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-   -   Whos 2nd-4th Derby Lock?? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12083)

hockey2315 04-16-2007 11:14 PM
Phil- What do you make of the way Hard Spun's connections have gone back and forth about going to the Derby, running in the Bluegrass, etc. . . ?

Scav 04-16-2007 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
He's got stamina top and bottom (Turkoman has one of the highest AWD's of American sires), with tactical speed. The distance isn't a concern, the trip is though- he doesn't quite have the tactical speed of say a Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex, and doesn't have quite the late kick of a Thunder Gulch, but runs very consistently and hasn't fired a bad race yet (I don't care what anyone says, that Arkansas race wasn't bad at all under an impossible scenario.) A very good chance to hit the board, even if his win odds may be slightly underlaid to his actual possibility of winning.

My second choice to key will likely be Street Sense if the public doesn't recognize his talents, and 3rd choice of CQ (the layoff is really driving me crazy because I think he may be the best "fit" of all the runners in the field to win if Pletcher can get him right.)
I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.

philcski 04-16-2007 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
Phil- What do you make of the way Hard Spun's connections have gone back and forth about going to the Derby, running in the Bluegrass, etc. . . ?
Makes me sick. Just run the f#@$*(@#king horse. Porter finally has a legitimate Derby contender and is doing his best to ruin it.

But I trust Jones. If he's ready, he'll go. If he isn't, he won't- this is a sharp trainer.

philcski 04-16-2007 11:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.
Pletcher WILL break through eventually. He's just got to talk to his mentor on how to have them ready on the big day... so far he's got 2 clunk up seconds and that's it, but his time will come. It took Lukas what, 7 years?

ateamstupid 04-16-2007 11:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.
If you think you're getting 12/1, I think you're nuts.

philcski 04-16-2007 11:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
If you think you're getting 12/1, I think you're nuts.
I'm guessing 7 or 8-1 on CQ unless there's a significant run on Curlin futures.

Scav 04-16-2007 11:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I'm guessing 7 or 8-1 on CQ unless there's a significant run on Curlin futures.
I think Curlin is going to get unloaded on and could be favored at 4/1, with that said, people will play SS and Scat Daddy, and the layoff will scare people off CQ, I think 10 or 12/1 is realistic

ateamstupid 04-16-2007 11:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I think Curlin is going to get unloaded on and could be favored at 4/1, with that said, people will play SS and Scat Daddy, and the layoff will scare people off CQ, I think 10 or 12/1 is realistic
The way I see it:

Curlin - 9/2
Street Sense - 11/2
Nobiz Like Shobiz - 7/1
Circular Quay - 8/1
Scat Daddy - 9/1

The word is out on Quay, and it has been for a long time. I remember I thought I was going to get 4/1 on him in the BC Juvy, but it didn't happen.

philcski 04-16-2007 11:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I think Curlin is going to get unloaded on and could be favored at 4/1, with that said, people will play SS and Scat Daddy, and the layoff will scare people off CQ, I think 10 or 12/1 is realistic
Curlin could go a tick lower given the fact that he went to 7/2 in the futures- I wouldn't bet him with my ex-girlfriend's money at that price!!!

I'm guessing the top 8 will be:
Curlin 7/2
SS 7/1
Nobiz 8/1
Circular Quay 10/1
Scat Daddy 10/1
Hard Spun 15/1
Tiago 18/1
Any Given Saturday 20/1

Cajungator26 04-16-2007 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Curlin could go a tick lower given the fact that he went to 7/2 in the futures- I wouldn't bet him with my ex-girlfriend's money at that price!!!

I'm guessing the top 8 will be:
Curlin 7/2
SS 7/1
Nobiz 8/1
Circular Quay 10/1
Scat Daddy 10/1
Hard Spun 15/1
Tiago 18/1
Any Given Saturday 20/1
Well if you won't, I will. :D (I kid.)

philcski 04-16-2007 11:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Well if you won't, I will. :D (I kid.)
Please, please, please do! :D

Scav 04-16-2007 11:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Curlin could go a tick lower given the fact that he went to 7/2 in the futures- I wouldn't bet him with my ex-girlfriend's money at that price!!!

I'm guessing the top 8 will be:
Curlin 7/2
SS 7/1
Nobiz 8/1
Circular Quay 10/1
Scat Daddy 10/1
Hard Spun 15/1
Tiago 18/1
Any Given Saturday 20/1
AGS will be lower then TIAGO, wise guy written all over him......but that looks right

whodey17 04-17-2007 12:40 AM
Here is what I think

1) Curling - 3 to 1
2) SS - 9/2
3) No Biz - 6 to 1
4) Hard Spun - 9 to 1
5) Quay - 11-1

easy goer 04-17-2007 01:54 AM
Phil's list looks pretty good but you've got to stick Dominican and Cowtown in there as well. Dominican is sure to take some as he has beaten SS so probably in the 10-1 range as well. Cowtown at...??

philcski 04-17-2007 09:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
AGS will be lower then TIAGO, wise guy written all over him......but that looks right
Agreed, AGS is this year's wiseguy horse, you could easily flip flop those. Depends on the Cali contingent's belief in the SA Derby winner.

