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-   -   Another easy work for Curlin (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13159)

The Indomitable DrugS 05-14-2007 03:40 PM

There's almost no way he runs worse than 3rd....the only way I can see that happen is if Borel gets him stopped cold right in the middle of that one big run he has, while trying to be sneak through.

ArlJim78 05-14-2007 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Yeah, I agree with most of it as well. The only way I would be shocked is if he was up the track. But I hope if he does run second or 3rd we don't see a thread or two about how overrated he is, or how he didn't have a perfect set up, because it would be wrong. Like you said, he has won the 2 biggest races for his generation so far and done it impressively.

I feel that so far he is clearly the leader of his generation. But his real impressive victories came with these rail skimming trips, that are in my opinion somewhat odd, and flattering.

I agree with DrugS in the sense that I would have more confidence in Street Sense if he would have on his resume a sparkling performance when having to race around the outside, a path which he is destined to take at some point. Perhaps on Saturday.

ArlJim78 05-14-2007 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I hear ya. And at what will be very low odds I'll just be rooting Saturday because I'd like to see him with a shot at the triple crown. I can't make a case to bet anyone else because as impressive as Hard Spun's Derby was, like I said he had a pretty good setup as well. And really the only race that he has looked not good in was a race where he didn't have a dream trip so he has plenty of question marks IMO.

I do not like Curlin at all. And can't see either Pletchers winning. I don't think King of the Roxy is fast enough and hope he goes back sprinting after this. I have no idea what to make of CQ other than I don't like him. I don't really get what they are doing with him. Pletcher thought he would be better off fresh for the Derby so he lays him off 8 weeks. Now he's bringing him back in 2 weeks after initially saying he wouldn't. I don't like it at all.

Me too, I'll be watching as a fan, hoping to see a nice race. Too many uncertainties for me to dive in with a monetary opinion.

blackthroatedwind 05-14-2007 04:05 PM

I am only sorry that DrugS can't be sitting with me for the Preakness, as I am right next to the owners, and I think it would only be fitting that DrugS should be there to give Mr. Tafel a hug right after the race should Street Sense win.

It's exactly the moment the public needs to supplant both the Nafzger/Genter moment and finally put the pain from last year's Preakness to rest.

cmorioles 05-14-2007 04:06 PM

That would bring me to tears.

ArlJim78 05-14-2007 04:09 PM

a genuine Hallmark moment, with DrugS filling in for Mrs. Genter.

SentToStud 05-14-2007 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
a genuine Hallmark moment, with DrugS filling in for Mrs. Genter.

I thought the youbet webcast host would be playing that part.

I, of course, will play the part of the winning horse itself.

Danzig 05-14-2007 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
a genuine Hallmark moment, with DrugS filling in for Mrs. Genter.

somehow, i'm thinking it won't be quite so heartwarming and endearing... i love you mr drugs just doesn't seem to have the same quality.;)

Danzig 05-14-2007 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
I thought the youbet webcast host would be playing that part.

I, of course, will play the part of the winning horse itself.

which begs the question, who gets to be the jock??

ArlJim78 05-14-2007 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
I thought the youbet webcast host would be playing that part.

I, of course, will play the part of the winning horse itself.

The front end maybe, I've been told I'm good at playing the horse's rear.

Danzig 05-14-2007 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I will. I need to drop a few pounds quick. But I will.

lol

go get with indomitable about his jack and coke thru a straw mix and whatever else he downed to produce his puke attack. bound to work.

Coach Pants 05-14-2007 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I will. I need to drop a few pounds quick. But I will.

I've got some laxatives that work wonders pre-race.

blackthroatedwind 05-14-2007 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
I thought the youbet webcast host would be playing that part.

I, of course, will play the part of the winning horse itself.


Who knew we could get into a fight about who would get to play the horse's azz?

SentToStud 05-14-2007 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Who knew we could get into a fight about who would get to play the horse's azz?

I'm not qualified to play anything but.

Hey it's Monday. I tossed a 4/5, used three of the four 30-1 shots on top and watched as the fourth won the race on top with others I used. I jumped out the window, fell two feet to the ground and now have a screen to fix.

The Indomitable DrugS 05-14-2007 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I am only sorry that DrugS can't be sitting with me for the Preakness, as I am right next to the owners, and I think it would only be fitting that DrugS should be there to give Mr. Tafel a hug right after the race should Street Sense win.

