This Toby Turrell needs to shut the **** up about Warren's Devonlane.

FYI, Nakatini is now named as rider

My pathetic stab
 

R4 makes this a crapshoot - Can't see chasing this with a huge bankroll only to get knocked out in the 2nd leg...That said, here goes -


R3) 8 Surf Town will take a lot of money, but stepping up from Mdn 32 out of the ice cold O'neil barn and a fair chance to get caught wide from the outside post in addition to seeing winners for the first time leaves him off my ticket. Not crazy about 1st turfers off the cush here (no descernable turf ped), so leave 2,3,4 with him. The 6 Casual Thunder has proved he's outclassed at this level; the trainer change may help but not enough to make a case to use him.

Like the way the 7 is coming in, 3rd off and from Petionville, and will probably single him.

R4) Impossible. Going to single the 5 Skipper Mike, as he appears to be the tallest pygmie, but may get temped to add the 3 Steel Kitten with Paauch 23% firsters

R5) Another tough one...Like to go 5 deep here, but think I'm going to chase some value..the 8 Bernsconi will get a lot of attention at the window, but don't care for the way the pace appears to be setting up for him - may be too much to close into - Like the 4 Robbos Courage 2nd off from Mr. Greeley shouldn't have a bit of trouble going to the weeds - coming off a career beyer, a bullet work second back, and Nak/Dollase 22% for the meet.

R6) If I get through 3 singles :eek: I can afford to open the ticket up...Going to use 4 horses here; The coupled entry for the 1a, the 5,8 and 10. If the 1a is scratched, I'll leave off and add the 3 in race 4.

R7) The race that knocks 90% of the tickets out as Idiot Proof is surely a single play here and is fairly vunerable back in allowance company. Going with the 1 Pick Vic ( Sadler 28% cush) and the 6 Shem (Gallagher 29% turf/cush)

R8) Cal Breds - meh.....The 7 Tina Ballerina apparently likes the poly, and is in form off a win against same last out, the 10 Jimmy Pong showed some signs of life over the surface as well, and will use the 5 O Bee Naki on the drop in class (Periban 31% 2nd off layoff)

EDIT POST SCRATCHES and second guessing....

I'm adding Oneil's firster in the 4th...gut feeling
I'm also spreading in the 5th rather than the 6th as it looks much tougher
Also going full out chicken sh!t and adding Idiot Proof in the 7th...

7
5,10
2,4,5
1e
1,4,6
5,7

1x2x3x1x3x2 = 36x2 = $72.00

Also playing:

7/6/4/1/1,6/7 = $4
6/5/5/1/4/5 = $2
6/6/2/8,10/2/7 = $4

Let's get this thing!

Couple of horses
 

Not gonna put an actual ticket up due to being crazy and thinking it will jinx me BUT here are a couple horses that I like tomorrow and reasons why

Race 3: #2 Duty Roster (6/1 ML)- Not sure if he can win but Lewis has some great first turf and dirt to turf, and the horse is bred to route, might relish the distance

Race 4: #6 Warren's Devonlane (12/1 ML no shot at this ML)- Gryder named and then Nakatini just finds his way on the horse, that alone makes me want to single him, but can not do. Wide open affair

Race 5: #1 Unusual Suspect (7/2 ML)- This horse is a miler and closed into a 47.2 split in California, if this were Belmont or Arlington I would say that is normal, but not for California, positive jock change

Race 8: #5 O Bee Naki (7/2 ML) - This is where TG is just great. Everytime this horse has touched the cushion track, he has run good numbers, look at the allowance races back in November and December. Mig gets aboard for the class dropper. SOLID play IMO but still can't single

put a ticket up..pooty tang

Leg 1 - R3 - Alw 40s Turf

#6 Casual Thunder - 2nd start for Canani. Gelding has been knocking on the door at this level.
#8 Surf Town - Imporved a ton on the lawn and now resides in always hot O'Neill barn.

