That is exactly what my "risk management" mindset automatically reverts to, LOL. Thanks.

Eric

full swing and miss
 

I play long shots and I've messed up so many bets with them that I am numb. The pivotal moment was when I bet Vision and Verse over Lemon Drop Kid, Charismatic and Best of Luck. I was going to make another bet with LDK on top but got in an argument with some drunk that sat at my table. to this day I think about running him and his wore out wife over with my car until they are nothing but a stain.

The Super paid over $140k at Sportsman's Park because the great Pat Day finished off the board.

Had Sarava missed the trifecta

There was a race last year at Laurel
I looked at the 80-1 shot several times but just couldn't get him there. The numbers I bet were 3-5-9. they came in behins the 8 and the Super paid over $200k. I don't claim to have missed the Super. Never considered betting it but that's all I remember as far as payouts go.

Oh, bet the Exacta with 3 other horses keying Not Phone in California...
they all came in and it paid over $20k for $1 Superfecta.

I did really well in the Breeder's Cup last year. Just couldn't get the big payoff. hit the tri int he Juv Colts. Shoulda bet the Super it was so easy. Yet early int he day. then hit Rond Pond but only hot exacta :-(
only hit win bet on Thor's Echo left out the place horse..

anyway like anyone is still reading this rambling mess

My biggest actual payout was a Superfecta at Mountaineer. keyed the first 3 places and then hit all. Didn't have the ongshot in the all spot but actually picked him to run third. Paid $4k for the $2 Super. I usually only bet $1 exotics but I chose $2 for the exacta and forgot to switch back to $1. Cashed $4,800 on one race.

i guess i have another one, which happen this past saturday....

santa anita in the kilroe mile, this one was really bad i was already having a horrible day and this was the absolute icing on the cake....

i love kip deville and i always play win place but for some strange reasson i did not, i played a $10 triple wheel my play was this....

kip deville/Bayeux, Silent Name/After Market


this is the worst play i have ever made, because i had the race figured out and i bet it horrible. i have always loved after market not to long ago i was on here saying he was super talented and could have a huge year then he lost in that gulfstream allowance and he was kinda forgotten i figured he could run third and make a large tri... but instead of me putting the 2 horses i used for second in third with after market i just put after market in third and lost out on a huge triple, even if i had it the way it was i would have took $700, 5 times because i played a $10 wheel

I was alive to Honest Lady in the last leg of the huge carryover when she was even money and Bailey got shut off on the rail. That one might have been $200K.

I once played powerball and had one of the numbers.

You're absolutely right. Place betting is a mistake. You use the price horse in exactas, and while you may not always cash, when you do it much more than makes up for any lost winnings from place bets.

There should be a bumper sticker that says " Real Horseplayers don't bet to Place ".

Look, if somebody has a betting strategy and it ACTUALLY works for them, then who am I, or anyone, to criticize them. However, considering the dramatic difference in what one would make over the long term with a moderately intelligent exacta back-up I do not believe that place bets are the more profitable way to go.

Then there is the extreme horsplayer....Andy Beyer...who could be alive in the last leg of the Pick-6 with three horses and box them in exactas and tris.

That is because they were often racing for second.

Your short term memory needs a little help here Sharon. I wanted Vasa on the ticket and was over-ruled in the group conversation, otherwise we take that whole pool. Hooves will back that up.

There are two Derby opportunities that stand out.

In 2001, my pal Phil, BBQ Bill and I each ponied $40 for a $1 Super Box in the Derby. My rankings on the top contenders were Point Given, Thunder Blitz, Monarchos, Congaree, Jamaican Rum and Invisible Ink. Left Ink off the play in favor of Jamaican Rum. Those were the top 6 finishers. Super paid $64,000.

Derby 2005, older Derby Trail readers know my top 4 ranked contenders were Bellamy Rd., High Fly, Afleet Alex and Closing Argument with Giacomo as the #1 Longshot Candidate. Keyed both Bellamy and High Fly over the other four in tri's instead of the usual box. Tri paid, what?, $112,000? Had Giacomo across the board and Closing Argument PL-SH though, so it wasn't totally depressing, but it wasn't a record trifecta payout either...

