Well then why dont you tell us how differently the races were run? I have already pointed out some diferences in an effort to be fair, it is not like I am trying to sell people snake oil. I would welcome any further light you can shed.

See, I am confused right about now. You criticize my choice of races on the grounds they are different whereas you would have us believe KoRox is a valid comparison horse for a 10f derby. So which is it? Is the Hutcheson comparison a better one than the Ark/TB derby or were just blowing smoke up our ass?

If the two turn races are better comparison then perhaps you can shed more light on the distinctions?

I will go first and add a little more: it seems to me DK was running his own race in both cases, pace pressure probably did not compromise his final time by much. It also seems that SS was all out and Curlin was not. If anything Curlin might have increased his margin over DK. But since the original question had to do with Curlin being overrated I would think this would only help Curlin's case.

Also conditions must have been right for a track record in the TB derby but whatever they were they must have helped both DK and SS and AGS.

It's also possible that SS/ AGS final time was compromised by the intense stretch duel they waged. However they did set a track record (stakes record?) so how much could it have been? Perhaps you can shed some light on that issue. that might be a more constructive use of internet bandwidth rather than dropping vague hints that I am out of my mind.

Or perhaps you can find a better race that is a better comparison? Are there any races with common opponents?


SO which is it? Do you NOT think it's appropriate to compare similar horses in similar races?

Do you still feel the Hutch and CUrlin's maiden are a better races to compare?If so feel free to go on about that dont let me inhibit your style.

as I said just poor reading comprehension...you said "like" a lightly raced Lawyer Ron...not "lightly raced" like Lawyer Ron. My bad, which is as I said why I deleted it.

I know. Your reply was pretty tame to how I would reply if someone said Lawyer Ron was lightly raced. :D

I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.

The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

I think you make a fair point. But, Bernardini lost his first race, so he faced adversity, had some dirt kicked in his face, and felt the heat of a race. Curlin still hasn't done that.

I think my views on "pressure" in this case are somewhat irrelevant. "Pressure" on Derby Day is totally different than any other pressure in any other race. 20 horses, 160,000 people, the stampede to the first turn, the long home stretch. There is too much to overcome, in most cases. You need alot of things to break your way, and that includes having a horse that has faced adversity, can adapt and adjust and find a way. Curlin just hasn't seen that yet and if he faces it on Derby Day, without seeing it before, he is far less likely to be in a position to react in a positive manner as opposed to those who have. Does it totally rule him out? Of course not, but for me, he's a horse to round out the exotics with. I wasn't sold on Barbaro last year until I went back and watched the Florida Derby again a few times. He dug deep and toughed out a really gutty win from his post on that track. Real gutsy. So, come Derby Day, yeah there was traffic, yeah there was speed, but he was in a familiar position.

Again, especially at the price. He closed at 7-2 on the third installment of the future wager. 7-2!!!

as a general prop. probably the gutsy win. Because usually the gutsy win comes at the expense of another good horse and the easy win comes at the expense of chumps and tends to be overrated.

But it's hard to use generalities when you have to bet on an individual horse. If you were to read about these races 100 years from now you, and didnt know the outcome of the derby, you'd probably think Curlin was some flash in the pan who had ran against nobodies. And the best horses had run in FL.

Every time you apply generalities to a horse race you risk being undone by a horse that seems to defy it. Barbaro gunning from the 10 hole at GP. No one had won from that hole at two turns at the new park.

There's really no way to know for sure. Otherwise I guess the parimutual system would have gone broke years ago.

What I like about Curlin is he was 4 or 5 lengths back at the 1/2 mile call in both races at Oaklawn around two turns. That tells me he won't be affected one bit by a lightning pace should that occur or a slow pace or whatever is thrown out there. I don't hold the lack of starts at 2 against him...as people have said it didn't hurt Bernardini in the Preakness. He seems to be a very handy horse for the most part. He may fold like a lawn chair in the Derby, and I have no idea who will win the race, but I think he's the best horse going in. I've seen nothing from any other contender any better than what he's shown this year.

Agreed. Curlin's versatility is his biggest asset, I believe. Very similar to Bernardini in that aspect.

Your views on pressure may be irrelevant in "great scheme of things" but they might help us to better understand what we are talking about and what we think Curlins problems may be.

If we are saying Curlin may not get 10f if he is forced to run fast in the third quarter that is one thing. ANd perhaps we can look his PPs, or perhaps we can find similar horses, or similar pedigrees and go from there.

If we are talking psychological pressure that is another analysis. I tried to say that personally I dont but into much of it, so you know where I am coming from.

