Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not PG1985, buddy. Pointg5.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Whew!

That's a relief. I was going to have to speak to Byk about allowing you near sharp objects this summer.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's the grill burns I worry about.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, after cleaning up on Cowtown Cat in the Derby you won't be working there.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Your points of the perfect trips and easy leads are well taken, but at some point you have to credit the horse for taking advantage of those biases and setups.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Um, no I don't nor would I ever. I debit horses for being in positions to take advantage of track biases because those biases were what created false performances and thus those performances were worse than they appeared. Your post suggests the horse seemed to know there was a bias and was smart enough or good enough to thus take advantage of it. Hogwash. Perhaps the rider was, though in the Gotham it was mostly a factor of him drawing the best possible post, or the trainer was, as was possible in the Illinois Derby as all they had to do to get the fence was take advantage of the worst rider in America in Larry Melancon.

Simply put, the horse's performances, which aren't all that good on face value, are dramatically better than they should be due to circumstances relating to trip. With even a fair trip this horse would be easily three to five lengths worse in each race. He is SLOW and a complete non-factor in pretty much any race he now enters.

Originally Posted by stonegossard

If Cowtown Cat wins The Derby I will have a duncecap surgically attached to my head. He should be able to handle Teuflesberg....maybe even Love Dubai (if he makes the derby)...but thats about it.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't knock Love Dubai....DrugS was all over him in the Blue Grass.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Only because I'm a self-important wreck of a person do I feel obligated to trumpet my Ky Derby pick out once I've concluded who it will be.

This is the first time in a while that I've watched all the preps before concluding whom I want to bet on. That's because I really despise this crop from a talent standpoint. Here's a look back at all my other internet board Derby endorsements from this decade...

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st)
2001: Invisible Ink (2nd)
2002: Perfect Drift (3rd)
2003: Empire Maker (2nd)
2004: Rock Hard Ten (Didn't run)
2005: Giacomo (1st)
2006: Discreet Cat (Didn't run)

Any Given Saturday is this years lucky winner of my endorsement. Perhaps they will use that on his stallion catalog when he is retired. As for why.....

I understand this is not a horse of great talent...and one thing that isn't being talked about, is the incredible lack of heart this horse has. THREE TIMES he's had a top horse in his crop almost put away in a Graded Stake race, and in all three occasions, he let him off the hook.

* In the KY Jockey Club at age 2, he passed Tiz Wonderful, and had as much as a half length lead on him, with outside position, in the stretch. He lost.

* In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense skated up the rail on him, but this horse had more run left, and had NO BUSINESS not putting away that horse.

* In the Wood Memorial, off-the-far turn, he had Nobiz Like Shobiz, and stuck a head in front briefly...however, he just came off the steel and put up no fight through the stretch.

In a 20 horse field, at a 10 furlong distance, in a race which almost always features a fast early pace---being a faint-hearted grinding type of horse is a FAR greater advantage than it is under more tradition racing circumstances.

That's why I had no problems taking horses like Invisible Ink, Perfect Drift, Empire Maker, and Giacomo. While Barbaro won easily last year, a horse of NO ABILITY whatsoever named Steppenwolfer, was able to run 3rd in a race where he didn't get near as much setup as he would have in other Derby's.

Horses like Fusaichi Pegasus, Rock Hard Ten, and Discreet Cat just appeared to be irresistable talents to me...horses who I felt were cut out to be seriously great horses---which is why I took them inspite of the fact they don't exactly fit the profile of horse I'm biased too.

Any Given Saturday is the absolute right horse to bet in the Derby. I expect him to sit a mid-pack trip and be right there at the wire. If he doesn't win, I'm confident I know who the five or six right horses are to use with him in the exacta.

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm not surprised this is your selection; while you make some very convincing points on why he's a solid selection (and I would agree with you on them all) he's the classic "wiseguy" horse and that seems to be your goal here, to prove your "wiseguyness" with this choice. Good luck, I hope you're right because I'm sure I'll use him somewhere in my wagers.

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I tossed Point Determined last year from the tri but will be playing Any Given Saturday in the win spot this year.

