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declansharbor 04-13-2007 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day
I would be out of my mind ecstatic if we were to get such odds on him...I believe his style sets him up for a good chance to rope the front end in...

Scav 04-13-2007 08:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor
I would be out of my mind ecstatic if we were to get such odds on him...I believe his style sets him up for a good chance to rope the front end in...
I honestly don't see how people will 'focus' on him. What I would love people to watch is his gallop out in the Florida Derby. He was about 5 lengths in front right at the turn and just kept going. Now I know his breeding says no to 10f but as Andy says "I DON'T CARE WHAT HIS BREEDING IS"

To me, I want to see what Nakatini does, if Liquidity doesn't go, which I am hoping he doesn't, O'Neil and Nak are boys and if Nak gets him, HELLO MONEY for ALL that plays him

2Hot4TV 04-13-2007 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I honestly don't see how people will 'focus' on him. What I would love people to watch is his gallop out in the Florida Derby. He was about 5 lengths in front right at the turn and just kept going. Now I know his breeding says no to 10f but as Andy says "I DON'T CARE WHAT HIS BREEDING IS"

To me, I want to see what Nakatini does, if Liquidity doesn't go, which I am hoping he doesn't, O'Neil and Nak are boys and if Nak gets him, HELLO MONEY for ALL that plays him
Victor Espinoza, with 76 wins only seven behind Santa Anita leader Garrett Gomez with eight racing days remaining, is sitting behind Corey Nakatani for a possible Kentucky Derby mount.

“We’ll ride either Notional or Great Hunter for Doug O’Neill,” agent Tony Matos said Friday. “Whichever one Corey rides, we’ll ride the other.”

pgardn 04-13-2007 08:31 PM
Right now I would go:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy
Notional
Any Given Saturday
Nobiz

in that order.

Circular Quay I dont like at all. If he does win, preps are really going to change. Barbaro has started a trend that might die this year. If CQ wins, huge reinforcement of take it easy path.

If Scat Daddy wins, more of a return to "run that animal". Very trendy stuff.
And I also realize the trendy nature of my first two as they will run tomorrow. They have not hurt me yet. So we wait. WE also must make note of post position influence. If Street Sense starts from the 20 hole... I dont like him.

Scav 04-13-2007 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
Victor Espinoza, with 76 wins only seven behind Santa Anita leader Garrett Gomez with eight racing days remaining, is sitting behind Corey Nakatani for a possible Kentucky Derby mount.

“We’ll ride either Notional or Great Hunter for Doug O’Neill,” agent Tony Matos said Friday. “Whichever one Corey rides, we’ll ride the other.”
Great info Hot, thanks for making me not go to sleep for 3 weeks now thinking about all the money I am going to make on Notional when CNak gets aboard.. :)

Either way, I am happy with either jock quite honestly, even though I think Victor is a better front rider then back but whatever, both are good jocks, better then Albarado

just thinking, could we possibly have an Albarado Off angle created soon? Something to focus on

2Hot4TV 04-13-2007 08:49 PM
Right now I like Street Sense. We know the horse is bred to get the distance and shows that he is as game as they come. (reminds me of last years winner at this time.)

Circular Quay has the perfect style and anybody that thinks he's a sprinter needs to look at his pedigree. I just wonder why they sent him to Califorina to train this winter on Cushion rack. add in the fact that he will go 8 weeks into the Derby makes me think he has a problem like bad feet?

Scav 04-13-2007 08:51 PM
CQ ran monsterous last at FG, I am guessing that he doesn't even make it to the Derby, and if he does, how he looks during the week will tell us alot because I think he might be gutted, not Sinister Minister gutted but like need about 6 months off gutted

Cajungator26 04-13-2007 08:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
CQ ran monsterous last at FG, I am guessing that he doesn't even make it to the Derby, and if he does, how he looks during the week will tell us alot because I think he might be gutted, not Sinister Minister gutted but like need about 6 months off gutted
Agreed, Scav... he's like 800 lbs soaking wet and I heard that they are having some trouble with keeping weight on him. The Derby would be awfully tough on a horse like that.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-13-2007 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much
HOW has any given saturday progressed at all, he had to go backwards off of his last start in the wood

whodey17 04-13-2007 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
HOW has any given saturday progressed at all, he had to go backwards off of his last start in the wood
I think his start in the Wood is a toss out. I really think the horse wasnt ready after his battle with SS.

Coach Pants 04-13-2007 09:02 PM
O'Neill scares me more than Pletcher. The guy has had some tough luck the past few weeks but i'm expecting he'll have a big Derby day with Liquidity and Notional.

