyer at MTH, off a layoff, where an early stumble cost him his chance of making the pace.

You are talking about as though he sucks.

I was dumb enough to have bet Any Given Saturday in the Derby, I know he had trouble and came out of it with a foot bruise, but he's had by far the best trip in each of his last two wins.

Street Sense has dressed up form and won't get the kind of pace he needs to produce his best.

Lawyer Ron was beaten at MTH by loose speed Gottcha Gold less than two months ago, anyone who knows JRV's style of riding knows this horse won't be applying pressure to the front-runner.

Curlin is another horse who needs pace...HS has beaten him in two of their four encounters.

There is no one else out there.

SniperSB23

08-07-2007 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Has Black Seventeen gone seven furlongs yet? I think Hard Spun can handle the Teuf at 7 furlongs.

declansharbor

08-07-2007 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I remember... Ghostzapper, Tiznow @ CD, Cat Thief?, Black Tie Affair, Wild Again?. I think...

His race was probably the most visually impressive win that I've ever seen (on replay). Unbelievable how he was still there at the wire, let alone fending off a late charge by a stretch runner. Wasn't that the inception year of BC?

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

None of those races played to his style like the Breeders Cup Classic likely will.

It's as if a lot of you guys assume circumstances have nothing to do with outcomes.

NoLuvForPletch

08-07-2007 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Who were the high quality speed horses in the Derby?

I'm not taking away anything from Hard Spun's performance, it was a very nice effort, but he was alone on the lead. SS did have a dream trip up the rail, but who didn't think he was going to try and come through the rail. It's no secret where he prefers to be and how Borel rides. And I know SS got the pace to run at, but like you said, everyone knew the speed was going to be there.

I just seem to be missing where Hard Spun is a Classic contender. Am I having a bad dream and this is the Rockport Harbor website?

Since I started this thing, and do really love Hard Spun, I just want to be clear that in no way do I endorse him running in the Classic. I'm tired of watching him try so hard, only to come up short. I like King's Bishop, Kelso, and if successful in the Kelso the BC Mile. If for some reason the Danzig colt doesn't like the grass, an outcome that would be tough to fathom, then run him in either the mile dirt or BC Sprint. IMO the mile dirt is cheesy so I'd take my chances in the BC Sprint based on his performance in the King's Bishop.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Visually impressive? No doubt about it!

However, it wasn't fast. They ran the Breeders Cup Distaff at 10 furlongs back than, and the spectacular Princess Rooney's final time in victory was much faster than Wild Again's.

It was the inagural Breeders Cup.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Since you are privy to the BC Classic entries months before all of us and are sure SS won't get the pace he needs to be at his best, who else is in, so I can start handicapping?

I don't think he sucks, but I just don't think he is at his best going 10 furlongs. I don't care how we are going to assume that the Monmouth track is going to carry his speed, because it didn't Sunday.

I will say I am amused by your continued distain for Street Sense.

He was not on the lead Saturday.

Your last sentance is totally stupid. I know you're smarter than that.

SentToStud

08-07-2007 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Yes, 1984. W.A. beat off Precisionist andd one other speed horse and somehow held off Gate Dancer and Slew O Gold. Hell of a race.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 12:14 PM

I believe the other speed horse was a rabbit for Slew O' Gold who was gunned from the outset.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 12:22 PM

Hossy my friend,

Hopefully the logic fairy pays you a visit tonight and leaves you something under your pillow.

Like you say though, it's probably pointless to argue this with HS's connections planning to cut-back to sprint races.

I only wish that wasn't the case, as I'd LOVE to bet this horse in the future book. He's the only contender for that race with any colored form, and he's the one far and away most likely to get things his own way, yet he can't beat horses who've shown a slight edge over him repeatedly, in races constantly run to his rivals benefit.

Indian Charlie

08-07-2007 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

For some bizarre reason they are running Idiot Proof in a Cal-bred stakes on the polytrack. I would have liked to have seen him go in the King's Bishop since like you said, it isn't exactly Murderers' Row.

bizarre aint the word i was thinking sniper.

i guess the horse isnt idiot proof after all.

SentToStud

08-07-2007 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I believe the other speed horse was a rabbit for Slew O' Gold who was gunned from the outset.

I couldn't remember so I looked it up. It was Mugatee. btw, here's a link to all the BCC charts.http://breederscup.com/images/02_CLASSIC.pdf

ArlJim78

08-07-2007 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

None of those races played to his style like the Breeders Cup Classic likely will.

