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-   -   Biggest gap between the best horse in a crop and the rest (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12314)

Indian Charlie 04-24-2007 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Aside from how bad the analogy was, the Lakers beat the Pistons on a horrendous late game call against Bill Lambeer in game six, and the fact that Isiah Thomas twisted his ankle in that same game, and was well below his game for the deciding game.


Wow. The only bad calls involving bill lambeer are the many no-calls that hack was allowed free passes on!

Thomas was a wussy, spelled with a p.

GPK 04-24-2007 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Wow. The only bad calls involving bill lambeer are the many no-calls that hack was allowed free passes on!

Thomas was a wussy, spelled with a p.


LOVED it when The Chief (Robert Parrish) starting throwing his fists like crazy and beat him down...

easy goer 04-24-2007 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
1978, Affirmed won the Derby by 1 1/2 lengths, the Preakness by a neck, and the Belmont by a head.

Maybe I'm not making any point at all. The one I am trying to make though is that in each of those instances, the one that needed to find that extra when it counted most, got it done.

But it is not a good analogy because no one would argue that Affirmed was head and shoulders above the rest of his crop including Alydar. On the contrary. It's great that he won the TC w/ Alydar breathing down his neck, but you cant say he was far superior, in fact he lost Alyday a few times before and after the TC.

Anyhow, interesting thread and interesting argument from KG. Entertaining reading in the lull before the derby.. :)

The Indomitable DrugS 04-24-2007 10:07 PM

FWIW,

John Henry was from the same crop as Affirmed and Alydar....but obviously vastly inferior as a 3yo.

philcski 04-24-2007 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
And, by the way, on the subject of this thread, it is preposterous to even suggest that horses that never raced past early June of their 3YO seasons ( and this includes Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex ) were distanced from their respective generations. Without knowing if they progressed, or how they stacked up against others in their generations who developed later, it is unfair to place them significantly ahead of their peers.

Take a look at Slew o' Gold, who obviously proved best of his generation, and tell me he was the best horse in early June when Caveat was kicking his azz in the Belmont.

Fair point, but in the case of Smarty Jones did anyone else from the class of '04 really go on to do anything to even warrant consideration?

I guess you could say the now-6yo Lava Man ended up being the best older horse as far as accomplishments go.

pgardn 04-24-2007 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Smarty Jones was so much better than everyone in that crop it was ridiculous.

The fact that he didn't win the Triple Crown proves how difficult it really is...

I so thoroughly agree. I was so skeptical about this guy. Damn I miss this horse. I hope all his progeny fail miserably. I wanted so badly to see him run again. Same with Bernardini. We all missed out on seeing some great athletic talent when these went to the shed. So I gotta hope all the offspring are horrible.

The Indomitable DrugS 04-24-2007 10:14 PM

Rock Hard Ten wore down Lava Man in the Malibu Stakes, won the Strub, beat both Saint Liam and Borrego in the Big Cap, and ended his career with a comfortable win over Haskell winner Roman Ruler and Choctaw Nation.

He wasn't bad.

If you want to use horses like AA and SJ--horses who never ran after the Belmont Stakes---than why not a horse like Risen Star? Who trip handicapers felt ran the best race of anyone in the Derby...and followed that up with a Preakness and Belmont Stakes sweep. Winning the Belmont by a city block.

10 pnt move up 04-25-2007 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Aside from how bad the analogy was, the Lakers beat the Pistons on a horrendous late game call against Bill Lambeer in game six, and the fact that Isiah Thomas twisted his ankle in that same game, and was well below his game for the deciding game.

.

i have a new found repsect for you......

The Indomitable DrugS 04-25-2007 01:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
i have a new found repsect for you......

True to form, the only word with more than five letters gets butchered by you.

Hopefully I'm getting chased and hunted down by a pack of rabid dogs in my dreams again tonight---as long as it doesn't involve the trio of Stephen A. Smith, Don Imus, and Blackthroatedwind providing color commentary for a WNBA game---I'll be pretty happy.

Indian Charlie 04-25-2007 03:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
True to form, the only word with more than five letters gets butchered by you.