Sure it's trainerspeak™, but he's high on both horses. He said Liquidity wasn't breathing hard after the SA derby...that's the sign of a stubborn, lazy horse. If anyone can wake this horse up it's O'Neill.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-13-2007 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
O'neill scares me more than Pletcher. The guy has had some tough luck the past few weeks but i'm expecting he'll have a big Derby day with Liquidity and Notional.

Sure it's trainerspeakâ„¢, but he's high on both horses. He said Liquidity wasn't breathing hard after the SA derby...that's the sign of a stubborn, lazy horse. If anyone can wake this horse up it's O'neill.
im going to have to agree with you, even though i dont like the 2 you mentioned i do like great hunter, and i think pletcher will have a bad derby day, i dont think a pletcher horse will make the superfecta.

Cajungator26 04-13-2007 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
O'neill scares me more than Pletcher. The guy has had some tough luck the past few weeks but i'm expecting he'll have a big Derby day with Liquidity and Notional.

Sure it's trainerspeakâ„¢, but he's high on both horses. He said Liquidity wasn't breathing hard after the SA derby...that's the sign of a stubborn, lazy horse. If anyone can wake this horse up it's O'neill.
I didn't think he looked tired, either... he hung in the SA derby. Liquidity was my Derby horse, but it's hard to like a horse like that. I want to see a gritty horse win it... not some suck up. I'd much rather Notional at this point... at least he tries.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-13-2007 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by whodey17
I think his start in the Wood is a toss out. I really think the horse wasnt ready after his battle with SS.
thats intresting, tossing out a horses last derby prep ?

i just dont think hes good enough he had everything going for him when he faced street sense, and he couldnt win, and then when they turned for home he quit vs nobiz....he wanted no part of nobiz through the lane.

Sightseek 04-13-2007 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
thats intresting, tossing out a horses last derby prep ?

i just dont think hes good enough he had everything going for him when he faced street sense, and he couldnt win, and then when they turned for home he quit vs nobiz....he wanted no part of nobiz through the lane.
I take it you left Bluegrass Cat off your ticket?

Also, you don't always have to win your prep to come out the winner of the race you were prepping for...

Coach Pants 04-13-2007 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I didn't think he looked tired, either... he hung in the SA derby. Liquidity was my Derby horse, but it's hard to like a horse like that. I want to see a gritty horse win it... not some suck up. I'd much rather Notional at this point... at least he tries.
He was my main wager in the race. I was pissed because I had savers on Tiago and Boutrous. Was real close to making Tiago my main bet. Maddening day.

I'm definitely including Notional and Liquidity in my exotic wagers on D-Day.

Cajungator26 04-13-2007 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
thats intresting, tossing out a horses last derby prep ?

i just dont think hes good enough he had everything going for him when he faced street sense, and he couldnt win, and then when they turned for home he quit vs nobiz....he wanted no part of nobiz through the lane.
PG... I'll try this one more time. Street Sense and Any Given Saturday BOTH ran a great race at Tampa... no joke, a head bob would have won it for AGS. The horse was not being prepped to run in the Wood and ran short there IMO. He was tired. The real question is whether or not he'll be rested enough to win the Derby. If you should question any horse, it should be Nobiz who was all out to win the Wood and STILL green. I wasn't impressed one bit... sorry.

Scav 04-13-2007 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by whodey17
I think his start in the Wood is a toss out. I really think the horse wasnt ready after his battle with SS.
agree, he got a good number in the race after a hard race in TB, and he was 4w4w the whole time, he ran well. I am not 100% sure he wants 10 panels though, bottom side is awful sprinty. I look at the bottom side for stamina, if they have it down there, I can care less who the sire is

Cajungator26 04-13-2007 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
He was my main wager in the race. I was pissed because I had savers on Tiago and Boutrous. Was real close to making Tiago my main bet. Maddening day.

I'm definitely including Notional and Liquidity in my exotic wagers on D-Day.
Hey, at least you saw Tiago... no way I would have picked that one out. LOL

Scav 04-13-2007 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
HOW has any given saturday progressed at all, he had to go backwards off of his last start in the wood
I am not even going to try and get into a knowledgable conversation with you, please try and refrain from ruining a good conversation here

Coach Pants 04-13-2007 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Hey, at least you saw Tiago... no way I would have picked that one out. LOL
I'm a rare breed. I like Mike Smith. He's helped me cash a few signers in my day. My stupid ass fell for the haterspeakâ„¢ Smith off jive that's abundant here and that resulted in me finding anything to not put Tiago as my top choice. Oh...found it...he didn't actually win his maiden race.

Nevermind the good works and Hall of Famer Smith flying in for the big check.

DOH!

