Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   Nobiz Like Showbiz (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11705)

Danzig 04-07-2007 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
it's not just the loss, its the way he lost, maybe the street sense race took to much out of him, if they run him back in the derby in 4 weeks they could ruin the horse, it happens every year.

so should street sense skip the bluegrass? if he runs there, would running in the derby ruin him? i sincerely doubt that running in the tampa bay, the wood, and then the derby is going to 'ruin' any horse. providing he's healthy of course.
certainly, empire maker wasn't 'ruined' by running on a bad foot in the derby, where he finished second, and then running back in the 12f belmont. the only thing that cut his career short was his sire being unbridled!

MLC 04-07-2007 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
OK, so the Tampa Race wasn't a good race. OK....at least now I know what you are saying. I also think what you are saying is wrong. I cannot imagine how anyone could think today's performance by Any Given Saturday was at all comparable to his previous effort.

I agree. I don't pretend to know as much as most of you, but it appeared to me that AGS was a tired horse; definately not the same as the horse that battled SS to the wire in Tampa. I did like Nobiz' performance however.

ateamstupid 04-07-2007 08:05 PM

Any Given Saturday was wide as hell today, and it wasn't like he was beaten a mile, so I wouldn't toss him from the Derby.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-07-2007 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
so should street sense skip the bluegrass? if he runs there, would running in the derby ruin him? i sincerely doubt that running in the tampa bay, the wood, and then the derby is going to 'ruin' any horse. providing he's healthy of course.
certainly, empire maker wasn't 'ruined' by running on a bad foot in the derby, where he finished second, and then running back in the 12f belmont. the only thing that cut his career short was his sire being unbridled!

its different street sense like nobiz is simply better then any given saturday, a better horse, more talented whatever you want to call it

Danzig 04-07-2007 08:06 PM

i just wish i knew the riders orders for today...if you can finish third, do so...is that what was said? don't kill the horse for the win? or was it a bad race on his part?
either way, i'd toss other horses i saw today, win or lose, before tossing AGS.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-07-2007 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Andy, can you settle the debate on Corinthian vs. Magna Grad in the Corinthian thread? B/c I seem to be the only one thinking the Corin crowd feeling he would beat him "8 out of 10 times" and is a "much better horse" than Magna Graduate are on some serious drugs.

i switched that to 6.8/10, alot of other ppl also agree that corinthian is alot better to

Danzig 04-07-2007 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
its different street sense like nobiz is simply better then any given saturday, a better horse, more talented whatever you want to call it

i disagree.

i thought any given saturday looked better than SS in the tampa race. altho he lost today, this race does not in any way tell me that nobiz was the better horse. i'd be surprised if nobiz hit the board come may 5.

JJP 04-07-2007 08:10 PM

AGS does bring back some memories of Bluegrass Cat: A Pletcher runner who run big at Tampa, then throw a poor race in his final Derby prep. BC ended up running 2nd at a big price. I'm sure AGS will not be as big a price as Bluegrass Cat was last year, but there will be many off the bandwagon (probably rightfully so) but at 15-1 or so he could be a longshot to spice up the exactas and/or tris.

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Andy, can you settle the debate on Corinthian vs. Magna Grad in the Corinthian thread? B/c I seem to be the only one thinking the Corin crowd feeling he would beat him "8 out of 10 times" and is a "much better horse" than Magna Graduate are on some serious drugs.

I don't have an opinion other than realism and Corinthian have rarely gone hand in hand. He did run one very nice race in Florida, and another OK one, but he has still been WAY overhyped considering what he has delivered. I'm no great fan of Magna Graduate, and didn't like him at all today, but he has certainly accomplished a LOT more than Corinthian ( though he has also had more chances ), and nothing about Corinthian's actual on-track performances indicate that he is a better horse than Magna Graduate...much less as much better as beating him 8 out of 10 times would suggest.

But hey, there's a thread here right now which lists Tiago as a top five Derby contender, so reality and posting seem to be two seperate issues in more than one place.

MLC 04-07-2007 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i disagree.

i thought any given saturday looked better than SS in the tampa race. altho he lost today, this race does not in any way tell me that nobiz was the better horse. i'd be surprised if nobiz hit the board come may 5.

I agree. As much as I like Nobiz, he still may have some issues with the size of the derby crowd.

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MLC
I agree. I don't pretend to know as much as most of you, but it appeared to me that AGS was a tired horse; definately not the same as the horse that battled SS to the wire in Tampa. I did like Nobiz' performance however.

