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-   -   What should Scav do? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13715)

Danzig 05-30-2007 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I have already paid all debt and things of that nature, I only have a car payment, which I am keeping to establish better credit. I am only willing to risk 2k into this system as it is progressive, and if I can't do it at 2k, I won't be able to do it at 10k which is where the progression stops. If I get this job tonight (2nd interview) I am going to take it as long as the money is there, if not, I am quitting in two weeks......

no wife, kids, responsibilities? other than to yourself of course....

do whatever you want! now's the time to do that.

Danzig 05-30-2007 07:33 PM

oh--but whatever you decide, do not tell the present boss to eff off. don't burn any bridges.

Scav 05-30-2007 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Basically what I was trying to say, but you did a better job of it. Hooves tells it like it is.

When your job sucks and you have the capability to do something about it, I think you should give it a try. This has absolutely NOTHING to do with last week's hit. All that did was give me the freedom to try something like this.

I see no reason why I shouldn't try it while I am finishing my accounting degree. I am guaranteed a job after I am done given the market place(if I need it), I have an 'out' to why I was unemployed, and I can enjoy a summer, and I can put to bed the possible notion if I can 'make' it or not....I see no reason, it isn't like I am not working at something, I have plenty of cash to last me a year, which then I could make the decision to get a real accounting job, or continue at what I am doing.....

No idea what I am going to do, but I am leading towards the boss getting a fat old GFY

The Indomitable DrugS 05-30-2007 11:00 PM

My vote is for E.....

Take it to Ann Landers.

infield_line 05-31-2007 05:19 AM

Scav... You're Young and You've Got Your Health...
 
What Do You Want With a Job???

Keep the job and get your degree..... living the way we all want to live, benefits, retirement savings represents a whole lot of exacta's you are committing to hit......

you might also consider the biases of future employers when they ask you what you did for a year.... "oh I lived off a monster pick 6 I hit at Hollywood"

create a strategy to get a career situation that gives you the flexibility to do the racing you love to do...IMHO

I/L

Scav 05-31-2007 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by infield_line
you might also consider the biases of future employers when they ask you what you did for a year.... "oh I lived off a monster pick 6 I hit at Hollywood"

Actually my out would be that I stopped working for a year to focus on my accounting degree......

I see everyone's point. Not really sure what I want to do but this job sucks and I finally have something to do about it :)

Cajungator26 05-31-2007 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Actually my out would be that I stopped working for a year to focus on my accounting degree......

I see everyone's point. Not really sure what I want to do but this job sucks and I finally have something to do about it :)

That depends on how smart you are with this money...

Personally, I'd probably keep my job (for the benefits) or get a new one that offers benefits AND pays for your school. Whatever you do, don't tell your boss to GFY... burning bridges is never a good thing.

SentToStud 05-31-2007 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
. Whatever you do, don't tell your boss to GFY... burning bridges is never a good thing.

lol. That's good advice. Just when you think the world is a big place, an old boss shows up at your new company as, guess what, your new boss. And, you possibly may need a 'neutral' or better reference from your old company. Save the GFYs for your friends.

Scav 05-31-2007 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
That depends on how smart you are with this money...

Personally, I'd probably keep my job (for the benefits) or get a new one that offers benefits AND pays for your school. Whatever you do, don't tell your boss to GFY... burning bridges is never a good thing.

I was telling a friend on PM yesterday that because of this hit, I have become smarter(so far). Some of you might not understand this but alot of my tilt sessions were 'chasing' based, and not day chasing but total amount chasing as far as debt. I have zero debt now, and the other night while playing Mountaineer, I actually STOPPED playing midway through a card, after I hit that 4th race hard. Now, in the last 14 years of wagering (yes, I started when I was 14), I have never stopped midway through a card, nothing was ever enough, it was either broke or enough to pay something in full.

SentToStud 05-31-2007 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I was telling a friend on PM yesterday that because of this hit, I have become smarter(so far). Some of you might not understand this but alot of my tilt sessions were 'chasing' based, and not day chasing but total amount chasing as far as debt. I have zero debt now, and the other night while playing Mountaineer, I actually STOPPED playing midway through a card, after I hit that 4th race hard. Now, in the last 14 years of wagering (yes, I started when I was 14), I have never stopped midway through a card, nothing was ever enough, it was either broke or enough to pay something in full.

Careful about the becoming smarter stuff.

There is zero correlation between intelligence and personal wealth.

