i fully understand taking AGS to the wood.
CQ-now that half of the equation doesn't add up. i also expect to hear that something is amiss with the horse.

AGS could go to Ill, Ark or even SoCal to get earnings. No need to shelve CQ. I suspect that there is more to it than earnings. CQ has not trained since 3/26. Something is amiss with him. The Pletcher barn has favored CQ from Day 1. Pletcher handled his sire and trained the dam to one of his very first G1 wins. This horse was the golden boy of the barn and I suspect that something may be wrong w/him. I doubt that they would be willing to "sacrifice" a Derby for him to benefit another. remember Pletcher handled Thunder Gulch and trained Circle of Life FOR TABOR. Coolmore is not a client that Todd wants to rile.

This has got to be the reason.
If Any Given Saturday is ready and his owners are desperately wanting to make the derby, the wood is a far easier spot than the BlueGrass to get the graded earnings.
I hope that CQ is sound, otherwise i assume they would run him in the bluegrass, even though he didn't love the track when he ran their last fall.

Unfortunately, I think this is the case as well.

Well actually I have always heard that Scat Daddy was the "golden boy of the barn" b/c TP owned part of him.
Who knows what led to this decision? The problem with CQ is that he isn't "just" a G1 winning horse. He is a G1 winning horse by Thunder Gulch and out of a G1 winning mare. In today's game that makes him a piece of metal and the breeding shed a giant magnet. I fear we may have seen the last of him, but we have NO proof of that yet, so let's hope I'm wrong.
I have always liked this horse because I like his style (I love deep closers) and because I always liked Thunder Gulch......BUT this horse may come to represent everything that is wrong with racing.
First of all look at his pedigree. It is nothing but RAN and Northern Dancer EVERYWHERE!! http://www.pedigreequery.com/circular+quay
Secondly, if he actually wins the Derby off an 8-week layoff (which I don't think is out of the question) it will deal yet another blow to the seemingly arcane concept of running racehorses in horseraces.

This is a strange move. However, I just think that if Pletcher were going to screw an owner to get AGS in, Tabor is not that guy. More likely something is wrong with CQ.

Im not qualified to judge this as good or bad. Unusual yes.A question I would like to ask some of the horsemen ,not just fans as I am. Can you have a horse ready to give his best effort and dont want to waste it for a prep race? Can youkeep him wound up for two months? Can Pletcher be thinking this horse is the special one and is actually training for the TC and not just the Derby. If he goes in the Derby I think it would be a mistake to automaticly toss him for this reason.

I agree, but Tabor has got plenty of money, so I doubt they're retiring CQ this early so they can make him a stallion.

Although I fully understand that the 8-week to the Derby schedule is extremely questionable, I'm going to give Pletcher the benefit of the doubt on this one.
As others have said, CQ has plenty of bottom on him, having 7 career races.
I'd much rather see him fresh and ready on May 5th, than having him suffer an injury in a prep race and be forced off the derby trail.

You are thinking logically here. That simply won't work when it comes to analyzing these decisions. Bernardini's owners had MORE than plenty of money, but that didn't prevent them from sending him to the shed before he ever saw the track as a 4yo.
At this point we are all just speculating....nobody but TP knows what this means for sure, but unfortunately early retirement is, I believe, one of the things that COULD happen.

The recent moves and anticipated moves (hard spun) are making the 'capin of the Derby a little easier, IMO.

LOL

I doubt it will be that easy for him.

See, I didn't think he had much of a chance to begin with. IF he makes it in the gate, he'll be an automatic toss for me.

Early April is an odd time to retire a horse that doesn't need to retire, so lets not jump the gun. I am however suspicious when a well organized guy like Tpdd decides to change plans. He just doesn't usually do so.