Hopefully I'm getting chased and hunted down by a pack of rabid dogs in my dreams again tonight---as long as it doesn't involve the trio of Stephen A. Smith, Don Imus, and Blackthroatedwind providing color commentary for a WNBA game---I'll be pretty happy.

Ha! That's kinda funny, coming from the guy who when he first started posting on message boards could barely spell his name right!

You've also tamed your posts down quite a bit. I wonder if being nicer in your posts is a side effect of proper spelling?

As for your dreams tonight, what about getting chased down by a latex glove wielding pip?

Riot 04-25-2007 04:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Now, I'm not saying that Afleet Alex is the best horse of the last 3 decades, but can anyone find an example of a horse that is that much better than the next best horse in their crop, compared to alex vs the rest of his junky crop?

Ruffian.

miraja2 04-25-2007 06:05 AM

Limiting it to 3yos in the last 30 years....I would say it comes down to two horses.
Spectacular Bid.
Point Given.
They both accomplished a great deal in their 3yo campaigns and neither had any truly outstanding competition in their crops.
As several have already pointed out, it is important to distinguish this question from one which asks simply..."Who was the best horse?" I think Sunday Silence was better than Point Given, and I think Affirmed was better than Spectacular Bid (I know I'm really in the minority on that one) but neither Sunday Silence nor Affirmed could be said to have dominated their competition like SB and PG did.
As for Afleet Alex, I think he certeinly could have been in this discussion as I feel that if he had continued to race he would have probably defeated Flower Alley in the Jim Dandy/Travers. Of course.....we will never know that, so I don't think it makes sense to compare him to horses like Point Given and Spectacular Bid that went on to fall success.

Pedigree Ann 04-26-2007 08:49 AM

[quote=King Glorious]I always felt that AP Indy was better but not much better than Bertrando. And I know how much better than Bertrando Arazi was.QUOTE]

ONLY at 2! Arazi was far more mature at 2 than any of the US 2yos, which is why he could handle them so easily at Churchill. But he didn't grow from 2 to 3, he had in effect peaked at 2, and when it came to the classics, he was out of his depth. While A P Indy, Bertrando, et. al. continued to grow and mature and improve as the year went on.

philcski 04-26-2007 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Rock Hard Ten wore down Lava Man in the Malibu Stakes, won the Strub, beat both Saint Liam and Borrego in the Big Cap, and ended his career with a comfortable win over Haskell winner Roman Ruler and Choctaw Nation.

He wasn't bad.

If you want to use horses like AA and SJ--horses who never ran after the Belmont Stakes---than why not a horse like Risen Star? Who trip handicapers felt ran the best race of anyone in the Derby...and followed that up with a Preakness and Belmont Stakes sweep. Winning the Belmont by a city block.

He's absolutely the #2 from the crop, and SJ destroyed him twice. 'Nuff said.

What a stunning animal as well. Lane's End is pretty good about showing their stallions, he is an absolute beast- one of the largest thoroughbreds I have ever seen.

ARyan 04-26-2007 09:23 AM

I am still perplexed by the Bellemy Road comment....

However...I would say Alex and Point Given are pretty good picks.

Pedigree Ann 04-26-2007 09:51 AM

[quote=easy goer]It's great that he won the TC w/ Alydar breathing down his neck, but you cant say he was far superior, in fact he lost Alyday a few times before and after the TC.
[quote]

Wrong. Lost to him only as a 2yo. Beat him in the Travers but was DQ'd. Always finished ahead of Alydar as a 3yo.

Cannon Shell 04-26-2007 01:21 PM

discreet cat

ARyan 04-26-2007 02:24 PM

I want to add to my list....


Brother Derek
Peace Rules

easy goer 04-26-2007 02:47 PM

[quote=Pedigree Ann][quote=easy goer]It's great that he won the TC w/ Alydar breathing down his neck, but you cant say he was far superior, in fact he lost Alyday a few times before and after the TC.
Quote:


Wrong. Lost to him only as a 2yo. Beat him in the Travers but was DQ'd. Always finished ahead of Alydar as a 3yo.
Well okay but does that really change the argument that Affirmed was not that dominant over Alydar?

blackthroatedwind 04-26-2007 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer

Well okay but does that really change the argument that Affirmed was not that dominant over Alydar?