Leg 2 - R4 - MD 40K 2yr old Fillies

#6 Warren's Devonlane - Nak seems fit to hop aboard and the 1st time lasix make her attractive as well.
#5 Skipper Mike - Adds the hood after 2nd place finish in debut.
#9 Clever Lady - Sheds some weight with hot jock Talamo. Look for improvement with the blinkers.

Leg 3 - R5 - Alw 51KN1X Turf

#4 Robbos Courage - Dollace knows how to get them ready for their 1st time on the turf.
#1 Unusal Suspect - 2nd in the G3 Generous and making 2nd start of the year. Major player here.
#8 Bernasconi - Decent U.S. debut and could take another step up right into the winner's circle.
#5 Yankee Bay - Has improved BSF wise with every start and always dangerous on the grass.
#2 Tycoon Doby - Paddy/Solis 21% together. Nice effort in first start over the lawn.

Leg 4 - R6 - MD 32K

#8 Lotta Gamble - Huge drop in class for the son of Point Given. Shedding 9lbs doesn't hurt either for the Baffert trainee.
#4 Dennybuck - Spawr always solid off the bench.
#1A Headcoach - Blinks come off after failing as the favorite in last. Drops to lowest level yet.
#1 For Duty - Bullet blowout on Sat and should enjoy the extra real estate.

Leg 5 - R7 - Alw 49N1X

#4 Idoit Proof - Speedster should enjoy cutback in what should be his race to lose.

Leg 6 - R8 - Clm 10K statebreds

#2 Gotta Go Gal - Lost all chance at the break in last. Should be a handful versus these.
#9 Sexy Operator - Chop Chop looking for the lead as the bell rings and hopes to chop has way to the finish line.
#3 Star Quality - Consistent type is at her best distance.
#4 Lupita'sluckyangel - Looking for the pace setters to give way for her late kick.

The Play - $2 PK6 - 6 8 with 5 6 9 with 1 2 4 5 8 with 1 4 8 with 4 with 2 3 4 9 = $720

I'm going to play this ticket with 5 partners = $120 a piece

Good Racing Luck

A few (random) questions

Why does everyone love surf town...decent horse but come on...Court is up, and that tells me something about the private purchase. Maybe I am crazy, he is working well now that he is in O'neills barn. 2 horses have run a single digit TG number on the turf, the 1 and 6.

Anyone else gonna use Our Lear Jet at 30-1? I hope I get every bit of the 112-1 he was last time. R-E-A-C-H but what the hell, what a bad race. Last race at 6f wasnt all that bad...

For those that were watching the tvg special, got the feeling Scat Theif is gonna run much much better then the crazy cajun is admitting to? I am sure it is a prep, and he does want longer...but 1st time gelding on this crazy bastard is gonna make a big difference.

Again, regarding the tvg special, did you see that crazy leg action on Gotta go Gal? WOW..but my question is if she has been that jacked up and running those figs what makes you think she cant use that chicken wing action to win against this group? Star Quality looks good too.

Bogey just put me onto Tycoon Doby, watch the replay of that race of his on the lawn. Looks like a possible monster...

yes, his dirt sprint figs are the same as Robbos but he has a much better turf pedigree and a win over the surface at approx the same dist. Knighthood should move up a ton on the turf as well. This is one tough race.

Easy with Knighthood, not with Gryder on him...Adding Tycoon has f'd up everything I had planned as far as the ticket, driving me nuts for the last 90 minutes

Knighthood is a reach, but Espinoza would be on if he was able....not crazy about him, just a horse that could blow things wide open. His Damn has dropped some good turf runners. Another note, there is no reason (based on pp's) Knighthood should of been 7-1 and Robbo at 5-1 in their last race. There was some talk....

My single appears to be Surf Town in leg A. The horse is the only one in that group that has room for improvement. Casual Thunder might be the worse m/l fav on the card. So I will take my chances with Surf Town. The leg I am going deep in is Leg C. I am leaning towards starting the pick 6 off with single single.

Thank you very much Root for causing even more problems now

Where is Espinoza, he get days?