It's as if a lot of you guys assume circumstances have nothing to do with outcomes.

but you are assuming that you can win the classic based on merely on favorable pace circumstances. don't you think this his classic competitors will have a say in this and will not sit idly by while HS steals the race.

your seem to imply that the presense of Cable Boy was the main reason for AGS getting the Haskell win.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

but you are assuming that you can win the classic based on merely on favorable pace circumstances.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

don't you think this his classic competitors will have a say in this and will not sit idly by while HS steals the race.

The main contenders won't....that is for sure. Any Given Saturday isn't fast enough to press him...and Garret Gomez isn't that style of rider.

JRV will back Lawyer Ron, that I have no doubt of.

Street Sense and Curlin obviously won't be dueling with any front-runners.

A horse like Wanderin Boy, who would normally run in the Classic, would opt for the Dirt Mile and 70 yards. Same with a horse like Fairbanks.

The thing I'd love most about Hard Spun's chances, is the precieved notion that he doesn't want to stay 10 furlongs. Because of that, whoever is sitting 2nd is much more likely to try and settle his horse in hand.

If anyone remembers back to Ghostzapper, the idiotic questions about his (in)ability to see out the 10 furlong distance was the reason he was allowed an unpressured lead.

GZ and Roses In May sailed 1-2 at every call all around the track.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

DrugS, how am I being illogical in regards to how the pace will unfold in the Classic? I get trying to project how it will be, but isn't it a tad early to be definitive about it.

Not if you're looking to make a future book bet.

Why even talk about the race at all if you're not?

The logic fairy swipe was more in regard to your low-blows about the Rockpart Harbor website and suggesting that I somehow have a bias against Street Sense because I called his form dressed up.

NoLuvForPletch

08-07-2007 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You are right...you most certainly can.

See Black Tie Affair and his 122 Beyer figure.

I'm just about convinced this year's pace will be as soft as any Classic I've seen in my lifetime. The advent of the BC Dirt Mile can be thanked for that.

The main contenders won't....that is for sure. Any Given Saturday isn't fast enough to press him...and Garret Gomez isn't that style of rider.

JRV will back Lawyer Ron, that I have no doubt of.

Street Sense and Curlin obviously won't be dueling with any front-runners.

A horse like Wanderin Boy, who would normally run in the Classic, would opt for the Dirt Mile and 70 yards. Same with a horse like Fairbanks.

The thing I'd love most about Hard Spun's chances, is the precieved notion that he doesn't want to stay 10 furlongs. Because of that, whoever is sitting 2nd is much more likely to try and settle his horse in hand.

If anyone remembers back to Ghostzapper, the idiotic questions about his (in)ability to see out the 10 furlong distance was the reason he was allowed an unpressured lead.
GZ and Roses In May sailed 1-2 at every call all around the track.

While he doesn't stop running, per se, and we've seen him run a mile and a quarter rather fast and well in the set up you are decribing in the Derby, it doesn't explain why he has no immediate response to another horse when he comes up along side and goes by. It is hard to believe he will be "unchallenged" the entire race in the Classic.

As it pertains to Ghostzapper, there isn't a person alive who thought this horse could run his opening 6f in 1:11, that was why they didn't go with him. In the Woodward Ghostzapper and Sait Liam went 1/2 mile in 45:3 and 6f in 1:08:3.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyQvN...d%2F1911520517

How do they notate a "zop" in the form?

The Bid

08-07-2007 01:18 PM

I think Azeri getting off slow had a lot to do with Ghostzappers uncontested lead in the BC. I think she would have pressed him

SniperSB23

08-07-2007 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You are right...you most certainly can.

See Black Tie Affair and his 122 Beyer figure.

I'm just about convinced this year's pace will be as soft as any Classic I've seen in my lifetime. The advent of the BC Dirt Mile can be thanked for that.

The main contenders won't....that is for sure. Any Given Saturday isn't fast enough to press him...and Garret Gomez isn't that style of rider.

JRV will back Lawyer Ron, that I have no doubt of.

Street Sense and Curlin obviously won't be dueling with any front-runners.

A horse like Wanderin Boy, who would normally run in the Classic, would opt for the Dirt Mile and 70 yards. Same with a horse like Fairbanks.

The thing I'd love most about Hard Spun's chances, is the precieved notion that he doesn't want to stay 10 furlongs. Because of that, whoever is sitting 2nd is much more likely to try and settle his horse in hand.

If anyone remembers back to Ghostzapper, the idiotic questions about his (in)ability to see out the 10 furlong distance was the reason he was allowed an unpressured lead.

