LOL Jim, yes there is a little bit for every angle player in these races.

If I don't get any stronger feelings tonight, I may not play and just root for another carry.

I'll be back on later with some thoughts on the first three races and would love to hear what others are thinking.

gotcha....makes tons of sense now. thanks.

The reason one plays carryovers is that they eliminate takeout. That being said, some are simply too tough for whatever bankroll you have.

Having a strong opinion in 4 or 5 races seems pretty remote to me.

To Root's point, is there one particular structure you would recommend, such as:

AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
ABC/A/A/A/A/A
A/ABC/A/A/A/A
A/A/ABC/A/A/A
A/A/A/ABC/A/A
A/A/A/A/ABC/A
A/A/A/A/A/ABC

Or does your structure vary quite a bit depending on the sequence and cirumstances?

Personally I don't recomend a structure that has any combination more than once.

I play mostly AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
C/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/C/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/C/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/C/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/C/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/C

It's also worth mentioning that every race may not have Bs or Cs.

Excellent, thank you.

Makes sense. Thanks, Andy.

Thanks for this and your post below.

I found that in one of the races at Belmont (you'll have to excuse me for not having particulars as I am at work) I really liked one horse and felt there were 3 that were very evenly matched below him, but with a shot. Would you make the one horse an "A" and the other 3 a "C" and play the rest of your ticket like your example above or is it not a good formula to have so many as a C and one as an A and you'd use those 3 as B's instead? (I think I've confused myself on this post)

It's really a lot more complicated that that. While you are making race by race decisions you are also making decisions based on your opinions in the other races. In a basic sense, if you really can't seperate the three " other " horses then they should all be either Bs or Cs. Now, as making them all Bs would quadruple the cost of your play, this is unlikely to be an option. So, they would most likely be Cs. And since you claim to have a strong opinion on one horse perhaps that horse is your best single. However, it's also a function of what you are investing, as if you had the As and Bs down to two 2s and 3 3s then using all three as Bs makes your main ticket $864 and if this fits into your bankroll it may be how you want to play. However, perhaps you would be happier adding one horse to three of the other races, and using only the A in the leg we are discussing. It's a question of relative importance as it relates to bankroll.

Thanks, this really is a very enjoyable contest you and Steve are putting together. While I don't have the sort of bankroll to play Pick 6's, it really is forcing me to pay more attention to betting structure and will hopefully carry over to the sort of bets I am making.

I really like that set up. Similar to what I tried to put together, although I upgraded a couple of C+'s to get them on Main Ticket.

Do you follow similar approach in pick4 sequences? Seems like a good way to invlove a real bobm or two without breaking the bank.

I don't follow it too much with Pick-4s, though I probably should, and the way I've been going lately I probably shouldn't be giving any advice whatsoever.

This discussion has, however, disrupted my heartbreak over seeing on the E Channel crawl that Keri Russell had a child. Yet another fantasy down the drain.

So you don't do anything different with your A horses from your B horses?

You were hoping to be her first born? :eek:

I phucked it up....you're right.

It is C/A/A/A/A/A
A/C/A/A/A/A
A/A/C/A/A/A
A/A/A/C/A/A
A/A/A/A/C/A
A/A/A/A/A/C

for the back-ups and AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB for the main ticket.

are the ML and early scratches up for Hollywood. I am at work and cant get to it (which is Redonkulous). Anyway, really interested in the ML of Alfred Kent in the 4th. Hoping to get at least 10-1.

ML 15-1 on youbet.com.

From Hollywood site:

Spring/Summer Meet – Day #43
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
First Post: 1:20 PM (PDT)

Cushion Track: Fast
Turf: Firm – Rail at 0 feet

$183,032 Pick Six Carryover
Races 3-8

$150,000 Guaranteed Pick Four
Presented by TVG
Races 5-8

PROGRAM CHANGES

Race 1:
No Program Changes

Race 2:
No Program Changes

Race 3:
No Program Changes

Race 4:
Scratch - #1a Warren’s Secret
Scratch - #11 Abandoneer
Scratch - #12 Big Ed
Scratch - #14 Peace Accord

Race 5:
Scratch - #1 Son Montuno
Scratch - #10 Conclave
Scratch - #15 River Rebel

Race 6:
No Program Changes

Race 7:
No Program Changes

Race 8:
No Program Changes

15-1 is fantastic....although I am thinking 8-1 at post is more likely. Big scratches, Abandoneer looked live.