Originally Posted by philcski

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You'd be wrong.....

Embarrassingly, I bet A. P. Warrior.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't knock Love Dubai....DrugS was all over him in the Blue Grass.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You'd be wrong.....

Embarrassingly, I bet A. P. Warrior.

Originally Posted by philcski

I stand corrected. I owe you $5.

I got sucked into using that bum in my exotics too. Yet another Cal horse that goes up in flames...

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You can add me to the guilty list for betting that nag.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't know.....what will you be wearing when he runs in the second half of the field?

Why should I always be the one accountable for bad opinions?

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

you have more of them than most?:eek:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a numbers game. I have my share of good opinions as well.

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

kinda like pletchers strategy in the derby? throw enough **** on the wall and some of it is going to stick

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Um, no I don't nor would I ever. I debit horses for being in positions to take advantage of track biases because those biases were what created false performances and thus those performances were worse than they appeared. Your post suggests the horse seemed to know there was a bias and was smart enough or good enough to thus take advantage of it. Hogwash. Perhaps the rider was, though in the Gotham it was mostly a factor of him drawing the best possible post, or the trainer was, as was possible in the Illinois Derby as all they had to do to get the fence was take advantage of the worst rider in America in Larry Melancon.

Simply put, the horse's performances, which aren't all that good on face value, are dramatically better than they should be due to circumstances relating to trip. With even a fair trip this horse would be easily three to five lengths worse in each race. He is SLOW and a complete non-factor in pretty much any race he now enters.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Only one piece of 'scat' is going to stick. See my avatar. LOL :D

Originally Posted by Pointg5

My post suggests no such thing, my post suggests that he's tactical enough to be where he needs to be, that's my point. You may have your fan club on here, but do not talk down to me. I think I made good points and stated them clearly, but you only want to interject your opinion of what I may be thinking. I don't know how someone can be so bold to throw out so many of this years contenders, they are all so closely grouped that I would listen to almost anyone's opinion on the Derby this year. Also, I don't know how you can say that he's so slow that he's only 5 points off the top Beyer for this year, that's not a huge disparity. He may very well lose the Derby and so will 19 other horses, but to say he won't win again is beyond me. Also, look at how slow some of the fractions have been this year. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could be out there loose with an easy lead.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

but at some point you have to credit the horse for taking advantage of those biases and setups.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all the following are YOUR words and they are what I answered...



As for your insults about my supposed " fan club " and " talking down to you "....so that's what it is? You have some problem with me and are interpreting my comments because of it? That's absurd and nothing about my response was " talking down to you ". I answered what YOU said.

I stated my opinion about Cowtown Cat. You don't agree....that's fine. But making personal remarks are completely unnecessary and the kind of crap that makes people not want to post here.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I do not have any problem with you, this is the 2nd time you have made remarks about something that I have posted that I believe are in bad taste and I don't really care for it.

You had to put your little spin in there about the horse being smart enough where to run, that was uncalled for

And me calling you out for your subtle slight is not going to get someone from not posting here, it's the slight that would cause them not to post.

You can't always chalk a horse up to winning, because of taking advantage of pace set ups, sometimes it's the talent of the horse to be adaptable enough to win under different scenarios, the horse has won at 4 different tracks.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

You can't always chalk a horse up to winning, because of taking advantage of pace set ups, sometimes it's the talent of the horse to be adaptable enough to win under different scenarios, the horse has won at 4 different tracks.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Good luck with Cowtown Cat in the Derby. Even in a year laced with such mediocrity....I can't see Cowtown Cat finishing in the money.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

But remember now, before you totally dismiss him, he has won at four different tracks.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

And at four different distances to boot! Why, he must be the second coming of Dr. Fager!

His two stake wins coming over the AQU Inner dirt track, and at Hawthorne. At the expense of such immortals as Wafi City and Reporting for Duty.

He's not for me!---interestingly enough, BRIS has him as the outright fastest horse on their figs coming into the Derby.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

But remember now, before you totally dismiss him, he has won at four different tracks.

Originally Posted by golfer

Point, his TG top before Hawthorne was a 4.