GZ and Roses In May sailed 1-2 at every call all around the track.

Wanderin Boy opted to skip the Classic last year when he could have run in it. Now he'll likely run in the Dirt Mile yet he'll be used as an example of a pace horse lost from the Classic even though he wouldn't have run in it either way. I think you are overestimating the lure of an ungraded $1 million race as opposed to a $5 million G1 that is the biggest race on the planet. The horses that go in the Dirt Mile will for the most part be horses that wouldn't have run in the BC otherwise. Perhaps Brother Derek and Suave would have been lost from the field last year, certainly an impact on the race but it is hardly going to turn into a situation where the Dirt Mile turns the Classic into a paceless affair. This could all change though if the purse in the Dirt Mile were to be boosted in the future and it were elevated to G1 status. For now though anyone that feels they have enough of a chance in the Classic to enter will do so regardless of whether or not there is a Dirt Mile as an option.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The Rockport Harbor thing was a joke.

Cool, but I was dead serious about the logic fairy. She is real

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

because honestly, all of this talk about an also ran in the major 3 year old races is a bit odd to me.

Any Given Saturday finished behind Sightseeing and Nobiz in the Wood, and followed that up with an 8th place finish in the Derby at double digit odds. It's funny what good horses are capable of showing when things go exactly to their benefit...as what as happened in AGS's last two big efforts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You have to admit, you aren't Street Sense's biggest fan and while I don't know for sure, I'm willing to bet you don't like him much as a racehorse.

I wasn't exactly rooting for C. P. West to hold him off or anything. I'm not a fan of his though...that much is true.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Wanderin Boy opted to skip the Classic last year when he could have run in it. Now he'll likely run in the Dirt Mile yet he'll be used as an example of a pace horse lost from the Classic even though he wouldn't have run in it either way. I think you are overestimating the lure of an ungraded $1 million race as opposed to a $5 million G1 that is the biggest race on the planet. The horses that go in the Dirt Mile will for the most part be horses that wouldn't have run in the BC otherwise. Perhaps Brother Derek and Suave would have been lost from the field last year, certainly an impact on the race but it is hardly going to turn into a sitatuion where the Dirt Mile turns the Classic into a paceless affair. This could all change though if the purse in the Dirt Mile were to be boosted in the future and it were elevated to G1 status. For now though anyone that feels they have enough of a chance in the Classic to enter will do so regardless of whether or not there is a Dirt Mile as an option.

I don't agree.

Lawyer Ron....who would be the clear-cut consensus favorite for the BC Classic among the older males...he was being pointed to the BC Dirt Mile as lately as less than one month ago.

Even before he went to post as the favorite for the Met Mile, his goal was the BC Dirt Mile. I'm sure his Whitney performance changes that.

I think you'd be surprised at how many trainers would rather be 3rd or 4th choice in the Dirt Mile betting, than 8th or 9th choice (at massive odds) in the Classic betting.

SniperSB23

08-07-2007 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They were thinking Dirt Mile since they thought there was no chance of him getting 10 furlongs. Now that he ran so well at nine they will take the shot in the Classic even though they know he'd have a better chance of winning the Dirt Mile. Had he not run well at nine and there was no BC Dirt Mile then he would have probably skipped the BC altogether to run in the Cigar Mile. The past two years there have been graded stakes on the undercard at a mile or a mile and a sixteenth. I don't expect the BC Dirt Mile field to take the Classic horses this year any more than those races did. Like I said, if it becomes a G1 someday then it does become huge competition for the Classic and will cannibalize it but I don't think anyone will be treating it like a G1 option this year.

The Indomitable DrugS

08-07-2007 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Like I said, if it becomes a G1 someday then it does become huge competition for the Classic and will cannibalize it but I don't think anyone will be treating it like a G1 option this year.

You are over-emphasizing the value the Grade 1 status brings to the race. It might not have the label, but it is still a Breeders Cup race.

If anyone remembers the first running of the American Oaks, it was ungraded, but still managed to draw a spectacular field of horses from all acorss the country and world.

A few years from now, when every BC race has Grade 1 status, I doubt the winners of the inital few runnings will have the ungraded status held against their win.

alysheba4

08-07-2007 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Yes, 1984. W.A. beat off Precisionist andd one other speed horse and somehow held off Gate Dancer and Slew O Gold. Hell of a race.

........gate dancer was robbed in what could have been the biggest stwards blown call in the history of the b cup:mad:

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