I was in Saratoga all summer and all I heard from the barn was how CQ was the "golden child" of the crop. Todd just loved him, the staff loved his easy going temperament and because he's a homebred for Tabor and with Todd's connection to sire and dam.... My guess is that though Todd owned a piece of SD, his emotional attachment was to CQ. Remember, he was not so attached to SD as to not sell his interest to Tabor.

There's a big difference between the styles of CQ and Any Given Saturday. Before this announcement it was feasible to think that Nobiz could have gotten loose and backed the pace down making it impossible for a closer like Circular Quay to get there. Any Given Saturday is a completely different horse, so I'd wait and look at the PPs before saying anybody will be "lucky to win."

NT

I recently heard the exact opposite. Heard that Todd's main derby horse was Any Given Saturday, but that his sentimental fave was Scat Daddy. I got the impression that CQ wasn't as high up on the list as those two...

So they are confident that AGS could win the Derby but would rather run him in the Wood instead of the Blue Grass because they aren't confident he's good enough to win that race or place second and get the earnings he'd need to be in the Derby? That sounds very wrong to me. If u don't think he can beat these horses in the Blue Grass, why think u can beat them when they are even tighter and more fit in the Derby?

Maybe it's me, but I think that u make a plan out for your horse based on what's best for him as far as his physical conditioning. If he came out of the TB Derby and u feel that he needs the extra week to the Blue Grass, give it to him. Don't audible now because u took another horse out of a big race and u need a filler. That's not sticking to the plan for the horse. Training and racing one horse because of how another one trains is asking for trouble in my opinion. I would think that u are supposed to handle each horse as an individual. If they are racing AGS here simply to try and have an easier chance to get the earnings and with less regard for what may be physically the best course for him, I think that's sad.

Sorry, but I'm slow this morning... just read the title to this thread and got a good chuckle. :eek:

I'm not so sure about that, if he was so great why would he debut him at Turdway?!?

http://www.thoroughbrednet.us/discus...topic=9193&hl=

Personally I thought his army's chances stacked up as such:
CQ
AGS
SD
Cowtown Cat
King of the Roxy
Sam P

I think the Turfway debut had more to do with Polytrack than anything else. WinStar seems to like its horses running in Kentucky, AGS was ready to go and Turfway was open. That just seems to make sense in my mind. Of course, I don't have ten contenders for the Derby.

NT

Well, considering Pletcher has problems with his Monkey, are you suprised he's struggling with the Wood as well? :D

Oy vey!!! :eek:

He doesn't have problems with his shiat... er... Scat!

Don't get me started this morning! :D

Keeneland opened 3 days later for 2-2.5x the MSW pot. If he ABSOLUTELY had to run, I understand it... needless to say, it was an excellent debut.

There is a bet I would be looking to put some action on.
He isn't winning the Derby.

That said, I hope CQ is okay, and can run somewhere, someplace again.

I am guessing a weird angle on this.
His connections don't want to run him on the Big A track.

The main track opens today under rainy conditions. It will then be high temperatures in the 40's the next few days with lows in the 20's. The main track had a ton of problems last fall and I am guessing they are afraid of running him on that track. Wet, freeze, thaw on a track open for three days, that had a big question mark last November.

Thus Pletcher is now stuck as it seems he could find a race next week but doesnt want him going to the Derby on 3 weeks rest. Unless the Big A would write an Allowance race to get him a light tune up?

Most likely its an injury or sickness that we dont know of yet, but maybe its my angle.

If he was worried about the track condition, then why would he take a chance running AGS there (who has a much better chance at winning the derby?)

I can't believe Pletcher would jeopardize a relationship with Tabor to help another owner get earnings. Something is amiss.

I agree, Pletcher even said that he knew AGS was classy when he got up to win that one sprinting when he knew he wanted a route.

It seems tabor is fine with Rags to Riches having an 8 week layoff heading to the Oaks, so why not 8 weeks for CQ, too?

Steve had mentioned in a thread a few weeks ago that CQ was the barn pet, but Pletcher wanted to win with AGS (or at least, thought that was his strongest chance).

