Right now I think Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense are the three best horses.
At this point though, handicapping the race is virtually impossible. You can't really handicap a race until you can visualize it, and in a 20 horse field, you can't visualize it until you know the post positions. There are a lot of horses this year that are pretty close in terms of ability. If one of them draws post 19 or 20, maybe you toss them.
We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.
I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

Curlin will go off as the favorite most likely. But if this years Derby was bet properly, I could see the favorite as being one of the longest prices of all time. I mean there are so many horses that could win this year. And what if Curlin draws like Brother Derek last year. The favorite could/should be 5 or 6 to 1.

If one picks among the following horses I dont see how one could be laughed at:

Street Sense
Curlin
AGS
Nobiz
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy
Hard Spun

and do we add Dominican to the list, what others? This is very open. I have to think Curlin and Street Sense will be very close as favorites given middle posts.

oops I read the post above saying somewhat the same thing except I am dubious of CQ.

Good job.

I wish he were still w/ Pitts too...alot easier to root for.

i'm with you on your picks just add anygivensat and i think you have the derby horse

I don't know if the betting public will make Curlin the favorite on race-day, for no other reason than the fact that he's only had three career starts under him....

You'll start to hear more and more of "No Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo, in 1882, has won the race without starting at age 2." the 125 year gap in that trend will be beaten to death in the press.

I realize Indian Charlie was the KY Derby favorite, with just four races under him---but, he did race at 2 (not that it means anything anyway) and was a really sensational raw talent. He made his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and toyed with a very strong field. Real Quiet, who missed the triple crown by a nose, was 2nd to him. Artax, who would win a championship sprinting the next year was a distant 3rd. Many of the also-rans improved their form in stakes next time out.

Indian Charlie's Santa Anita Beyer is still the highest ever published in the DRF in the history of that race...and his final time broke Affirmed's stakes record. As super as Curlin has been in all three starts, IC brought a bigger repute into the Derby.

I think Street Sense will be a very slight favorite in the end---and I agree with you...the favorite should be in the 7/2-to-5/1 range.

After watching the Arkansas Derby 3 times it is very evident Curlin is very talented and very untested. That was an easy trip for a very good horse. I personally have a hard time with any horse that has not been tested or had some trouble. But Curlin is so good, he runs with such ease and appears to be fully in control. Its so hard to assess a horse this good that has not been in a war or run into some trouble.

You may be right about Street Sense. However, I think his showing over Churchill already, will be what puts him over more than Curlin's lack of racing. What seems wacky to me is the world of previous outcomes:
if Street Sense had lost at Tampa by a nose, and won the Blue Grass by a nose (especially after the right sweep run in the stretch), I think he would be a clearer favorite as seen by the general public.

Since Steve Assmussen was the reason why I didn't cash my pick 3 and pick 4 ticket...and the pick 4 defeat was to a $60+ horse, I decided to track his phenomenal day at Oaklawn

Race 2 Squelch 1st
Race 3 Coach Que 2nd
Race 6 Colorado Jazz 1st
Race 7 Takedown 1st
Race 8 Brutal Attack 7th
Race 9 Cantallbechiefs 4th
Race 10 Nice Inheritance 2nd
Race 10 Cream Only 1st
Race 11 Curlin 1st

5/9 winners
5/8 races entered won

I hate to be skeptical of this achievement and I realize I made a mistake in my handicapping...but something about this just stinks.

PP...just accept that the racing world works in mysterious ways:rolleyes:

Yeah and Barry Bonds' head just doubled in size over years through holistic medicines. :D

Exactly why I can't cheer for Curlin. I would kind of like to root for him because he seems like a good colt, but if that means rooting for Asmussen, I think I'll pass.

the most impressive part of that race for me was, Curlin ran down DD in the top of the turn. how fast he closed those 2 lengths were the WOW factor for me.

Actually, the media never seems to make a big deal out of the angles and many betters scoff at them (which is why I find them useful). I think Curlin will be the post time favorite. The only angle that ever got a lot of media attention was dosage and while it remains useful (several angles involve DP numbers) the DI/CD parameters had to become less and less significant due to modern breeding practices. I think the Curlin bandwagon will grow by leaps and bounds between now and Derby day. I actually like the horse but not for the Derby, if they wait, he can become this year's Bernardini and maybe better...but I suspect he'll run in the Derby and disappoint!

But when Pletcher does it you boast about how good he is.

I did? Please provide a link. I want to see this one.

On May 5th a lot of people are going to wager on the Derby that don't follow racing. They are going to see an undefeated horse who has crushed his competition thus far. I'll be shocked if Curlin is not the favorite in this race.
Look at the Derby Futures if you believe I'm wrong.

Where it gets interesting is are his 3 races thus far enough to give him the foundation to win the Derby? Trainers are going lighter on their horses more than ever and this year is no different. Last weeks darling Nobiz might be an overlay here. Any Given Saturday will be at least 10-1 and with 4 weeks to prepared, and diffferent race tactics he could give Pletcher his first TC win.
There's a lot information and variables to ponder over the next 3 weeks. Good luck in figuring it out.