It's exactly the moment the public needs to supplant both the Nafzger/Genter moment and finally put the pain from last year's Preakness to rest.

I don't know about playing the role of Mrs. Genter....

But Borel and the connections of Street Sense should really be thankful that I wasn't cursed with your undersized build.

As, I can assure you, I'd get him stopped cold if he ever tried to skate inside of me and I had any horse. A great jockey I no doubt would have been.


blackthroatedwind 05-14-2007 04:54 PM

I assume that's you holding the horse.

sumitas 05-14-2007 04:55 PM

the bridgejumpers will unload on SS to show and i can obviously see why. if SS finishes out of the money there will be a huge show payoff. if he's on his game he'll win unless Hard Spun is even way better than I think he is.

blackthroatedwind 05-14-2007 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I highly doubt the bridgejumpers will unload on SS to show. He'll undoubtedly be a heavy favorite, but no bridgejumping.

Well, it beats his posts from last week.

the_fat_man 05-14-2007 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

TFM,

I think he needs a great trip, while the other two have poor trips, to have a chance. If they all get a fair shot, Curlin is no better than 3rd best.

If Hard Spun gets a rough trip, it is very unlikely that Street Sense will. If the Derby winner gets a rough trip, it most likely means Hard Spun is not. I think either of those beats Curlin even with moderate adversity. I'm not even convinced he is better than Sedgefield or King of the Roxy.

I don't see why anyone has to get a 'rough trip'. HS will probably not get the lead and will have to come from just off the pace. (Is this a rough trip for him? or maybe we could arrange for some DEAD speed types to 'chase' him -- no such luck this time.)

Curlin will sit a bit behind that one and SS will be towards the rear of the pack. HS and Curlin will go at it initially and then SS will put in his run. Of course, with Chelokee in the race (unless he's not going), SS will not have a clear rail run throughout the race. Would that make it a poor trip for him?

All I ask for is to get a clear run, after having good position around the track. I'm assuming Albarado can do that.

ateamstupid 05-14-2007 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I don't see why anyone has to get a 'rough trip'. HS will probably not get the lead and will have to come from just off the pace. (Is this a rough trip for him? or maybe we could arrange for some DEAD speed types to 'chase' him -- no such luck this time.)

Curlin will sit a bit behind that one and SS will be towards the rear of the pack. HS and Curlin will go at it initially and then SS will put in his run. Of course, with Chelokee in the race (unless he's not going), SS will not have a clear rail run throughout the race. Would that make it a poor trip for him?

All I ask for is to get a clear run, after having good position around the track. I'm assuming Albarado can do that.

Chelokee is unlikely to go in the Preakness.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18644477/

herkhorse 05-14-2007 05:39 PM

[quote=10 pnt move up]
Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

yea, he ran quick, but a talented front runner left alone on the lead, well the faster they go the better in my book...there is a large gap IMO in pressured pace and fast pace, to me Hard Spun set a fast pace.....you want to see a pressured pace, and it was fast as well, watch Holy Bull in the Travers in 94', he still won.


I certainly wasn't comparing HS to Holy Bull, but the trip he got in the derby was totally earned and not because of "things going his way".

outofthebox 05-14-2007 07:10 PM

Drugs, i am in the opinion that a horse who ran in the Derby really is in no need of a breeze between the Derby and the Preakness. I may be in the minority, but if a horse is breezed at all, let it be on the slow side rather than fast.
On the handicapping aspect of the race, i will wait untill posts are drawn, and see if the track will be fast for the race. I love betting against horses who i feel benefited from great trips to easy victories. As a racing fan i wouldn't be dissapointed if SS were to win. But if i do decide to be involved in betting the race i can assure you that i would be betting against SS. I can/t say iv'e made a living off betting against impressive Derby winners, but i have had a lot of luck betting on horses who i thought were compromised in the Derby from showing their true talent.
I am always looking for the next Louise Qutorze, or Gate Dancer, Hansel, or even throwing out a bad trip like Point Given got in the Derby to making a nice score in the Preakness. I wasn't totally sold on Curlin before the Derby, not because of his number of starts, but his lack of experience in facing adversity in a race. I think he now has that experience. I will now wait for the draw of the race, get a feel of how the race may shape up, and if the odds favor a nice bet on Curlin, i will not shy away from making a wager on him based on a slow breeze between the two races...

outofthebox 05-19-2007 05:38 PM

Congrats on your pick Drugs. I didnt bet to win but played the Million p/4.

pointman 05-19-2007 05:39 PM

Congrats Drugs, your analysis was right one. What a great race.

fpsoxfan 05-19-2007 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman
Congrats Drugs, your analysis was right one. What a great race.

