its not that easy this horse has soooo much potential i think he wins the derby, hes my pick

Oh heavens no!!

*sips Soy Milk Caramel Latte*

LOL! You can be really funny sometimes.

I couldn't find the right pic from Goodfellas. It would've been perfect!! :(

Handicapping 101. The longer the races, the slower the paces tend to be and the harder it is for closers to win. The shorter the races, the faster the paces and more contested and the more likely u are to see the pace-setters wilt and set it up for a closer.

it's really curious to me that there seem to be alot of near the front runners and deep closers ... it is really difficult to win the Derby from either spot...
the deep closers need the perfect trip...( Gia-como) Who fits the mid pack mold that could steal this thing???? Great Hunter? Street Sense/Tiago/Circular Quay all come from a good distance back... There are alot of quality horses out there but I can't see the stand out!!!! There is only a few preps left... This is either a handicappers dream or a handicappers nightmare....

Belmont Day 2006 marked the return of the infamous Dead Rail. Got worse as the day went on. That's the ONLY reason he got by Bluegrass Cat. The rest of that field wasn't much.

They were both coming home like turtles. And the fact that Nobiz was pushing the pace and collapsing doesnt fair well for Sightseeing. He couldnt even go by in a pedestrian final 1/8th

While I'm no real fan of Nobiz, being a prototypical "hype" horse, there's no way anybody gets by him from THAT field last Saturday. Sightseeing had dead aim on him and couldn't finish the deal. 1 1/8m, 1 1/4 miles, 1 1/2 miles or 10 miles; it won't matter.

Funny, I was remembering Thunder Gulch's Blue Grass too. He was 24/1 on Derby Day. Hopefully we'll both be right about AGS on Derby Day and get a nice payoff.:)

Exactly, unless you have the unique case of a Jazil who legitimately needs more distance because he just doesn't get tired or slow down.

I was thinking the other day about all-time overlays and that certainly is on the list. The joke of it was he won the Remsen, was 2nd in the Hollywood Futurity, won the FoY, and won the Fla Derby before the clunker in the Blue Grass. How they let him go at that price was amazing. I was 17 years old and remember going to the OTB down the block to bet it and had to get someone to cash my ticket for me!!! LOL

As much as I wanted Serena's Song to win that day, I knew the distance would get her. I played Thunder Gulch across the board and started screaming when he hit the lead. My only other overlay was Casual Lies in 1992. I wanted Ap Indy but decided to play CL when they scratched Indy. Figured CS had been running 2nd or 3rd to Indy in CA. so why not play him across the board.

Trivia... do you remember who was sent off as the favorite that day? How about the 2nd choice? I'll give you a hint on the 2nd one... he's not an American horse.

Which Derby? The 1995 or 1992?

'95.

The entry of Serena's Song and Timber Country were the favorites and I believe Talkin Man was 2nd choice.

well done!

Thank you. Off to take care of the dogs now. Have a good evening!

Really? The rail was where: Bushfire came back to win the Acorn, Anew wired the True North and Bluegrass Cat never raced, until inside the eighth pole when he was already passed.

NT

He gets by, he doesn't get by . . .

I watched the race -- numerous times, very closely. Taped it, watched it on replays, etc. I am not a trainer -- and I am waiting for a few of the resident trainers to give their opinion -- however, I think there are a few observations here, and maybe they can go either way. Did this colt improve off his previous performance? Forget about the #'s and don't get fanatical. Tagg had some issues that needed to be worked out, and he certainly didn't want this colt running some monster, super impressive race with a freaky # (we've seen those colts before, that's right, not after finishing up the track in the Derby). The colt improved vis a vis his issues. Tagg is an excellent horseman -- and that's some of his peer's opinions. He knows how to and wants this colt to be ready for the great performance in the Derby.

On the other hand -- was this a picture perfect, 100% problem free performance. To me, and I hate sounding like an internet or arm-chair trainer, but that colt did not look at all comfortable down the backstretch. They were fighting each other there and the colt never really got settled. By the time he might have been ready to settle, it was too late -- it was time to go! As much as I've liked this horse from day one, my knee-jerk reaction/feeling is that you have that kind of horse, going that way, in the Derby -- well, it doesn't play out well. I think Tagg still has some work to do, or it just is what it is perhaps. I don't know. Hopefully this colt can relax and be more managable.

Eric

Hardly that simple. The last time I counted, closers had won almost half the Ky derby in the last 60 years. Ive already posted the list a couple of times, so PM if you need more evidence....Front runners/Pressers won about 25%. Dont know why so many people cling to this belief but it seems well known that the classic winning trip in the derby is the wide closing path. Doesnt win all the time or even most of the time, but more than the others...

see the part that you are omitting, and part of why it seems so simple. Is that you are omitting the fact that we got twenty horses in the derby. THere are bound to be 5 or more types that want the lead. You cant help but set torrid fractions. You know on another board someone mentioned the "well known fact" that opening fractions in the derby are usually hot. WEll yeah, perhaps you dont agree but in any event this is another reason to think that your theory is not so simple as you make it sound.

Another part that complicates it is we are seeing a lot of good miler types being asked to do 8 1/2; 9 f at this time of year and then asked to go 10f in another month. It is not a long time we have to evaluate these types and determine if they go onto get 10f or not. We dont have a million races or even 3 or 4 to evaluate them on the ability to go 10f. So you have to start looking at the final fractions very closely.

Another problem w/ Jazil example (prolly a bad example on my part) is they had him closing from 20 lengths back in that Wood but I have my doubts; we have seen enuf messed up charts having to do with closers that move up in between calls. (Geez anyone remember last years derby chart and how effed up it was? Derek being headed by Jazil in midstretch?? Bris had Jazil home in 23.6?? The front runners ran 26.5 in the fourth quarter??? oh I could go on).

Someone above mentioned how many front runners and closers there seem to be. In my opinion this year actually seems to have less closers than usual. I dunno maybe its me, or maybe some horse that's a stalker will wind up being a closer in May. Like Fu Peg, there are a few derby winners that had to do that. I dont see the front runners being all that suicidal this year, I think this years field seems to have an inordinate amount of pressers e.g. AGS, Cowtown, etc.

Something happened to him in the Blue grass. They went 49 sec. to the 1/2 and then TG tired! So I dunno if people thought he had got hurt or what. Obviously the race was a toss for handicapping purposes, in retro spect.

Im going from what I read, but do you recall anything else about that Bluegrass? Did they say TG got hurt or something?

***

OH yeah before I forget, one more thing about this closer/front runner thing...

It seems the last 5 or 6 years have produced more winners from just off the pace then what's typical. And I dont mean that to say that this is in aberration and that the race must be run to the statistical norm of 50% closers....

What I mean is perhaps there are emerging trends that are making this race now favorable to stalkers,perhaps trainers are more choosey on who they send to this race. I dont have an answer to that, but it's just another issue that favors the other argument against closers.

it doesn't matter if the horse closes,stalks or leads at a mile and a quarter the horse has to relax and hit his best stride to reserve energy. go ahead bet nobiz (underlay) if he repeats satudays performance use your tickets as crying towels. someone was talking about this horses potential. i learned a long time ago potential does not cash winning tickets. that horse has not run a proper race yet, he either puts it together derby day or he will lose. from his prior performances are you willing to take a low price and bet on it ?