Sightseek 04-13-2007 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
agree, he got a good number in the race after a hard race in TB, and he was 4w4w the whole time, he ran well. I am not 100% sure he wants 10 panels though, bottom side is awful sprinty. I look at the bottom side for stamina, if they have it down there, I can care less who the sire is
According to Brisbet his bottom doesn't say 'sprint'

Scav 04-13-2007 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
He was my main wager in the race. I was pissed because I had savers on Tiago and Boutrous. Was real close to making Tiago my main bet. Maddening day.

I'm definitely including Notional and Liquidity in my exotic wagers on D-Day.
What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping

Cajungator26 04-13-2007 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
agree, he got a good number in the race after a hard race in TB, and he was 4w4w the whole time, he ran well. I am not 100% sure he wants 10 panels though, bottom side is awful sprinty. I look at the bottom side for stamina, if they have it down there, I can care less who the sire is
Scav, at the risk of sounding ignorant, how is AGS sprinty on his dam side? His dam is by AP Indy and out of a Spectacular Bid mare.

Scav 04-13-2007 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
According to Brisbet his bottom doesn't say 'sprint'
Who are we talking about? Any Given Saturday, then I screwed up, I meant Cowtown Cat

Any Given Saturday most definetly has a bottom side stamina to him with AP Indy there

Scav 04-13-2007 09:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Scav, at the risk of sounding ignorant, how is AGS sprinty on his dam side? His dam is by AP Indy and out of a Spectacular Bid mare.
I screwed up, i was thinking of pigtown Cat

Sightseek 04-13-2007 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Who are we talking about? Any Given Saturday, then I screwed up, I meant Cowtown Cat

Any Given Saturday most definetly has a bottom side stamina to him with AP Indy there
Those Pletcher's really start to blend together after awhile! :D I just really don't like Cowtown Cat and if he wins, I'm going to ask BTW to fed-ex me that dunce cap.

Scav 04-13-2007 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
Those Pletcher's really start to blend together after awhile! :D I just really don't like Cowtown Cat and if he wins, I'm going to ask BTW to fed-ex me that dunce cap.
I'll wear a packers jersey to every bears game I go to if he wins

Coach Pants 04-13-2007 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping
I'm making my bets before I go. The pick 3's are juicy as hell on Derby day. I'm rolling 6 of them and playing exactas and a super or two for the derby. After the Giacamo super slam i'm hooked on the big race super.

Scav 04-13-2007 09:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
I'm making my bets before I go. The pick 3's are juicy as hell on Derby day. I'm rolling 6 of them and playing exactas and a super or two for the derby. After the Giacamo super slam i'm hooked on the big race super.
I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st

Cajungator26 04-13-2007 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I screwed up, i was thinking of pigtown Cat
LMFAO... Pigtown Cat. :D

Left Bank 04-13-2007 09:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st
What happens between derby day and july 1st?

Coach Pants 04-13-2007 09:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st
Yeah i'll be too busy getting hammered to worry about betting. Plus it's a nightmare to wager on derby day...even on the backside. And the tellers at Churchill are horrible.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-13-2007 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping

1:08 ? are you crazy ? your guessing that based on what ? I dont mean to sound rude or anything but 1:08, i look at the race and i dont see much pace, where do you see it that hot of fractions coming from ?

Scav 04-13-2007 09:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kimmeastar
What happens between derby day and july 1st?
Was talking about Arlington's daily race cards, they are crap from about May to around July, could be different this year with Poly, we will see. July is when it starts to pick up because Churchill closes and turf racing is in full swing, plus they have plenty of stakes weekends (Illinois Day and Million Preview day come to mind right now)

Coach Pants 04-13-2007 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
1:08 ? are you crazy ? your guessing that based on what ? I dont mean to sound rude or anything but 1:08, i look at the race and i dont see much pace, where do you see it that hot of fractions coming from ?
Stormello

Sightseek 04-13-2007 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Yeah i'll be too busy getting hammered to worry about betting. Plus it's a nightmare to wager on derby day...even on the backside. And the tellers at Churchill are horrible.
Not to mention there are like 3 computers in the whole joint on the main floor. :mad:

POINTGIVEN1985 04-13-2007 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I am not even going to try and get into a knowledgable conversation with you, please try and refrain from ruining a good conversation here
what is your problem ?

Any given saturday did not progress in the wood, how did he progess ? you said your look for horses to progress, i just asked you a question, and you respond this way ?

POINTGIVEN1985 04-13-2007 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Stormello
its going to take alot more then him to go 1:08, and his latest work was slow, and now curin is saying they want to teach him to rate.

there is speed but there is no sprinter speed like last year w/ keyed entry and sinister minister.

miraja2 04-13-2007 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
That was Euro that knew of that lady... don't think he's on here anymore. Drat!

P.S.

The winner of the derby is coming out of the 9 hole.
Don't kid yourself....the person known as "eurobounce" still posts here, but under a new name.


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