My problem with Nobiz is the final time was so slow. However, from a race dynamics standpoint, he ran very well. Look how poorly the other two horses involved in the pace did, as well as Any Given Saturday who was stalking, and add to that the so far unproven Sightseeing who finished second while clearly taking advantage of the pace, and it's hard NOT to say Nobiz ran well. But, the final time takes a lot of that away.

It's a double edged sword.

golfer 04-07-2007 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't have an opinion other than realism and Corinthian have rarely gone hand in hand. He did run one very nice race in Florida, and another OK one, but he has still been WAY overhyped considering what he has delivered. I'm no great fan of Magna Graduate, and didn't like him at all today, but he has certainly accomplished a LOT more than Corinthian ( though he has also had more chances ), and nothing about Corinthian's actual on-track performances indicate that he is a better horse than Magna Graduate...much less as much better as beating him 8 out of 10 times would suggest.

But hey, there's a thread here right now which lists Tiago as a top five Derby contender, so reality and posting seem to be two seperate issues in more than one place.

Did you see the head on view of the start? Am I nuts in thinking the assistant starter still had a hold of him when the gate opened, which caused him to jump? (By the way, this has nothing to do with whether or not he's better than Magna Grad).

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer
Did you see the head on view of the start? Am I nuts in thinking the assistant starter still had a hold of him when the gate opened, which caused him to jump? (By the way, this has nothing to do with whether or not he's better than Magna Grad).


I didn't watch it carefully, but will try to later, so for now it wouldn't be at all fair for me to have any opinion.

golfer 04-07-2007 08:26 PM

By the way, the horse who ran second to AGS in his first Tampa start, All I Can Get, ran in a 7 furlong minor stakes race today, went 47 to the half, and spit the bit. Not judging the relevance, just reporting the facts (Yes, I bet on this piece also:mad: , I had a tough day:confused: )

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmfhb411
And who was that stupid little girl who asked Velazquez to tell everyone who his Derby mount would be less than 10 seconds after he dismounts from AGS ?

Did she really think he was giving her an answer ? :eek: :eek:

He doesn't even know, though I am guessing he sticks with Any Given Saturday, especially as Circular Quay is VERY iffy.

Danzig 04-07-2007 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He doesn't even know, though I am guessing he sticks with Any Given Saturday, especially as Circular Quay is VERY iffy.

is it just me, or did pletcher seem just the teensiest bit uncomfortable when asked about CQ? of course he said there is no problem....anyone believe that to be the absolute truth?

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
is it just me, or did pletcher seem just the teensiest bit uncomfortable when asked about CQ? of course he said there is no problem....anyone believe that to be the absolute truth?


I don't envy Todd being in that predicament, and I am sure it is his hope they can get him to the Derby sound, but I also don't believe that will be the case. Nor do most people around the racetrack. It's too bad as he would only add to the race.....especially with some of the mediocrities that won preps today.

Hoist Her Flag 04-07-2007 08:35 PM

Last Race
 
Sightseeing better go the Derby, If the speed falters, hes just as good as Tiago, who won out West. Why did Shug run in the Wood, if he was just going to save him for a summer campaign? Today he ran for 2nd place money and got 2nd. If Pletcher can run King of the Roxy and some other dubious horses are going to run. Plus I recall a Funny Cide ran 2nd in the wood to a superior horse and then reversed it 4 weeks later.

randallscott35 04-07-2007 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag
Sightseeing better go the Derby, If the speed falters, hes just as good as Tiago, who won out West. Why did Shug run in the Wood, if he was just going to save him for a summer campaign? Today he ran for 2nd place money and got 2nd. If Pletcher can run King of the Roxy and some other dubious horses are going to run. Plus I recall a Funny Cide ran 2nd in the wood to a superior horse and then reversed it 4 weeks later.

Comparing Empire Maker to Nobiz? No.

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Comparing Empire Maker to Nobiz? No.


It's no more ridiculous than comparing Sightseeing's performance today to Funny Cide's effort against Empire Maker.

gales0678 04-07-2007 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer
Did you see the head on view of the start? Am I nuts in thinking the assistant starter still had a hold of him when the gate opened, which caused him to jump? (By the way, this has nothing to do with whether or not he's better than Magna Grad).