Thanks alot STS.

It seems the upper limit on a realistic ticket would be $128, and preferably a lot less if you can single a couple of races. $128 would be AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB

This is absolutely the wrong mentality and specifically what this contest is trying to get away from.

ok, i'm here to learn

Seems like the way you grade has a lot to do with how your A,B,C structure pans out.

I find myself being very stingy with A's. This makes me not really comfortable limiting my cover tickets to just A's and C's. Ended up using B+'s as well.

Guess it is all relative as long as you are comfortable with the horses that end up on your ticket.

I agree with all of this.

Basically this whole idea was borne out of discussions I have with Byk about how hard it is to hit Pick-6s. For example, suppose you make a play for like $200 like Steve often does, and you have five of six, it is often easy to say that you could have had the one you missed on your ticket. OK, fine, but at what cost? You can't legitimately say that you used two in the race you missed and he would have been the third horse ( bringing the ticket to roughly $300 ) without seeing where else you would have added horses. If you had to add even only three other horses to also include that winner your ticket begins to approach $1200 or more.

Personally I am not putting a lot into Pick-6s lately so the first thing I do is try to make a play I am comfortable with. If that play is over $2000 I realize it is a reasonably tough one to hit, and while I may play for a couple hundred just in case I am randomly really " smart, I won't play for $600 because that is too much to throw away.

You cannot, and will not, hit Pick-6s playing like that and are better off not playing for such small amounts in general. If you are restricted by bankroll, find five friends and split a $600 investment. 16% of even five grand is a lot better than 100% of nothing.

I experienced this last night. After I posted all of my tickets (following the BTW structure), I had second thoughts on one of my C horses, I wanted to move him up to a B and onto the main ticket. I made the change and started to make the changes on the backup tickets (eliminating this horse as well as other C's to keep the ticket down) and it blew the $2,500 limit out of the water quickly.

Also picture me in a hotel room, with no caculator (didn't think to use the computer, but that is a whole different problem), calculating the ticket costs by hand on the back of the racing form. I gave up, left him as a C for contest purposes and left my tickets alone.

Good luck to everyone today. Thanks to Andy and Steve for dealing with us.

Great thread,

my thinking is I better not move onto pick 6's until I am really good with the pick 4 because it allows me to learn to make the plays at a much cheaper cost, and I am not even close to being there yet.

Was going to go to Churchill today, but too lazy, I think I'll stick home and watch the fun via computer and TV - here's hoping that somebody from Derby Trails hits one of them! Good luck to all.

How to differentiate between A B & Cs
 

I have read Crist's book and reread the multi-race chapters a few times. Every time I try to seperate fields into A / B / C / X categories I always seem to have too many A & B horse to make up playable tickets (for Pick 4s and 6s, that is why I seldom play the pick 6).

How do you guys define & differentiate your As from your Bs from your Cs. I understand that Xs are ones you feel have no shot a winning.

I usually have 2 or 3 As & the same amount of Bs. I think that could be beacuse I always used to play 3 horse exacta boxes and got in the habit of picking 3 horses every race.

I guess my take away from this exercise should be to narrow down my As to the one or maximum two horses that I feel have a REAL chance to win the race. Followed by Bs using them as the next most likely to win.

Thanks in advance for you comments.

You seperate As, Bs, and Cs by personal opinion and I guess relative chances of winning, relative versus their fields and the other races. It's hardly an exact science. Your ability to place horses will ultimately determine how successful you are.

Not to be stupid but how does my opinion in one race factor into my opinion in another race?

