Perhaps, but it's just another angle that hasn't really been broken yet. Maybe coincidence...

My top pick is one of them. Eek!

Without having a minute to comb through pedigrees, who does have RAN this year?

Simply not true...Roman and his folks add new CDR's as they perform as stallions...there are many horses this year with impressive DP numbers.

The problem is getting worse and worse as new stallions aren't added. As slotdirt just pointed out a horse could easily win the Derby with less than 16 points and then later qualify when a new stallion is added. To use them at the time of the race doesn't work.

A few with RAN Curse
Chelokee
Great Hunter
Hard Spun
Sam P
Scat Daddy
Stormello
XChanger

Again...misinformation!
Only 5 horses had 16 or fewer points in DP at time of race, 3 had exactly 16. Stallions ARE made CDR's when they deserve it...same as always! Sunday Silence had 16 pts when he won...he has 36 now but is listed as having 16.

Strike the Gold broke the rule when he won with a 9.00 DI. This has since been changed for him to a 2.60. I'm going to Ocala on Wednesday to see a colt by Johannesburg out of a full sister to Strike the Gold. :cool:

For those that would like to see:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/c...rby_dosage.htm

Dr Roman's site...http://www.chef-de-race.com/

Give me a break, Storm Cat and AP Indy aren't even included! With their grandsons at stud it has gotten totally useless.

I can't decide which I want more....Street Sense to put to sleep the juvie jinx or this RAN curse thing....

What misinformation did I give? I said a horse could win the Derby with less than 16 dosage points and later when another stallion in their pedigree is added would have more than 16 dosage points and meet the criteria. That is 100% correct.

As far as I'm concerned, the RAN curse has been broken... I didn't toss Barbaro last year because of it, either. I just didn't see a better horse in the Derby last year. To me, he was the clear winner. I don't see that this year, unfortunately.

The RAN thing is so ludicrous that I'm not even going to bother arguing it. They might as well come up with a curse for horses that ran February 12th with blinkers off and first lasix not being able to win the Derby since it would be about as signficant.

No, Real Quiet had a DP = 13-2-7-0-0 when he won for 22 points, he now has 14-12-12-0-0.

Sorry, his index was over 4.00. Isn't that another barometer?

There is no real argument to it...despite the huge success that RAN has had as the sire line for Derby winners, he has had only one horse (Barbaro) win the Derby with the dam sire-line tracing to him...this despite the huge number of successful broodmare sires he's produced. I don't believe in curses...that's just the name given to this fact...but it is what it is! If you want to examine possible reasons, I refer to the research done regarding the LH+ theories and the theories that contend that a horse will get speed from sire and stamina from dam...if that is true, and I believe it is, then a "B" CDR like RAN would figure to be better suited in the sire line for distance racing.

I stopped using the 4.00/1.00 guidelines a few years ago, Dr Roman himself has stated that due to recent breeding practices, those numbers are relatively weak...I do look at the points in DP however.

Yes, but Giacomo's was a 4.33 and he won.

Here are this year's dual qualifiers:

Any Given Saturday
Circular Quay
Great Hunter
Liquidity
Nobiz
Scat Daddy
Stormello
Street Sense

Ditto, Somer.

A Dual Qualifier hasn't won since like 1997.

Yep... figured I'd post them while we were on the topic, though. I hope a dual qualifier wins this year. :cool:

Gee, I wonder who? :p

I have no earthly idea! Haha

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

Once again...the angles should be viewed as additional info, they don't replace handicapping! If you really like a horse, you should stick with him/her...just be aware of the angle for perspective (ie: if you think Curlin is a super horse then going against some of the strongest angles won't bother you...otherwise?)

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

I agree Joe...last years favorite (SNS) went off at just over 5-1 and I don't think enough horses this year have done much to seperate themselves to justify a 5-1 third choice.

and I don't know how you guys keep up with all this Dosage stuff. This game is hard enough as it is...the last thing I need is more #'s like those running through my head while watching replays and capping.

totally agree AJ. you are right on point. to continue on your point if I may Barbaro didn't "follow" any path last year did he??? geez, everyone wants to look at 4 or 5 criteria and presto---a derby winner. Isn't part of the fun using our heads and handicapping race shape, speed dynamics, post positions, past performances, trainer angles, etc, etc, etc...not just falling in love with "trends" or "followed paths." also, i am a firm believer that we will find the bluegrass and the tampa bay derby to be THE 2 key preps this year....from that you can see the exacta I like....BUT i may change my opinion as the day gets closer due to weather, workouts, etc....oh, wait a minute that might not be black and white enough......haha

JG...nevermind :confused:

Obviously.
It just doesn't seem that Java is using them in the way you suggest, and is rather using the 3-prep angle as rule rather than an "angle."
I think you and I somer, are saying the same thing.

I didn't read the whole thread, so I don't know if this is a joke....if it is...it's not funny....if it's not...you can't be serious.....Now I know I'm dating myself here, but I remember when I was a little guy watching the Dean Martin Celebrity roasts and there was a guy that played a drunk on those things named Foster Brooks....Well I'd rather he call the Derby than Battaglia.....hopefully there is someone on this board that knows who Foster Brooks was.....

a one note comedian.

carrot top for the 60's.

am i close?