No, of course not, and you're right. Plus, considering what happened in the Travers, AFTER the TC races, one could EASILY argue that Alydar was best that day.

King Glorious 04-27-2007 12:53 PM

[quote=Pedigree Ann]
Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I always felt that AP Indy was better but not much better than Bertrando. And I know how much better than Bertrando Arazi was.QUOTE]

ONLY at 2! Arazi was far more mature at 2 than any of the US 2yos, which is why he could handle them so easily at Churchill. But he didn't grow from 2 to 3, he had in effect peaked at 2, and when it came to the classics, he was out of his depth. While A P Indy, Bertrando, et. al. continued to grow and mature and improve as the year went on.

Can't agree. Everyone that I know that saw Arazi run in the Derby as a 3yo saw him do the same thing in that race that he did in the BC. He made the same move on the backstretch to come from last (or very close to it) to hit the front of the field. He was just undertrained because of his injuries and stupid planning. But he was still just as good.

Bold Reasoning 04-27-2007 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Swale?

He had Dr. Carter, Devil's Bag, Slew o' Gold and even Time for a Change.

I just walked into this discussion, but wasn't Slew O' Gold born a year before Swale?:confused:

miraja2 04-27-2007 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
But he was still just as good.

Actually I think this was Ann's exact point. He was still "just as good," while the others had improved

King Glorious 04-27-2007 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Actually I think this was Ann's exact point. He was still "just as good," while the others had improved

Perhaps they had. But the question I have is did they improve enough to reach where Arazi was? I mean, next year, Smush Parker could improve for the Lakers. Still won't make him as good as Kobe Bryant though. I thought Arazi was miles better than anything in his class as a 2yo. Maybe they had cut that distance to a mile by the summer of their 3yo season.

blackthroatedwind 04-27-2007 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning
I just walked into this discussion, but wasn't Slew O' Gold born a year before Swale?:confused:

Yes. I realized this later.

parsixfarms 04-27-2007 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Maybe they had cut that distance to a mile by the summer of their 3yo season.

And by the fall, he was miles behind at least three other members of his crop: Lure and Paradise Creek, who beat him in the Breeders' Cup Mile, and AP Indy who won the Breeders Cup Classic.

King Glorious 04-27-2007 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
And by the fall, he was miles behind at least three other members of his crop: Lure and Paradise Creek, who beat him in the Breeders' Cup Mile, and AP Indy who won the Breeders Cup Classic.

As I said earlier, I thought we were mostly focosing on 3yo dirt routers. But concerning Arazi, by the fall, he was so messed up that it didn't matter anymore. Even at his best though, even if he was better than Lure and Paradise Creek, it wasn't by much. Those were two very good horses.

If we are going to go outside of the 3yo dirt routers, I would submit for inclusion the name of one Go for Wand.

Also, AP Indy's Classic was one of the worst, if not the worst edition of that race that I've seen. Running second was Pleasant Tap, a horse that never won a single two-turn stakes race in his career. He may have never won a two-turn race period, stakes or otherwise. Running third was Jolypha.......a French 3yo FILLY.....making her first start in this country and first start on dirt. That was a horrible, horrible race. Did I mention HORRIBLE?

philcski 04-27-2007 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
As I said earlier, I thought we were mostly focosing on 3yo dirt routers. But concerning Arazi, by the fall, he was so messed up that it didn't matter anymore. Even at his best though, even if he was better than Lure and Paradise Creek, it wasn't by much. Those were two very good horses.

If we are going to go outside of the 3yo dirt routers, I would submit for inclusion the name of one Go for Wand.

Also, AP Indy's Classic was one of the worst, if not the worst edition of that race that I've seen. Running second was Pleasant Tap, a horse that never won a single two-turn stakes race in his career. He may have never won a two-turn race period, stakes or otherwise. Running third was Jolypha.......a French 3yo FILLY.....making her first start in this country and first start on dirt. That was a horrible, horrible race. Did I mention HORRIBLE?

He won the JCGC and Suburban, but since they are one and a half turns I guess they don't technically count. :D He was a pretty damn good horse.

