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-   -   Nobiz takes lead in Dispatch Derby Poll (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9575)

Cajungator26 02-06-2007 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
Didn't FuPeg end the RAN curse? Like Funny Cide ended the gelding curse? Now, we need to find someone to end the Juvie Jinx, and it ain't gonna be Street Sense.
No, FuPeg didn't end the curse, but Barbaro did. I was halfway joking... Scat Daddy has the RAN curse as well.

The RAN curse is when the horse has Raise A Native in the dam's sire line. FuPeg has Raise A Native in his sire's sire line.

Kasept 02-06-2007 04:12 PM
Don't know if I'm supposed to release my ballot, but on the left is my Top 20 this week followed by the total-final... (I actually forgot Day Pass in my 20 accidently..)


MY BALLOT/FINAL TALLY

HARD SPUN 1 Nobiz Like Shobiz (10)
NOBIZ 2 Street Sense (3)
ADORE THE GOLD 3 Hard Spun (1)
NOTIONAL 4 Ravel
RAVEL 5 Circular Quay
STORM IN MAY 6 Great Hunter (1)
BELGRAVIA 7 Any Given Saturday (2)
MINEFIELD 8 Notional
LIQUIDITY 9 Stormello
GREAT HUNTER 10 Liquidity
C P West 11 Adore The Gold
EXHALE 12 Exhale
BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD13 Birdbirdistheword (1)
STORMELLO 14 Day Pass
CIRCULAR QUAY 15 Drums Of Thunder
CURLIN 16 Belgravia
TIAGO 17 Scat Daddy
DRUMS OF THUNDER 18 Lawrence The Roman
CAME TO PASS T-19 E Z Warrior
ARCATA T-19 Spin Master

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-06-2007 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Don't know if I'm supposed to release my ballot, but on the left is my Top 20 this week followed by the total-final... (I actually forgot Day Pass in my 20 accidently..)


MY BALLOT/FINAL TALLY

HARD SPUN 1 Nobiz Like Shobiz (10)
NOBIZ 2 Street Sense (3)
ADORE THE GOLD 3 Hard Spun (1)
NOTIONAL 4 Ravel
RAVEL 5 Circular Quay
STORM IN MAY 6 Great Hunter (1)
BELGRAVIA 7 Any Given Saturday (2)
MINEFIELD 8 Notional
LIQUIDITY 9 Stormello
GREAT HUNTER 10 Liquidity
C P West 11 Adore The Gold
EXHALE 12 Exhale
BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD13 Birdbirdistheword (1)
STORMELLO 14 Day Pass
CIRCULAR QUAY 15 Drums Of Thunder
CURLIN 16 Belgravia
TIAGO 17 Scat Daddy
DRUMS OF THUNDER 18 Lawrence The Roman
CAME TO PASS T-19 E Z Warrior
ARCATA T-19 Spin Master
Kinda like this Sheriff's runner, needs to break maiden real soon though!

The Indomitable DrugS 02-06-2007 04:25 PM
He broke his maiden last time....via DQ.

IMO, he could develop into a very solid horse....he's just not KY Derby material though.

brianwspencer 02-06-2007 04:30 PM
No Street Sense anywhere, Steve?

I do like though, that you got Storm in May up there -- he looked really nice at GP....I'd like to see him around again soon.

Kasept 02-06-2007 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
No Street Sense anywhere, Steve?

I do like though, that you got Storm in May up there -- he looked really nice at GP....I'd like to see him around again soon.
Street Sense off the list for now until he runs.. Any Given Saturday isn't for me until I see him at 3.. Scat Daddy was never for me..

zippyneedsawin 02-06-2007 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Don't know if I'm supposed to release my ballot, but on the left is my Top 20 this week followed by the total-final... (I actually forgot Day Pass in my 20 accidently..)


MY BALLOT/FINAL TALLY

HARD SPUN 1 Nobiz Like Shobiz (10)
NOBIZ 2 Street Sense (3)
ADORE THE GOLD 3 Hard Spun (1)
NOTIONAL 4 Ravel
RAVEL 5 Circular Quay
STORM IN MAY 6 Great Hunter (1)
BELGRAVIA 7 Any Given Saturday (2)
MINEFIELD 8 Notional
LIQUIDITY 9 Stormello
GREAT HUNTER 10 Liquidity
C P West 11 Adore The Gold
EXHALE 12 Exhale
BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD13 Birdbirdistheword (1)
STORMELLO 14 Day Pass
CIRCULAR QUAY 15 Drums Of Thunder
CURLIN 16 Belgravia
TIAGO 17 Scat Daddy
DRUMS OF THUNDER 18 Lawrence The Roman
CAME TO PASS T-19 E Z Warrior
ARCATA T-19 Spin Master


I'm guessing you're not putting much weight on what this class did as 2YO's. I'm not versed enough on many of these to put a top 20 list together, but I think I'd have many of the same... maybe not the same(similar) order though! Hard Spun has to prove himself (to me) in his next race before I put him very high.

slotdirt 02-06-2007 04:47 PM
I was wondering who the (1) beside Hard Spun's name was. Well done, Steve.

Kasept 02-06-2007 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
Hard Spun has to prove himself (to me) in his next race before I put him very high.
Zip,

That's interesting because to me, Hard Spun has been the most impressive of the colts that have run at three, has 2yo foundation/substance and upside yet.. I think he's the best thing out there by a wide margin.