Hey Scavs - what do you think about the Shem beating Idiot Proof in the 7th?

The Mike Smith off angle is always a positive. His last race was was a good workout as it seems two turns fits him best. Unusual Heat offsprings have run well on the weeds in the past. Unusual Suspect has shown he is a decent turf runner. I think he has a real good shot in here to hit the board and possibly win the race. The other horse who you might want to keep an eye on in here is #8 Bernasconi. His last race was his first around two turns and the first in the US. He raced on par with Silent Soul until the stretch when Silent Soul took the outside path and got up for the win. Silent Soul came back to run a well in finishing second in the Will Rogers. Young jock Joe Talamo seems like a good one. He had a ride aboard the colt so he should have a good idea when to push ob the gas to do. His post is a negative but if he's good enough that is an obstacle he will be able to overcome.

I think Unusual Suspect is the single in this race. For me it is 5 deep or a single. I am leaning towards singling the 1 horse.

Leave Talamo off your ticket in ANY leg at your own risk. . .

Surf Town crawled home in roughly :25 for his last quarter at Bay Meadows. He's coming back against winners now and he'll start off wide. You might be right but I think there are better singles elsewhere on the card.

I think Idiot Proof (home track, 45 day layoff, two nice 6f works) is gonna break 1:09, and there isn't a horse in here that can do that. It is also important that a horse like this has proven to run well fresh (see easy winner two back off the same type of layoff). While I won't argue with people using the 1 or 6 in this race, I just think that he will be allowed to go 44.8 or 45 and if that happens, the race is over. if they make him go 43.4-44.0 they will have a slim shot

While not posting a ticket, I will post the structure that I am using and where I might add horses if the early DD comes up 5-5

4x4(1)x3(1)x5x1x2(1)

(1) means I might add one in that location, only going to add one more horse if I add one so it will be in one of those locations

You are prob correct. I really would like to go 3 deep in the first leg. Using Behind The Magic, Rival Islands and Surf Town.

Makes good sense. I dont think there is any horse than can go with Idiot Proof.

Hey is there anyone that likes Kooky Kelly in the 4th? I mean she was caught 4 wide last time in the Skipper Mike race. I think with the improved post position here she'll win.

This is the ticket
 

If I were playing I’d go with a bigger ticket like this, I just don't see obvious places to single with strong conviction. Maybe Idiot Proof and cut the ticket in half. but I just don't trust a horse that looks to have trouble carrying his speed at SA, coming to cushion.

Race 3
3 Our Partner
6 Casual Thunder
7 Rival Islands

Race 4 – going wide enough to snag the winner-anybodies guess here how they run
2- Kooky Kelly
3- Steel Kitten
4- King City Kitty
5- Skipper Mike
6- Warrens Devonlane
7- Stitchit

Race 5 – I am not taken by Unusual Suspect like many are- has class from last year but don’t see any development, still running the same type of race, no turf experience, think this one is overbet and won’t win. Like fresher developing horses with more upside.
5- Yankee Bay
7- Grey Rover
8- Bernasconi

Race 6
4- Dennybuck
1A- Headcoach
10- Weft

Race 7 – I can’t single Idiot Proof because although fast does appear to have distance limitations and with no cushion race exp he may get caught.
4 – Idiot Proof
6 – Shem

Race 8 – Think the winner is one of two horses
3 – Star Quality
5 - O Bee Naki

Play 3 x 6 x 3 x 3 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $1,296

Yes Victor is serving 12 days.

Nakatani can't buy a winner now that he has Stevens for an agent.

Joe Talamo isn't all that great like people are talking. SoCal racing is just starving for a good Bug Boy and getting some decent horses to ride.

Here's my ticket....

Race 3 7,6
Race 4 2,5
Race 5 1,4,5
Race 6 1,8,10
Race 7 6
Race 8 3,10,5

option is whether or not to toss idiot proof in the 7th

Cheap play

7
2,5
1,4,5
1,8
6
3,5

Good Luck

Stevens got fired by Nak, he is now represented by the guy who represents Court. I expect him to catch fire somewhat soon.

