Derby Trail Forums - Thoro-Graph

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Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

"3) Some people use it for 'number' power which is fine, but you become REAL good when you use it for 'pattern' power. When you can start predicting a 'top' is when you start hitting some good tickets, and some great exactas"

By the same token, you can also predict bounces or poor races based on identifying patterns you don't like. 2 examples from Saturday at Gulfstream:
Race 1, #1 Complex Goals, recent pattern was 6 (top), 11 and 8..for me the 8 was too close to the top (6), while not getting back to it, making this an unhealthy pattern.
Race 5, #6 British Attitude, recent pattern, 5, 5, then 2 (top), 2 was a 3 point top on turf, thought the horse would bounce off that number.

Now these are 2 examples that I was correct about.. many more that I was incorrecton (Stormy Ray@#@#), but we won't discuss them, although I would like to ask a question about Vicarian in the 4th race. Scav, did you have the TG's for Saturday? This is a horse I absolutely loved... his strange bolting of the turn RUINED my day. Any thoughts?

Stormy Ray really pissed me off this weekend, that race was nutty, F'n Douglas just went nuts after getting smoked on DOA. GOD DAMN OMAGGIO JUST LOVES TO BURN MY MONEY. I had the TG's this weekend. I actually tossed Vicarian and had Zito's horses (although i didn't like the 1a, I liked the 1) and I had Pletchers firster (sucked in there)(got real lucky in this race as I should have known better on Zito's 1 horse, who ran hard in his first race out on the stretch out). the whole bounce thing is very subjective. I know one very good handicapper that swears it is BS but then you look at TG's and the 0-2=x is a pretty solid angle, especially in dirt racing and quick timing.

Explain

Quote:

Race 1, #1 Complex Goals, recent pattern was 6 (top), 11 and 8..for me the 8 was too close to the top (6), while not getting back to it, making this an unhealthy pattern.

Was the pattern reading 6,11,8 as last race to first race or 8,11,6 as the 8 was his last race?

Three back was the top 6, two back was the 11, and his last race before Saturday was the 8.

The reason I liked Vicarion so much was that his most recent race, a 5, came attempting to close at 7 furlongs, 3 wide the whole race, very much against the bias. I thought 4 weeks rest was enough to overcome the effort, and with the trip he was getting (before he bolted!), I thought he was going to run off the screen, which he ended up doing at the turn. The 1a's debut race was a 12 or 13, which means he needed to jump up big time, or others would have had to regress (which happened, I don't know).

yeah, i was camera shy, just like some of my horses :)

anyways, thanks - esp scav and golf

that was valuable info, and definately what i was wondering. i'll keep lurking here and check out their website in more detail.

So the pattern read

----8
------11
-6

Depending on the timing, it could be construed either way. In some cases I would have thought she would have busted through that 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

Seriously man, REDBOARD ROOM, get on it as I expect you to be nailing races with more consistency, starting the Arlington meet

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

So the pattern read

----8
------11
-6

Depending on the timing, it could be construed either way. In some cases I would have thought she would have busted through that 6

Exactly right, I used the Thoro-pattern stats (over 75 percent to run an off or x race), plus this is just a pattern that I've seen so many times recently, I never look at it positively, just lately I've begun to look at it negatively.
Of course, had he been 15-1 instead of one of the favorites... I might have seen it differently.

2 things I've learned recently, #'s versus odds, if the odds are right, many patterns can look "good", and don't key a horse off an "effort" with less than 3 weeks rest (this one came from the Len Freidman, sorry JB).

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

I don't want to diss Freidman, fact is that I have heard many stories how the guy is just one of the best handicappers of all time, I heard this from of all people, a thorograph person. From what I have seen, that goes into those numbers, some of Freidman's numbers are skewed pretty heavily (The most recent one I remember was that El Prado horse (greely was the trainer) that ran huge race at Belmont two years ago, right before the BC) Comparing Rags vs TG in that specific horse was downright sickening and TG's number was alot more solid of a number in my opinion. I have heard that TG's are roughly 2-4 pts faster then Rags, this was about 9 points, if I remember correctly

I am an avid reader of both boards, Freidman posts his picks (and reasoning) for certain races every now and then. Jerry doesn't because he is selling the analysis (absolutely nothing wrong with this, but it does tend to limit pre-race discussions on the TG board). Which is why it is so great we can have those discussions here, with Steve and others. I started off using Rags in the mid 90's (bought them at the Meadowlands).. switched to TG's due to their customer friendly web-site and attitude. I have followed all of Jerry's statements about figure making and the difference between him and Ragozin.. what he says makes sense!

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Yeah, I think his accessibity is a great thing. That alone helps his product as the guy that CREATES THEM and 'touts' them is there and available. I don't know much about Len and more so about the Len vs JB feud, but it is pretty darn comical at times. I wish Len would actually debate it but he is afraid IMO. I might be wrong about this though.