King Glorious 04-27-2007 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
He won the JCGC and Suburban, but since they are one and a half turns I guess they don't technically count. :D He was a pretty damn good horse.

He was a good horse. But consider that he had six stakes wins in his career:

JCGC and Suburban
Churchill Downs Hcp-7f
Malibu-7f
Commonwealth-7f
Sunny Slope-7f

In addition, he was second in the BC Sprint.

Lost EVERY single two-turn stakes race he ran in (Ky Derby, Lexington, Goodwood, SA Hcp, San Bernardino, BC Classic, Native Diver to name some). Point being that he excelled at one-turn races but was nowhere close to the same when it came to two-turns.

philcski 04-27-2007 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
He was a good horse. But consider that he had six stakes wins in his career:

JCGC and Suburban
Churchill Downs Hcp-7f
Malibu-7f
Commonwealth-7f
Sunny Slope-7f

In addition, he was second in the BC Sprint.

Lost EVERY single two-turn stakes race he ran in (Ky Derby, Lexington, Goodwood, SA Hcp, San Bernardino, BC Classic, Native Diver to name some). Point being that he excelled at one-turn races but was nowhere close to the same when it came to two-turns.

Right, but because a mile and a quarter at Bel isn't QUITE two turns is pretty unfair to say he couldn't go long.

parsixfarms 04-27-2007 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Also, AP Indy's Classic was one of the worst, if not the worst edition of that race that I've seen. Running second was Pleasant Tap, a horse that never won a single two-turn stakes race in his career. He may have never won a two-turn race period, stakes or otherwise. Running third was Jolypha.......a French 3yo FILLY.....making her first start in this country and first start on dirt. That was a horrible, horrible race. Did I mention HORRIBLE?

The field for that supposedly "horrible" race included Pleasant Tap, Thunder Rumble, Sultry Song, Strike the Gold, Defensive Play, Jolie's Halo, Marquetry and Twilight Agenda. You want really weak Classic fields, look at the one that Skip Away beat at Hollywood, or the Classic field defeated by Arcangues at Santa Anita in 1993 (where Bertrando also ran second).

I have unable to locate the chart for the 1991 Juvenile, but THAT was a weak field. If I remember correctly, Bertrando and Arazi were the only horses less than 10-1. Aside from Pine Bluff, I can't recall off the top of my head a single horse of consequence to emerge from that race.

King Glorious 04-27-2007 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
The field for that supposedly "horrible" race included Pleasant Tap, Thunder Rumble, Sultry Song, Strike the Gold, Defensive Play, Jolie's Halo, Marquetry and Twilight Agenda. You want really weak Classic fields, look at the one that Skip Away beat at Hollywood, or the Classic field defeated by Arcangues at Santa Anita in 1993 (where Bertrando also ran second).

I have unable to locate the chart for the 1991 Juvenile, but THAT was a weak field. If I remember correctly, Bertrando and Arazi were the only horses less than 10-1. Aside from Pine Bluff, I can't recall off the top of my head a single horse of consequence to emerge from that race.

Upon looking back, that field wasn't as bad on paper as I seemed to remember it. But they all ran like crap. They were all (except for AP and Pleasant Tap) beaten by a 3yo filly making her first dirt start and U.S debut.

From that Juvenile, Dance Floor was 7/2 and Tri to Watch was 5/1. U mentioned Pine Bluff. Dance Floor ran 2nd in the Florida Derby, 3rd in the Travers and Kentucky Derby, and won the Fountain of Youth. Agincourt won the Dwyer. Big Sur won the Southwest. That's about it. No argument from me that it was a very weak race. That 1992 crop of 3yo's was pretty bad overall though, IMO.

Slewbopper 04-27-2007 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Swale?

He had Dr. Carter, Devil's Bag, Slew o' Gold and even Time for a Change.

Slew O Gold was Slew's first crop. Swale was his second crop.

Slewbopper 04-27-2007 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I agree, but I think if Smarty had stuck around, he would've eaten alive those other 3-year-olds in his class all season long.

Well he didn't stick around so it is just another case of a hot house flower retiring


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