You're not nuts, this impacted the whole race and sent a lot of tickests up in flames, how can the NYRA allow this to happen on one of the biggest days of the year , pity the public to think the game is fair in NY

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
You're not nuts, this impacted the whole race and sent a lot of tickests up in flames, how can the NYRA allow this to happen on one of the biggest days of the year , pity the public to think the game is fair in NY


I don't understand what this means? NYRA has refunded TONS of money because of horses that had unfair starts and to any way insinuate that NYRA doesn't take these matters VERY seriously and go out of their way to make sure the right thing is done by the betting public in these cases flies in the face of the facts. You know, sometimes it is the horse that causes his or her own problems at the start, and that is a risk we all take when we are betting.

Your comment leads me to believe you have a relationship with someone else interested in the franchise. That isn't the case...is it?

sumitas 04-07-2007 08:42 PM

it doesn't seem that the starting gate is the ultimate solution for horse racing...too many problems, fo sho.

randallscott35 04-07-2007 08:43 PM

"And the flag is up.....and there off." ---No thanks.

gales0678 04-07-2007 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't understand what this means? NYRA has refunded TONS of money because of horses that had unfair starts and to any way insinuate that NYRA doesn't take these matters VERY seriously and go out of their way to make sure the right thing is done by the betting public in these cases flies in the face of the facts. You know, sometimes it is the horse that causes his or her own problems at the start, and that is a risk we all take when we are betting.

Your comment leads me to believe you have a relationship with someone else interested in the franchise. That isn't the case...is it?

No relationship with any else interested in the NYRA - Steve can confirm that
but
Andy - that was a joke - how does a 3/5 shot got held at the gate by the asst. starter - most of the public doesn't pick these minor things up , but, that was a joke today - and i didn't even play the race

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
No relationship with any else interested in the NYRA - Steve can confirm that
but
Andy - that was a joke - how does a 3/5 shot got held at the gate by the asst. starter - most of the public doesn't pick these minor things up , but, that was a joke today - and i didn't even play the race


I'm sorry, I thought you had a relationship with West Point Stables. I must have you confused with somebody else.

gales0678 04-07-2007 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'm sorry, I thought you had a relationship with West Point Stables. I must have you confused with somebody else.

i have a friend who owns a few west point horses that's all

but

what does that have to do with a 3/5 shot being held at the gate?

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
i have a friend who owns a few west point horses that's all

but

what does that have to do with a 3/5 shot being held at the gate?


He was NOT held at the gate, and I just watched the head on over ten times, and perhaps you need to read the quote from Javiar Castellano in Dave Grening's piece in the Daily Racing Form....



"He was so good today in the paddock and in the gate," said Castellano, who rode Corinthian. "Today, everything was beautiful. As soon as they opened the gate - boom! He just broke in the air. I don't even know how I stayed on."


I am guessing Javiar knows better than you or I.

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
i have a friend who owns a few west point horses that's all

but

what does that have to do with a 3/5 shot being held at the gate?


And, by the way, it has a lot to do with comments slamming NYRA, especially ones in this case that were specifically unfair and generally unfair, as Terry Finley from West Point Stables is an integral part of Empire Racing which is trying to win the racing franchise.

Believe me, this is not a criticism of Terry, who I get along quite well with, or Empire, but I think it is important for us to be up front about our allegiances when criticizing entities in racing. Sort of how I say Richard Migliore is my friend when it is relevent to a post I am making.

King Glorious 04-07-2007 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'm not a bounce guy, but.....

To be honest, and I really liked this horse going into today's race, and he was just dreadful, but I would have to say today's result may be a reasonable example of why deviating from laid out plans can blow up in your face. Pletcher had presumably been training him to run next week and now he ran a week earlier than originally planned. I'm no trainer, and maybe Chuck could offer his opinion, but I don't think it's inconceivable that what we saw was a short horse. He has run well in the past, and today's effort was SO bad that I am inclined to think there has to be some story.

U don't need Chuck to tell u this. This is EXACTLY what I said would be the case before the race.

golfer 04-07-2007 08:59 PM

No offense Andy, but Castellano probably wasn't focusing on the assistant starter's hand. But if, after watching it a bunch of times, you feel it wasn't an issue, I will accept that. I have no axe to grind, my day was pretty much shot at that point anyway.

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer
No offense Andy, but Castellano probably wasn't focusing on the assistant starter's hand. But if, after watching it a bunch of times, you feel it wasn't an issue, I will accept that. I have no axe to grind, my day was pretty much shot at that point anyway.