2 year old form is increasingly meaningless to me as a Derby indicator other than getting at least 2-3 starts in...

slotdirt 02-06-2007 04:53 PM
Don't know this off the top of my nog, but has Danzig ever had a Derby winner? I know he had a Belmont winner at least.

Kasept 02-06-2007 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
Don't know this off the top of my nog, but has Danzig ever had a Derby winner? I know he had a Belmont winner at least.
No Derby winners for Danzig.. yet. But a great progeny record in the Classics...

Danzig's Classic runners...

Danzig CHIEF'S CROWN 1985 (3rd-2nd-3rd)
Danzig WAR CHANT 2000 (9th-X-X)
Danzig DANZIG CONNECTION 1986 (X-X-1st)
Danzig PINE BLUFF 1992 (5th-1st-3rd)
Danzig EXCHANGE RATE 2000 (12th-X-X)
Danzig HONOR GRADES 1991 (X-8th-X)
Danzig STEPHAN'S ODYSSEY 1985 (2nd-X-2nd)

RECORD: 12/2-3-3

zippyneedsawin 02-06-2007 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Zip,

That's interesting because to me, Hard Spun has been the most impressive of the colts that have run at three, has 2yo foundation/substance and upside yet.. I think he's the best thing out there by a wide margin.

2 year old form is increasingly meaningless to me as a Derby indicator other than getting at least 2-3 starts in...

You certainly make a good argument for him, and I agree there's plenty of upside for this colt. I guess it's like the criticism some had for Smarty a few years ago.. I want to see him do the same to tougher competition that he's done already. ( funny thing is, I really liked Smarty by this point of the season, so you'd think I'd be the same for this guy) One more good race for me, then I'll be sold.

slotdirt 02-06-2007 05:09 PM
Obviously, Hard Spun also has the RAN curse if you believe that sort of mombo-jombo.

philcski 02-06-2007 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Don't know if I'm supposed to release my ballot, but on the left is my Top 20 this week followed by the total-final... (I actually forgot Day Pass in my 20 accidently..)


MY BALLOT/FINAL TALLY

HARD SPUN 1 Nobiz Like Shobiz (10)
NOBIZ 2 Street Sense (3)
ADORE THE GOLD 3 Hard Spun (1)
NOTIONAL 4 Ravel
RAVEL 5 Circular Quay
STORM IN MAY 6 Great Hunter (1)
BELGRAVIA 7 Any Given Saturday (2)
MINEFIELD 8 Notional
LIQUIDITY 9 Stormello
GREAT HUNTER 10 Liquidity
C P West 11 Adore The Gold
EXHALE 12 Exhale
BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD13 Birdbirdistheword (1)
STORMELLO 14 Day Pass
CIRCULAR QUAY 15 Drums Of Thunder
CURLIN 16 Belgravia
TIAGO 17 Scat Daddy
DRUMS OF THUNDER 18 Lawrence The Roman
CAME TO PASS T-19 E Z Warrior
ARCATA T-19 Spin Master
My #1&2 are the same as yours right now. Hard Spun is the goods, and Nobiz is the most proven.

Day Pass is an interesting case- I have reservations he'll handle two turns with ease. Talent wise he's right there if he does, his Nashua, off only a 5.5F maiden race, was awfully impressive.

Kasept 02-06-2007 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
Obviously, Hard Spun also has the RAN curse if you believe that sort of mombo-jombo.
As did Barbaro..

slotdirt 02-06-2007 05:22 PM
'Tis the truth.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-06-2007 06:06 PM
Storm In May would really shock me.

peddler 02-06-2007 06:17 PM
Steve

Nice to see your vote for CP West. He is my sleeper but seems to be behind. thought I read somewhere that Zito not at all sure if he will go on trail. Thought his Futurity was impressive for only second career start and injured himself in BC Juvenile in which I really liked him. Storm in May might be wise guy horse as he overcame bias to win at GP, even though fractions in race were suicidal. STill two horses on lead through those fractions ran second and third. But doubt he will be part of picture come first Saturday in May

The Indomitable DrugS 02-06-2007 06:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joekelly526
Storm in May might be wise guy horse as he overcame bias to win at GP, even though fractions in race were suicidal. STill two horses on lead through those fractions ran second and third.
There was no bias that day at all.....several horses made up signifcant ground with wide rallies--including a 64/1 shot winner.

And while Idiot Proof and Texas Voyager (by far the two best horses in the race) did survive the pace to finish 2nd and 3rd.....the 4th and 5th place finishers raced 14th and 13th (last and 2nd to last) after the 1st pace call

Idiot Proof is obviously no Derby horse...but his debut was very exciting visually, and he ran his eyes that day. He could be a very exciting sprinter.

peddler 02-06-2007 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
There was no bias that day at all.....several horses made up signifcant ground with wide rallies--including a 64/1 shot winner.

And while Idiot Proof and Texas Voyager (by far the two best horses in the race) did survive the pace to finish 2nd and 3rd.....the 4th and 5th place finishers raced 14th and 13th (last and 2nd to last) after the 1st pace call

Idiot Proof is obviously no Derby horse...but his debut was very exciting visually, and he ran his eyes that day. He could be a very exciting sprinter.
No bias at all? Maybe maybe not but still believe Storm in May will be over used as wise guy horse due to his finish.


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