I might have lowballed the odds a bit in a 20 horse field, actually; the 3rd favorite is usually 10-1ish...

Quote:
Originally Posted by easy goer
Phil's list looks pretty good but you've got to stick Dominican and Cowtown in there as well. Dominican is sure to take some as he has beaten SS so probably in the 10-1 range as well. Cowtown at...??
Dominican, yes. Should be in the 15 to 20-1 range. Cowtown? 30-1, minimum. Any less than 40-1 is a signficant underlay.

lemoncrush 04-17-2007 09:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Bad news is fine. I was telling GPK tonight that his turn of foot on the dirt is Afleet Alex like. If he is healthy (no wraps whatsoever unlike Bandini last year) I am all over him and not getting talked out of it
I posted after CQs second win last summer that he had afleet alex-like acceleration when he wanted to. I backed off on that comparison a bit, because it was hard to tell based on the 2-yos he was beating at the time.
He's my key horse in the derby, and love the fact that his work pattern is on track and JV signed on to ride.

I'm hoping Pletcher and JV are gearing him up for a big one.

slotdirt 04-17-2007 09:21 AM
I love CQ as much as the next guy and I'm certain he would have won the Wood if he had ran, but doesn't this eight week layoff thing bother anybody in the least? This isn't St. Liam and Pletcher isn't Dutrow.

Bigsmc 04-17-2007 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670
That's my Boy. Scavs you are awesome.

I somehow don't see you calling your financial advisor and telling him to free up $300 for your Derby wager though.

Scav 04-17-2007 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigsmc
That's my Boy. Scavs you are awesome.

I somehow don't see you calling your financial advisor and telling him to free up $300 for your Derby wager though.
Yep, just filted it from the checking account.

zippyneedsawin 04-17-2007 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by easy goer
Phil's list looks pretty good but you've got to stick Dominican and Cowtown in there as well. Dominican is sure to take some as he has beaten SS so probably in the 10-1 range as well. Cowtown at...??

I love how much opinions can vary about the derby, I think these two are total tosses in this race.

SCUDSBROTHER 04-17-2007 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
AGS will be lower then TIAGO, wise guy written all over him......but that looks right
Scavs,you are not in position to dog other people's price horses.Your problem is you get stuck on dog waste.You're not like a fly on dog waste(no sir.)
Flys atleast move................

Once you're on the pooh,you don't move.

Java Gold 04-17-2007 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I would say Zanjero should be used in exotics for sure. He's never been off the board (yet.)

Cajungator26...were did you find the Scat Daddy hat?

Java

brianwspencer 04-17-2007 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Gold
Cajungator26...were did you find the Scat Daddy hat?

Java
At the same place I found my Discreet Cat 2007 Dubai World Cup Champion T-shirt.

Java Gold 04-17-2007 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
At the same place I found my Discreet Cat 2007 Dubai World Cup Champion T-shirt.
Anyone who would have thought Discreet Cat was capable of winning the world cup with all that went wrong weeks before the race should be given a free tee shirt. The Cat is a tremendous horse that should never entered the starting gate that day.... but greed and money mix well..

Java OUT

brianwspencer 04-17-2007 02:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Gold
Anyone who would have thought Discreet Cat was capable of winning the world cup with all that went wrong weeks before the race should be given a free tee shirt. The Cat is a tremendous horse that should never entered the starting gate that day.... but greed and money mix well..

Java OUT
I know, just kidding around. Any jab at Jamie's horse is a good one.

SentToStud 04-17-2007 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Gold
Anyone who would have thought Discreet Cat was capable of winning the world cup with all that went wrong weeks before the race should be given a free tee shirt. The Cat is a tremendous horse that should never entered the starting gate that day.... but greed and money mix well..

Java OUT
at least you waited until rush hour was over to claim prescience n Discreet Cat. Still haven't run across one person who hasn't claimed to have dismissed the horse.

You still sticking with Cobalt Blue?

Cajungator26 04-17-2007 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Gold
Cajungator26...were did you find the Scat Daddy hat?

Java
http://www.horsehats.com/scat-daddy-horse-racing.html

Java Gold 04-17-2007 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Thanks a bunch Cajungator! Truly appreciate

Java

Cajungator26 04-17-2007 06:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Gold
Thanks a bunch Cajungator! Truly appreciate

Java
No problem. I ordered one. Couldn't help myself... love this colt. :o


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