But you are talking about yet another type of pressure! The huge crowd. Does that really happen? It has happened to human performers. Dont know what the hell horses are thinking. Do we have examples of this? Hansel?? I dunno..

Who Barbaro? or Curlin. YOu are talking Curlin yes? Little bit confusing, meaning "especially". Especially what??

Another factor, in both races Curlin [edit: that should be Delightful Kiss] is described as making a mild or modest rally. But in OP he had to go wide, at TB I dont think he was very wide, prollly on the rail if memory serves...

Anyhow he lost ground around the turn so that may account for more beaten lengths. Still even with adjustment, how much difference can there be? the more you look at it, the more it seems Curlin is comparable to SS. At least in the sense of speed, psychologically who knows?

if you're talking Curlin he did not run at FG his first time was at GP. I am a little confused...

You really liked that movie? I watched it so long ago, but it just seemed soooo depressing, reallly I wanted to yell at everyone to wise up and go out and make their lives better. I wouldn't have made a very good therapist. :o

All I have to say is no horse has won the Derby without a start at two since like 1885. I hope the public makes Curlin the betting fave.

Shut up.



It's one of my all timers as well.

again?

Here you are darling:



Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.
The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

thank you my sweet...but I meant watching the movie again

Hardly a bold statement. Didn't he go sub 12 for the last furlong? I think someone would have to be on crack to think he could have gone faster.

:rolleyes:

Oh.










I know I watch my all time favs quite often.

=;>






The man was from Cleveland,too...

....don't ya know.

I like Curlin, but I sure wish he would have faced tougher horses to this point. Keep in mind in recent years I have not bet the undefeated horses on Derby day, feeling they hadn't been tested enough. I was wrong about SJ and Barbaro.

Maybe they were making their lives the best they could possibly be....for them.

You took it out of context ( I didn't feel a need to reprint the long post I was responding to ) in that the other poster had said Street Sense worked hard and Curlin wasn't full out ( or something like that ). I was disagreeing.

True, I just get very frusterated with situations like that knowing people who were/are similiar, if that makes any sense? Having a few years on me now may make a difference though to my appreciation of the movie.

What did you think of Lost in Translation and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind?

I'm going to go out on a limb that whatever poster said that never actually bothered to look at the fractions of the race and probably thought the same thing about Bernardini being able to go much faster if pressed prior to the BC Classic. That or they're on crack.

I like them both a lot....especially Eternal Sunshine. I like the fact that knowing everything they know, basically that their relationship is doomed, that they still decide to do it all over again.

I would agree with that. The old " he wasn't going all out " is almost universally wrong.

It really isn't hard to figure out either by looking at the fractions. If Curlin was eased through the wire and finished in 14 flat after putting away the field then he probably wasn't going all out. When the closing fractions are quite fast though it is pretty compelling evidence that the horse was all out. It just amazes me how many people use their visual interpretation to determine whether a horse was all out rather than the facts on the chart.

It is correct in my opinion to say that he couldn't have gone faster in any significant sense.

My question is does he need to?

Eternal Sunshine is probably one of my favorite movies.

It's one of my favorites from the last ten years for sure. I like it a lot more than I like Curlin.

Throat, what's your take on Street Sense's chances on May 5th after seeing his two preps?

I think he's one of the few horses that are likely to win the race. To be honest I have seen very little to get excited about from any of the horses heading into this Derby and very few horses coming into the race with sneaky good races. Sam P. is about the only horse in one of the preps ( SA Derby ) that probably would have won with a better ride....but I have a hard time thinking of him as that good. However, I will probably throw him in because he will be a huge price.

Getting back to Street Sense, maybe I'm somewhat biased because I have an attachment to him and I would love to see an end to the silly BC Juvie/Derby " jinx ", but I have seen nothing to deter me from thinking he is at least as good as any horses in this race.

I've got a side bet with Philski on this horse. I don't think he is necessarily good, but he is an over-achiever.

Yes... and I forgot who I took?? :o

I think you misinterpreted. Great movie, though.

I dont know if people are responding to something I wrote, I am just catching up this thread and not read it full.

I dont think I said that Curlin could go faster, I had to edit that post because I meant to say "Delightful Kiss" and not Curlin so maybe people read it before I edited it. All three horses seem to be going somewhere close to their limit.

Curlin, if I recall, was being hand ridden, which can be interpreted to mean he is capable of more although I doubt much more.

Sorry if I am responding to the wrong thing...

If your referring to me as the "other poster" I dont think I said this, and that post was edited a few min. later. If you read it the first time it could be confusing..