Derby Trail Forums - Beyers..... I Just Dont Understand Them

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

None of that really explains why you think the figure is wrong.

How about this then: The figure sticks out like a turd in a punchbowl in his PPs. I don't think he's capable of running a race that gets credited with a 109 beyer.

What did he get in the Super Derby?

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

How about this then: The figure sticks out like a turd in a punchbowl in his PPs. I don't think he's capable of running a race that gets credited with a 109 beyer.

a turd in a punchbowl....hold on, i'm writing this down for future reference...

as for the fig--many horses have run a hole in the wind once. oftentimes they fail to back it up. doesn't mean that one high figure is incorrect. they just couldn't duplicate it.

Did I just read that he got a 107 in the Super Derby? I might just stand corrected. I do still think that the figs are becoming more and more subjective these days though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i will give a few examples of why i dont understand them, and why i think they are totally irrelavant in chosing a horse to wager on..

invasor goes 1 1/4 in 2:02 in the bcc and gets a 116 beyer
discreet cat goes 1 mile in 1:32.2 and gets a 116 beyer

now invasor time for that distance is solid, nothing special though
discreet cat sets a track record and is almost in hand the whole race ...
so how do they both get 116, how dosent discreet cat get something like a 125 beyer ? i just dont understand them.

strong contender in the dwyer last year goes 1 1/16 in 1:45.1 ... now that time does not even have to be considered good that can be considered a slow time he gets a huge beyer of 109, horses go that same distance in 1:42 and dont even get 100 beyer's

i know what track and what distance has something to do with it, but it just dosent make since to me and there are so many other examples i could give.

Buy Andy's book"Picking Winners"and read chapters 7,8,and 9.It should help you out a ton.

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

You gotta get over the unadjusted times. The value of figures is knowing when that 1 1/16 race run in 1:45 is faster than the race run a week later in 1:43 1/5. The point of Beyers, or any other figures, is to take the speed of the surface into the equation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

Sinister Minister at Keeneland last spring comes to mind. i don't expect he'll ever equal that performance.

Sinister Minister's race came over a very speed biased racetrack, that had yielded one wire-to-wire blowout winner after another, in route races, all week long.

One of the horses who were totally drowned came back to run 2nd in the Kentucky Derby three weeks later. Another, SC, won the Dwyer and Super Derby. The figure was accurate that day---the fluky performance by the winner was a direct result of the speed biased nature of the track.

I don't think I ever want to drink punch again. Maybe I'll use a strainer when I pour it in the glass.