Biggest hits were Derby '95, BC '01 and the Four Star Dave the year Dr. Kashnikow won with Tubrok second.

Why is the topic Closest, and everyone is talking about the BANGS??

Anyway, I've been close allot

the breeders cup where ghostzapper won.. I bought a pick4 ticket.. ouija board -all - all - ghostzapper. cancelled the ticket. and played ouija board - all - kitten joy - all .. of course KJ lost.. the original ticket paid 46,791.20 for $2

This past BC as well...Distaff....this was best bet I never placed....I remember saying on this board that Round Pond, Happy Ticket, and Balletto are locks if all are 100% and trips are ok...well I never thought there would be 2 breakdowns, but I don't think that would have mattered. Well long story short, my pc had crashed, so I was going to have to go to the otb to bet, but I also had to juggle that with our annual Breeder's Cup get together we have. I ended up getting wrapped up in something around the house and didn't go to make my bets....$1 tri paid $4,400 and change. Kev called me as soon as the race was over and I can't recall what I said but it was something that I'm sure Steve would send me to the DT penalty box if I repeated....:o

Had a horse I owned that I'd claimed for $C5k. He'd won two races after I claimed him then he went sour, didn't hit the board in 4 or 5 races and was beaten everytime by over 20.

Gave him 60 days off, then 60 more to train back to a race. On paper his form looked terrible coming off the layoff. In the paddock, my trainer just looked at me and for the first time ever, said "He's ready to go".

Usually don't bet my horses but played a little over $100 of tri's and ex's. He went off 14-1. Hit with a Lake horse and a Capuano horse underneath and walked out with over $6k in my pocket.

Turned around and ran him two weeks later in the 9f Old Man Winter at Philly Park. Hammered him again in the tri's with two of Lake's horses and walked out of there with over $10k.

Used the cash to buy another horse - spent what was left in about 6 months training/feeding his sorry, slow......

Plain and simple, back on the ESPN boards for the 2004 BC contest we had. I went to Portland Meadows and played win bets and few tris on the races there.

For our contest, and for my win bets, I had the late pick-4, which included Wilko and Better Talk Now as my top choices. Sadly. I didn't play pick-X bets often then that day, except my mom and I took a stab at the pick-6.

We had the late four on our pick-6 ticket after missing the first two, and no pick-4 to show for it, which would have paid in the neighborhood of $50K.

And then once at Arlington, I was alive to one horse in the 10th on a late pick-4 that would have paid something in the ballpark of $9K, and it ran third.

Ho-hum.

AHHHHHH! THE SAME BET AS ME!

Hedge? I was serious. I have seen him do it.

They don't bet to place, and they surely don't bet to show. (The elderly blue hair ladies at the track bet to show.)

The bet, in this instance, as quoted I believe was $50w/p on one's longshot. Let's say, you bet your longshot in a straight exacta to run second behind the chalk. $100.00 straight exacta bet, not changing the amount of money wagered. This is difficult for many, but one has a really nice exacta many times. In the case of your $50 place money coming in, its paltry next to the exacta, and one doesn't have to hit many of these to make up for their longshot running second.

Last year's Ky Oaks day.

Got to CD with about 8 MTP for the 5th with the intention of playing the P6, got shut out because the teller was incompetent and had to start over and they opened the gates while we were trying again.

Needless to say... it would have been the only winning ticket for about $180k.

Thankfully, all wasn't lost... the P4 still paid a healthy $7.5k.

I was grooming Itsallgreektome when he was a 3yo making his grass debut in the Will Rogers on Ky Derby Day 1990. He was 30-1 ml and i was playing the huge carryover 1mill and singling him on a $488 tik with a buddy of mine. Needless to say he backed out on my tik and i ended up shortening my tik. After Greek won at 50-1 i was alive to the 4th leg but missed on a horse i removed. The last leg won and i got 5 out of 6 for like 3k x3... Nobody hit the 6 that day..I made out good with the conso's, but that day haunts me...