Yep... we heard that from the same source.

I think people are missing part of the equation. First, it makes obvious sense to run Any Given Saturday in the Wood as that is a likely spot for him to guarantee necessary Derby earnings, as there are basically only 1 1/2 other contenders in there, with NoBiz and maybe Summer Doldrums. As good as Any Given Saturday may be, and I think he's very good, the possibility of facing Great Hunter, Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Blue Grass is simply a mathematically more difficult spot for a horse who NEEDS earnings to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Thus, Pletcher has clearly made the right choice shipping to the Wood. The funny thing is someone bringing up questions about the surface. The Big A main track is considered by the horsemen to be one of the best in the land, and though obviously the track super in NY screwed it up some last meet, just as he seemed unable to stop the inner from being a gold rail for most of the past four months, but there are NO indications it is not in fine shape now. However, many trainers are leary of the Hawthorne surface, saying it can be hard on horses, so that is very likely why Todd chose Aqueduct over the Illinois Derby.

However, why then not run Circular Quay in next week's Blue Grass? He handled the poly OK in the Breeder's Futurity, and as he doesn't need earnings, so what if he doesn't win, as theoretically what he should need is a prep. Is there another Pletcher horse now going in that race that needs earnings? I find this hard to believe as the race is very strong and a mediocrity doesn't seem likely to now crack the top contenders ( especially if he worried Any Given Saturday might not ). So, why not just run Circular Quay there? It seems the perfect " prep ". That is why I am suspect of his condition.

On the " who the barn favors ". Well, they do love Scat Daddy. He is the barn darling. However, Todd Pletcher is extraordinarily bright and he knows clearly if all horses are sound Scat Daddy is at best his third likeliest Derby winner behind Any Given Saturday and Circular Quay. You all are free to have whatever opinions you like, but Scat Daddy is a distant third choice to those two if all are healthy....and someone as sharp as Todd Pletcher is acutely aware of this. I would also believe that while it's nice to have as many bullets as possible, Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.

5 rattles.

I second that. Andy, you nailed it. Sending AGS to the Wood is the RIGHT move, from an earnings perspective as well as profile perspective... but why can't CQ at least run around the track in the Blue Grass if he's sound?!? Who cares if he finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th if it sets him up better for the big day (worked out just find for his charge last year)? Isn't that the point of a PREP?

For a guy as smart as Pletcher, he's making a really dumb move if CQ is sound enough to run this week or next and training him up to the Derby.

Todd Pletcher probably makes less " dumb moves " than any trainer I have ever seen...and that is while making many more starts than most. Thus, there has to be a missing part of this story.

His connection being Tabor.
Tabor wanted his horses to train on cushion track at Hollywood.
I dont think he wants to gamble on the Big A surface.

Just an angle, most likely its not that.

No one is suggesting that's such a brilliant move either.. But she won't be facing a field of 19 at 10f.. She may in fact not be facing even a field of 13 things that are considered opponents by a strict definition. It doesn't look like the Oaks group has any Gallorettes in it.. excepting perhaps her.

The guy manages his barn with incredible detail and rarely starts horses where they cannot win (the Dubai trip with Honey Ryder nonwithstanding.)
There HAS to be something missing.

I'm not fine with it. Rags will be an underlay when she's 4-5 or so in the Oaks. I'll be looking elsewhere.

I agree with that, and it's obvious the Oaks is a far less demanding and difficult race (not to mention, less prestigous).

But until it's clear that CQ has some soundness issues that prohibit him from running in the Derby, I'll assume that he has Mr. Tabor's full support with this move and they think his conditioning level will be good enough to compete on May 5th. But I admit, it's wishful thinking because I'm a big fan of CQ.

As I have said before while others were making their predictions for who would win the Derby, I don't know who will win it, but I guarantee that Cowtown Cat will make the field and finish EXACTLY 16th.