Not the least bit excited about the sequence (but I am excited about the carry), so.....

R3
8 - Surf Town

R4
3 - Steel Kitten
4 - King City Kitty
6 - Warren's Devonlane

R5
2 - Tycoon Doby
3 - Knighthood
4 - Robbos Courage
8 - Bernasconi

R6 - been burned by too many Baffert droppers with speed finishing up the track lately
1A - Headcoach
9 - T.H. Praise
10 - Weft

R7
1 - Pick Vic
4 - Idiot Proof

R8
5 - O Bee Naki

1 x 3 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = $72 x $2 = $144

GL to all.

Chicken money...You should take the ticket you won and GO FOR THE GUSTO. $144....COME ON BALLA. Like your ticket, only horse I am not a fan of is Steel Kitten

Taking a shot and thinking about mixing it up with three tickets:

Ticket 1: 6,7 / 4,5 / 4,5,6,8 / 1 / 4,6 / 2,5,7
Ticket 2: 3,6,8 / 5 / 2,4,8 / 1 / 4,6 / 3,5
Ticket 3: 6 / 5,6 / 1,3,4 / 1,8 / 4 / 2,3,5,7,10

What? You reading the right PPs? Unusual Suspect won his turf debut at Del Mar last August. He's been a close 4th in two stakes on turf, and second in a G3 on this turf course. And he's an Unusual Heat, whose offspring move up enormously on turf. He had a sprint prep (with a slow early pace) coming off the layoff and is now ready for his best distance.

Saving the Go For The Gusto for Saratoga. I've been very good since April 28 and am trying to stay that way for 63 more days....

25yr old Bigs would be locked and loaded today. 43yr old Bigs is laying low because as he said in the original post, he's not feeling it, however, he did smile at being called Balla...

Off topic: LOVE Gasconade in Churchill's 9th today.

i must have been thinking about something else when i said no turf experience. I'm at work now and don't have pp's.

that said i still do not like him whatsoever in here. he'll have to beat me.

Race 5)

* Can someone please explain to me what im missing when i look at #8 Bernasconi? I have him as the 4th best horse in the race behind the 1-4-2 (Gallagher's other horse) but it seems as though the majority of the PK6 tickets i see have this horse 1st or 2nd. Was the race he came out of that tough and or was the competition tough?

-bt-

I'm with ya BT...there's plenty I'd like to use in this leg if the bankroll allowed it, and he's ain't one of 'em.

Edit; While we're on the topic...What with the sudden facination of Warrens Devonlane in the 4th? The 21.4 quarter? the Jock change?

4-6-7
3-6-10
7-8
1-4-6-8-10
4-6
3-5

Good luck to anyone playing, thats my ticket.

This is the ticket I came up with, although I will be knocking it down a bit still...

Race 3 : #1, #4, #6, #7
Race 4: #4, #5
Race 5: #1, #2, #4, #8
Race 6: #8, #10
Race 7: #1, #4
Race 8: #5

4 X 2 X 4 X 2 X 2 X 1 = 128 x 2 = $256.

Five us out in $200 for a total of $1000. We rated the races from hardest to easiest and then gave each horse a grade of A to F. These are our tickets

Ticket 1
8
4-5-8-910
1-4
1-4-5-8-9-10
4
3
$120

Ticket 2
1-8
5
1-4-8
1-4-5-8-9-10
4
3-5-10
$216

Ticket 3
1-3-6-7-8
4-5-8-9-10
1
1-4-5-10
4
3-5-9-10
$640

Inglewood Jack!!!

let's give this a stab

PK6

28
5 10
148
18
14
357 = $288

gl to all playing this PK6

-bt-

20mins out good luck dters.....

I played two tickets:

1-2-3-6-7-8/2-4-5-6-9-10/8/1-4-8-10/4/5

7/5-9/1-3-4-8/1/1-4-6/3-5-10

I hope many derby trailers bring home the cash.

Paul