Pardon my naivete, but you know, the entire concept of not betting place as opposed to playing the exacta makes sense, conceptually, to me. However, often, for me, not having as much conviction and not being as confident in the exacta selection causes me to make the place bet instead of the exacta. Simpy put, I might be more confident in being able to pick a horse for place (one correct selection vis a vis the bet, who can run first or second) vs. betting the exacta (requiring me to select two correct selections vis a vis the bet, where they have to finish 1-2). I am not sure if that's correct or makes sense to most of the serious players here, but that is kind of my gut feeling.

Does that make any sense or am I being a whimp here?

Also, doesn't the relative size of the bet, risk/reward also play a role? Meaning if I am looking at $100 place (maybe as a hedge), am I also looking at a $100 exacta? Not really, right?

Thanks for the advice.

Eric

ELA, I'm sorry I didn't come back to your question sooner.

You're right this is not a bet for everyone. Nor is it a matter of being a wimp. This, to the casual player, takes a whole lotta guts. On the other hand, for the pro, (and I'm not) this is common play, as they don't bet to place, ever. In this case, no, you don't make a place bet at all. Instead, you play, YOUR horse, straight, underneath the postime public choice for $100.

There are many occasions that this bet is not feasible, as there is no clear cut public choice at postime.

This is nuts. The whole basic problem with your strategy is that you assume the favorite will win if your longshot runs second. Huh, you are betting a lonshot b/c you think the favorite is vulnerable. So your favorite runs off the board, boosting the place price and you get nothing to show for it b/c that's the only horse you used on top. That is not how to use an exacta as a hedge.

Don't assume... you know what they say about assume "it makes an ass out of U and ME."

There's no whole basic problem with my strategy. Possibly go back and read what I wrote to ELA.

I am believing the chalk will outrun the longshot, as that is usually the result, day in, day out. That is why I put my longshot choice under the chalk on a straight exacta bet.

I've not said anything about the favorite being vulnerable. Not a word. And to box, as I stated as an option, that is not suitable to betting them straight, for $100.

The discussion was about place betting, and regarding longshot play.

I read your posts, I know where you stand. You are clear. And I said nothing about boxing an exacta. You believe that the right play is to put the favorite on top of the longshot rather than betting that horse to place. I get it. It makes zero sense, but go right ahead.

RS, go and take a look at today's result in Gulfstream's 6th race. The longshot ran second, behind the chalk. The chalk's odds were 1.50/1, the longshot's, 18.40/1. The $1. exacta paid $22.50. The place on the longshot paid $12.40 for $2.

Ok, you tell me which is gonna net you more, that $22.50 exacta played straight? Or that $12.40 place ticket? Now keep in mind too, you also lost the $50. you bet on him to win.

I'm not sure I would suggest blindly using the favorite on top ONLY, but I once learned a valuable lesson from one of the game's greatest bettors. If you like a horse who's a big price, and your not thrilled with the favorite, but the exacta with the favorite on top of your horse is paying around $40, you must use that favorite on top for a significant portion of your play, as the favorite isn't whatever short price he is, but the key to $40 if your pick is good.

You just don't get it. 9th Race on Sunday at GP, the place horse was 15-1 and ran second to a 9-1 shot. Instead of getting nothing back, you would've tripled your initial investment with a win/place bet(12.80). If you had done it your way you get nothing....If the favorite wins at a 30% clip on average you will lose over time. You can cite whatever race you want, and I'll find 4 that show that using a simple exacta with a favorite or a wheel for that matter is dumb.

I was 5 for 5 in that huge Fairplex pick six in 2006 and had two horses in the last leg and ran 2nd and 3rd, lost to a horse that I mentioned and to a Los Al rider I have made a killing on wagering. Cost me, another $128 and I have 70k

And I will see far less 15/1 with 9/1 exactas, than I'll see 1/1 (or 2/1) with 18/1 exactas.

No, I do see. And I'm talking over time. And the person that taught me this has been betting on horses for over 45 years, and I figure he knows far more.

Yes, if instant gratification isn't your thing, this is definitely the way it is taught.

And no Andy, not blindly, as I said before, there are many occasions that there is no clear favorite.