Are you implying that my opinion of a horse in race 2 has to be stronger than my opinion of a horse in race 4 when determining which of the two are classified as an A because if you include them both as As the ticket will grow exponentially?

To show how naive I am, I never even considered comparing the relative strength of horses in different races when classifying as A B or C. It adds a whole new dimension to the enigma.

Just when I thought I had a clue.

Thanks Andy.

To me, strength of opinions in different races is very relevant.

Ask yourself, which race do you feel it is more important to spend the most money in order to get through it.

I didn't have much time to cap but quickly went through the Churchill races and threw together a piece of paper with the six races across the top and just A, B, and C down the left side with a lot of space in between them. I then went through each race placing the number of the horse where I thought they belonged (well above A, between A and B, right on C, well below C, etc). I found having them all relatively mapped out in front of me was very helpful when trying to determine which horses to move up or down. Might be worth trying for some of the people looking for new ways to put together your ticket.

Playing the P4 in this manner (NOT the P6, whereas the objective is to merely survive), you can emphasize your value selections by having a double or triple through your overlaid selections.

Essentially, a 15/1 horse can make a P4, whereas by using him as an A over perhaps a "more likely" 3/1 winner whom everyone will have I'm willing to sacrifice having a moderate payoff P4 for $2 or $3 instead of $1 for the one time a month or quarter where that 15/1 gets home, I want that one for the full $2.

I guess you're correct. It is better to spend more money when you have less of an opinion just to get through that particular leg. Given that, you would probably have more As than in a race where you do have a strong opinion.

Good Point.

Thanks again.

I am interested in hearing some feedback regarding the following Pick 6 Wagering thoughts???

If you were to go 3 deep in all six races, then based upon $2 per combination, it would cost you 3x3x3x3x3x3x2 = $1428
To cut down on the cost of the ticket I have used a strategy of keying a top pick in each of three out of the first five legs…the thought process being that with a little luck and some decent handicapping three of my top selections in the first five legs will win…also I figure that if I am alive going into the last leg then I want to have multiple chances of making a score…so each ticket will have all three of my selections for the final leg
The tickets would look like this: (A= top selection, B & C are backup selections)
A/A/A/ABC/ABC/ABC ($54)
A/A/BC/A/ABC/ABC ($36)
A/A/BC/BC/A/ABC ($24)
A/BC/A/A/ABC/ABC ($36)
A/BC/A/BC/A/ABC ($24)
A/BC/BC/A/A/ABC ($24)
BC/A/A/A/ABC/ABC ($36)
BC/A/A/BC/A/ABC ($24)
BC/BC/A/A/A/ABC ($24)

Total cost for the 9 tickets is $282

• If my top picks win all 5 of the first five legs then I’m alive going into the final leg.
• If my top picks win any four of the first five legs and one of my backup selections wins the other leg then I’m alive going into the final leg.
• If my top picks win any three of the first five legs and one of my backup selections wins the other two legs then I’m alive going into the final leg.

I have hit a couple of Pic 6’s using this basic Strategy (one for 12k and another for 8k)
(I think I may have gone two deep in one race and four deep in another as a slight variation)

My hit was made on a backup tic
 

though I hit the pic 6 (factiously), I hit it on a backup... think this might make BTW's point and we've been all educated.......

Acknowledgements...
 

Have to take a minute to thank Andy for taking so much time this week to again moderate the P6 Carryover Symposium/Contest and all those that took part.. It was again a smashing success, and another example of the eagerness of DTers to share their interest and passion for the game here..

He'd never admit it publicly, but Andy is one of the games' top defenders of horseplayers, lobbying behind the scenes endlessly for tracks and the industry to 'do the right thing' by those that put their money through the windows. His willingness to share knowledge with others is legion, and his contributions here, and in association with DRF and YouBet, are invaluable.

Winners that haven't sent me their addreses, should do so, and I will get their prizes out to them! (Winners of slices of pie will need to wait until Toga to claim their confection..)

That doesn't work when your friends are even broker than you are..

So now YOU'RE God? Between you and GodOHGod, I can't tell you two apart anymore.