Congrats? Let's see.... 2nd favorite in the Derby...wins the preakness at 3/1/....wow that's really stickin your neck on the line

pointman 05-19-2007 05:48 PM

many people had a lot to say about this horse. However, he proved himself today. The object is to find the best horse in the race, not about putting your neck on the line. Curlin was the best horse in the race today, he stumbled out the gate, raced in an uncomfortable position, overcame some greeness on the turn, and dug in to win it, I believe in a record time if I heard correctly. This is a very good racehorse and I don't believe we have seen the best of him yet, if we get to see it.

The Indomitable DrugS 05-19-2007 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Congrats? Let's see.... 2nd favorite in the Derby...wins the preakness at 3/1/....wow that's really stickin your neck on the line

Nevermind the fact I made a lot of money on the race,

But my opinion was that Street Sense would finish a hanging 2nd---and I detailed how I intended to bet the race, that being a backwheel exacta of Curlin and HS on top of SS.

Basically, it was a 6/1 shot.

The Indomitable DrugS 05-19-2007 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox
Congrats on your pick Drugs. I didnt bet to win but played the Million p/4.

Thanks---the race didn't exactly go how I wanted it to early on.

I thought Hard Spun was in a little trouble because the pace was very fast, and he was denied his preferred front-running tactics---meanwhile Curlin didn't have as much seperation on Street Sense as I wanted.

I was hoping Curlin could get four or five lengths seperation---and Street Sense would make that monster far turn move to get on ever terms--and obviously Curlin would win the stretch duel.

Street Sense really ran a spectacular race---and I never was certain Curlin could re-rally to catch him until the last jump.

Let's be fair though--as fabulous as SS ran this time out--he did hang through the lane.

The Indomitable DrugS 05-19-2007 06:31 PM

No---he ran a great race--no doubt about it.

To me--I liked his effort today a lot better than his performance in the KY Derby---but my handicapping is very slanted to trip oriented handicapping.

ArlJim78 05-19-2007 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Thanks---the race didn't exactly go how I wanted it to early on.

I thought Hard Spun was in a little trouble because the pace was very fast, and he was denied his preferred front-running tactics---meanwhile Curlin didn't have as much seperation on Street Sense as I wanted.

I was hoping Curlin could get four or five lengths seperation---and Street Sense would make that monster far turn move to get on ever terms--and obviously Curlin would win the stretch duel.

Street Sense really ran a spectacular race---and I never was certain Curlin could re-rally to catch him until the last jump.

Let's be fair though--as fabulous as SS ran this time out--he did hang through the lane.

not to quibble. but i don't think the hangar label applies when you run a race that fast. Don't shortchange Curlin, it was a HUGE effort to catch Street Sense after he lost position to him earlier in the stretch.
You were right on Curlin etc, but the reason wasn't because Street Sense is some big hanger thats needs his rail trip. I think you were right just because Curlin was the best horse today, but only by a very late nose.

The Indomitable DrugS 05-19-2007 06:35 PM

Street Sense blew by him on the far turn and Curlin was in "left-for-dead" fashion.

Of course SS hung---fast time or not. if they took bets on at the 3/16ths pole, Street Sense is 1/20 and Curlin is about 12/1.

ArlJim78 05-19-2007 06:46 PM

did he hang, or was he overtaken by a superior effort?

The Indomitable DrugS 05-19-2007 06:49 PM

By any trip handicappers terminology---he made an explosive far turn move, and didn't fully sustain it through the last 1/8th....the grinding Curlin wore him down.

Horses can run spectacularly and still hang.

ArlJim78 05-19-2007 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Probably a bit of both IMO.

probably yes. when i hear that he hung in a track record time it makes me crazy. as if there is some objective standard by which we can refer to and it tells us that if Street Sense wasn't a hanger he would have maintained his lead. If that was a hang job then he has hung in every single race he has ever raced in.
In fact the whole field hung other than Curlin.

They slowed down less than Curlin, thats it.


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