I disagree. I think Javiar would have known and would have voiced his displeasure. I have seen plenty of horses held in the gate....and none of them did what this one did at the start. It sucks....but unfortunately it happens.

King Glorious 04-07-2007 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He ran 1 1/2 seconds slower than Magna Graduate.

I know, I know........totally different circumstances but for what it's worth, Nobiz didn't even run as fast a final time as he did when winning the Remsen last year. I will be interested in what the figures are for today. He was given a 97 Beyer for the Remsen. His career figures have been 96-92-97-98-94 and then today's race. He's a consistent horse but certainly not a brilliant one and from my perspective and seemingly from Beyer's, he hasn't progressed one bit. He's just consistently good but not anything more than that.

hoovesupsideyourhead 04-07-2007 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Dont forget that sheet numbers arent facts they are opinions

bingo we have a winner..voodoo:D

gales0678 04-07-2007 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He was NOT held at the gate, and I just watched the head on over ten times, and perhaps you need to read the quote from Javiar Castellano in Dave Grening's piece in the Daily Racing Form....



"He was so good today in the paddock and in the gate," said Castellano, who rode Corinthian. "Today, everything was beautiful. As soon as they opened the gate - boom! He just broke in the air. I don't even know how I stayed on."


I am guessing Javiar knows better than you or I.

Of course Javiar is not going to say he was held at the gate. The entire OTB where I watched the race, went up in arms during the replay, that's when i saw it. I didn't even notice it at the start. We can all have opinions and we can all disagree, but, at leats 5 people at the OTB thought he was held, and they are entitled to their opinions as well.
I saw golfer's post and simply agreed with him that it was a joke that this happened. Now we may BOTH be dead wrong and people at OTB may be dead wrong and you maybe right , but ,we still have a right to express our opinion on what we thought happened and people can make opinions from there. There were a lot of disapointed horse players at the OTB today after seeing that replay. Maybe they just all are paranoid.

Again what does it matter if a friend of mind has a few %'s in a few horses at WPS have to do with this race? I am simply a fan making a comment on something I saw

blackthroatedwind 04-07-2007 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

Again what does it matter if a friend of mind has a few %'s in a few horses at WPS have to do with this race? I am simply a fan making a comment on something I saw


It matters a lot in this situation when you took an unfair, and indefensible, shot at NYRA. Your relationship with Empire Racing is specifically important in this case and extremely relevent.

Hey, I'm biased about things as well, it's hard not to be when you have associations in this game. It just helps to be more up front about them.

Suffolk Shippers 04-07-2007 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I know, I know........totally different circumstances but for what it's worth, Nobiz didn't even run as fast a final time as he did when winning the Remsen last year. I will be interested in what the figures are for today. He was given a 97 Beyer for the Remsen. His career figures have been 96-92-97-98-94 and then today's race. He's a consistent horse but certainly not a brilliant one and from my perspective and seemingly from Beyer's, he hasn't progressed one bit. He's just consistently good but not anything more than that.

excellent point, he is consistently a top performer...but can those consistent numbers translate to a $2 million score on Derby Day? I tend to think not.
Nobiz reminds me a little of Smarty Jones, a very hard horse to keep under wraps. Cornelio did today to an extent, but I don't trust him over the long term doing it. Stew Elliot did well in keeping Smarty under wraps, until the Belmont...

gales0678 04-07-2007 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It matters a lot in this situation when you took an unfair, and indefensible, shot at NYRA. Your relationship with Empire Racing is specifically important in this case and extremely relevent.

Hey, I'm biased about things as well, it's hard not to be when you have associations in this game. It just helps to be more up front about them.

Andy in all honesty I have never met Terry Finely he wouldn't even know who I was. Until you mentioned he was involded with Empire I had no idea.
As you know there are many, many West Point owners. I have no financial interest in empire or west point. I am fortuante eneough to get to go see the horses train once in a while as a guest. I was speaking as a fan of the game and what people at an OTB observed around me and then saw a fellow poster comment about what happened today and responed. You make it sound as though I just got off the phone with Finely and he put me up to this - nothing could be further from the truth. I will tell you this, I am not the only one going to bed tonight thinking that that horse was held. Perhaps some one else on this board can give an opinon as to what they think happend besides myself , golfer , and you - Anybody else see the head on replay of the Corinthian race?

Cajungator26 04-07-2007 09:40 PM

I only saw it once, Gales...

To me, it looked like Corinthian reared and wasn't held. Typical headcase move for him IMO.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:02 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.