:confused:

If you'd read my post, you would've seen my point was that a sub-:12 final eighth isn't unheard of at Oaklawn, because of the slight decline in the stretch.

You could not have chosen a faster closer in the last 5 or 10 years upon which to make this comparison. I'm sorry I was unable to put that into words, the analogy was so off the mark my fingers froze and was only able to push the mouse with my nose onto one of those emoticons.

Those sure are good when you are out of words.

Afleet Alex is the fastest closer in the last 5-10 years? Hmmm.. Ghostzapper, Invasor, Pleasantly Perfect and others might have a little bit to say about that.

There was no "analogy" being made. I just wanted to point out that a below :12 final eighth is not unprecedented at Oaklawn like it is on most other dirt tracks.

And I typed all of that with my ear.

Easily will be the favorite on Derby day with all the hype he will be recieving. That being said, we have never had a BC Juvenile winner coming up to the Derby like Street Sense has been, Dare I say he has a shot at the TC this year, if he gets past the Derby the Preakness should be cake for him, and he has the lungs to go 12 panels.... :)

Just figured I would start that argument right now :)

I dont spend my time rehashing old threads. I apoligize if you took it personaly. What I was refering to was a post refering to how well Pletcher does on special days. Who started the thread I dont know, but several joined in on praising him. If you want to know who personally started the thread , Look it up. I dont make a post to make anyone look bad.Was just trying to try to point out how unfair we can be in knocking some and praising others for the same thing.

I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for Street Sense to win the Triple Crown.

Sorry buddy but you are just wrong here.
I started the thread about how many wins Pletcher was getting on Gulfstream's biggest days. My comment at that time was just this "Insane."
If you want to take that as "praising him" be my guest, but believe me that is not how it was intended at all. In fact NOBODY really "praised" him in the entire thread, and Pillow Pants didn't post a single thing on the thread.
So when you say to him "But when Pletcher does it you boast about how good he is" you are simply wrong.....if that was the thread you were talking about.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11462

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

I hope so.

and yet another track record that was set yesterday....

I'm thinking he can flirt with 20/1.

I mean, he's never even won a stake race in his life---and this will be a 20 horse field--where it's likely 8 of the 20 starters could be coming into the race off of either Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins....and that doesn't include probable post time favorite Street Sense.

I agree in theory about waiting until the actual race and then treating it as a relatively normal handicapping challenge regarding the pace/post position scenario, etc etc. I do respectfully disagree about the importance of discussing all of the "absolutes" ahead of time.

It is a rarity in horse racing to have so many horses pointing to one single race with a more or less defined path of how they must go to get there regarding graded earnings and performances leading up to it. I think these discussions are wildly vaulable and to suggest that they're irrelevant just because the race is three weeks away is like suggesting that we shouldn't talk about who we think will win the Super Bowl and why until next February when we actually know what two teams are in it.

He won the fabulous Sam F. Davis Stakes ;) Just kidding, I get what you mean. While I know it is sin to be thinking about the Derby field already I think AGS has shown an ability to run with the crops best so if the pieces fall together...

Plus if you're a big horse racing dork it makes for a lot of interesting reading with all of the coverage on TV and websites. ;)

well, since i never staked a claim to being a professional, i'll continue to discuss all the different aspects of the horses that are pointing to the derby, while still withholding (as most of us do) our final selection til the draw, etc.

but i'm sure it'll be ok. besides, isn't that part of the fun, part of the excitement leading to the derby? and i also enjoy reading things i may not have seen for myself--there's bound to be many points of view about the various races, i'd hate to wait til may 2 to read all of that, once the field is drawn!!

I have a feeling that Nobiz will be a lot closer to Derby favorite than people are expecting. You know the celebs will be pouring their money into him!

Actually, I forgot about that win.

The poor Michigan bred he beat got beat about 15 in the Tampa Derby, and 20 lengths as the favorite in a much smaller stake after that.

Oh this is all sooo true.




I agree the KDerby should be taken as just your ordinary 20 horse squamish race.

Simply apply squamish handicapping rules and there ya go!

I agree with you about this. I think it is fun and useful to talk about and analyze the abilities of the horses in the weeks before the Derby.
My only point was that I don't think it makes sense to determine what your wager will be until the horses have worked over the track, post positions have been drawn, etc. That doesn't mean it isn't fun to talk about!

And in applying these skills, we are to understand that you had War Emblem and Giacomo . . . no?

Evasive.


Incendinary.


Stupid.






Let's stop talking about the derby as if it made any sense.

'cause it don't.


That's why the wise apply the Squamish Method.







So shut up.

You're back, I'm pleased.

THAT's what really impressed me...and then he settled nicely and didn't fight for the pace. Curlin took COMMAND over that path early on. Tough and relaxed horse.