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=3178567

Scav 05-31-2007 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
Careful about the becoming smarter stuff.

There is zero correlation between intelligence and personal wealth.

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=3178567

I always had the smartness, just didn't have the freedom. I agree that money makes you do stupid things, I have been pissing it away on some comedy stuff (A $10 cowboy hat is one of those things) but from a wagering perspective, I actually PULLED back for once, never did that at all. I was up like $700 and said "This is enough for today" and the computer closed. a great feeling actually

ArlJim78 05-31-2007 09:47 AM

This game has a way of bringing you back down to earth and making you feel pretty dumb. Be careful about making long term decisions when you're at the top of a wave.

SentToStud 05-31-2007 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
This game has a way of bringing you back down to earth and making you feel pretty dumb. Be careful about making long term decisions when you're at the top of a wave.

Along those lines, I have not made many meaningful long term decisions lately. The fact I am now losing at a slower rate than a month or two ago is, however, encouraging.

Dunbar 05-31-2007 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I was telling a friend on PM yesterday that because of this hit, I have become smarter(so far). Some of you might not understand this but alot of my tilt sessions were 'chasing' based, and not day chasing but total amount chasing as far as debt. I have zero debt now, and the other night while playing Mountaineer, I actually STOPPED playing midway through a card, after I hit that 4th race hard. Now, in the last 14 years of wagering (yes, I started when I was 14), I have never stopped midway through a card, nothing was ever enough, it was either broke or enough to pay something in full.

This does nothing to show me you are ready for the next step. Exactly the opposite, in fact. You stopped because you "hit that 4th race hard"? I don't even know if that means you won big or lost big, but either way it should not have been your sole criterion for stopping.

There are only two reasons an advantage capper should stop midway through a card:
1. You have already capped the rest of the card and you know you can expect no edge on any of the remaining races.
2. You are too tired or too upset to use good judgement.

Maybe you lost enough in the 4th at Mountaineer to upset you, in which case you did the right thing by stopping. But it's not a good sign that you can lose enough in a single race to put yourself on tilt.

Scoring a nice win is most definitely NOT a reason to stop for the night. Is the next day's play somehow part of a separate sequence? It's all one long play, not a bunch of separate days.

--Dunbar

Dunbar 05-31-2007 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I always had the smartness, just didn't have the freedom. I agree that money makes you do stupid things, I have been pissing it away on some comedy stuff (A $10 cowboy hat is one of those things) but from a wagering perspective, I actually PULLED back for once, never did that at all. I was up like $700 and said "This is enough for today" and the computer closed. a great feeling actually

Maybe a "great feeling", but the wrong move. There will be days when you lose $675 or lose $800. At the end of the year, if you have an edge then the more time you have put into capping and betting, the more money you will make. If you quit for the day every time you reach some arbitrary threshold, you are 'leaving money on the table'.

Instead of thinking in terms of how much you are up for the day, you should get in the habit of thinking in terms of where you are overall. Don't reset each day at zero. Don't waste mental energy worrying about whether you will finish ahead for that day.

--Dunbar

SentToStud 05-31-2007 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I always had the smartness, just didn't have the freedom. I agree that money makes you do stupid things, I have been pissing it away on some comedy stuff (A $10 cowboy hat is one of those things) but from a wagering perspective, I actually PULLED back for once, never did that at all. I was up like $700 and said "This is enough for today" and the computer closed. a great feeling actually

You won't go bust buying $10 hats. And having a few $$ probably doesn't bring you freedom though it certainly does bring the illusion of it and many other things. It's good that you backed off and slowed, at least a bit.

I played full-time for 12 months after I got d-sized and packaged out. I turned $30 into $49. That includes about $17 of rebates. It was really very, very difficult but I'm glad I did it. My only advice to someone trying it would be to 1. Use a rebate shop. 2. Stick to p-3 and p-4 pools at NYRA, CD or SoCal only (The Maryland track 3 and 4 takeouts are low, but they are miniscule pools (like $5k for a Pimlico p-3 pool -- lower than Mountaineer)). Play p-6's on double+ carryovers only. I have thought about this a fair amount and while other people certainly can succeed other ways, I'm convinced this is the only way it can be done.

ArlJim78 05-31-2007 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
This does nothing to show me you are ready for the next step. Exactly the opposite, in fact. You stopped because you "hit that 4th race hard"? I don't even know if that means you won big or lost big, but either way it should not have been your sole criterion for stopping.

There are only two reasons an advantage capper should stop midway through a card:
1. You have already capped the rest of the card and you know you can expect no edge on any of the remaining races.
2. You are too tired or too upset to use good judgement.

Maybe you lost enough in the 4th at Mountaineer to upset you, in which case you did the right thing by stopping. But it's not a good sign that you can lose enough in a single race to put yourself on tilt.

Scoring a nice win is most definitely NOT a reason to stop for the night. Is the next day's play somehow part of a separate sequence? It's all one long play, not a bunch of separate days.
--Dunbar

This is really true and it took me a long time to realize it. I agree with everything you wrote here.

jman5581 05-31-2007 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
This is really true and it took me a long time to realize it.


It did?

ArlJim78 05-31-2007 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman5581
It did?

Yes, I said it did. What is the point of your post?

jman5581 05-31-2007 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Yes, I said it did. What is the point of your post?


To quote the great poet...

"I speak a great infinite deal of nothing."

Sorry, as we were...

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-31-2007 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmfhb411
...you'll hear a lot of "why it can't be done" because it's easier for most of us to pile on with negatives.
I've toyed with trying to grind it out at the track. I believe I can do it, but I'm too selective when it comes to "dropping the hammer down" on my best angles. In between my biggest plays, all I do is take real small shots.
So going at it full-time doesn't fit me well.

Just tune out the naysayers and go for it.

im not a a naysayer im a friend and its my opinion that this game is tough and unless you are ready to make it a job on its own id not do it,,but thats me. first off youll need a bigger bank roll..take rent food car payment for 1 year off the top..what does that leave you with..15k.. you will need some great luck..but hey your young go for it..:D

hockey2315 05-31-2007 05:32 PM

Scav-

I think if you're gonna do it, which it seems like you're already set in your decision, you should do it sooner rather than later. I know you're an Arlington guy and now is definitely the time to play there. People are having a very tough time figuring out the surface and if you are able to concentrate and dedicate more time to figuring it out than others you could have a big edge.

gales0678 05-31-2007 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Lets play a game, see above

Scav - i would go for the accounting degree - take some of the 35k and set it aside for living expenses , play with the rest, you can then take the cpa test and be in a good position by the time you are 30-31, from there with dedication you can write your own ticket

The world always needs accountants , that will never change, good luck to you.

I would take some $$$ and put it to work in the mkt, get yourself a roth ira, great for young people , the gov't has created an incentive to fund these things , earnings are tax free if you leave the $$$ in there for a certain # of years, and the withdrawls would be tax -free when you are in retirement age---if you can do well at the track the mkt s/b a piece of cake for you

AeWingnut 05-31-2007 07:04 PM

My uncle managed to live off playing the horses for a little more than a year. Then as all gambling stories - it ends in tragedy
he put every penny on a horse - horse wins
then the INQUIRY lights up

back to work

skippy3481 05-31-2007 07:30 PM

Gales i think that is great advice. Although roth dollars are taxed going in not coming out as opposed to the traditional 401k where it is opposite. Scavs, my best advice, do what makes you happy. Personally if i was in your position, I would take a stab at it. 50 Years from now would you rather look back and say well i tried and this is the outcome or say "i wonder if...." I would def not tell your boss to gfy. Take a little time off, study more and throw some time into the races.

gales0678 05-31-2007 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481
Gales i think that is great advice. Although roth dollars are taxed going in not coming out as opposed to the traditional 401k where it is opposite. Scavs, my best advice, do what makes you happy. Personally if i was in your position, I would take a stab at it. 50 Years from now would you rather look back and say well i tried and this is the outcome or say "i wonder if...." I would def not tell your boss to gfy. Take a little time off, study more and throw some time into the races.

I think at Scavs age the roth is more ideal than a regular ira, if he can put 4k in a year for the next 10 years and invest wisely when he gets 59.5 he can withdraw the $ (contributions and gains) tax free. With the ira he is taxed at ordinary income upon withdrawl. I think the roth is a great product for young people, co's are now offering the roth 401k at work. If you can be in the mkt for 30+ years , i believe the roth is a no brainer, assuming the dems don't change the tax law on it

skippy3481 05-31-2007 09:36 PM

Oh i agree gales, sorry i was just clarifying your point. I agree the roth being a much better value with market age. But alot of people just hear retirement account or 401k or roth and think its just diffrent names for the same thing. Just trying to add my two cents well maybe 1.5 cents since i did capitalize off your remarks.


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