The Lane's End is 3/24 and the Blue Grass 4/14 so that gives three weeks in between which is certainly possible if they want to go that route. The Risen Star is going to be loaded if CQ shows up.

Hard Spun and a couple sleeper Derby horses I like in Grasshopper and Zanjero. I was thinking Makeithapencaptain too but after his effort yesterday he hardly improves the race if he goes.

I think he may go in the Risen Star first but not sure. Any word on where Tiz Wonderful, Great Hunter, and Any Given Saturday are going this year? I know O'Neill said yesterday he was going to seperate Notional and Great Hunter so at least one should come east.

From Oaklawn's web site:


HARD SPUN ROMPS TO LECOMTE VICTORY ON SATURDAY
Undefeated Hard Spun, stabled at Oaklawn, travelled to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans for Saturday's featured $100,000 Lecomte Stakes and drew clear to an easy victory in the one mile event for three-year-olds.

The early favorite for the Arkansas Derby took command from the outset in the Lecomte under jockey Mario Pino and maintained the lead by nearly a length all the way to the head of the stretch.

Jockey Pino then asked the even-money favorite to finish up well and the bay son of Danzig drew clear from the field for his convincing win. Izzie's Halo, twice stakes-placed for trainer Tom Amoss, outlasted the six rivals for he place spot, while Sugar Bowl Stakes winner Teuflesberg, the second chice at 7-2, had no punch in the stretch and finished a distant third.

Racing in the silks of Fox Hill Farm, owner of previous Oaklawn stars Rockport Harbor and Round Pond, Hard Spun was taking his career record to four wins from four starts and his earnings to $160,970. Trainer Larry Jones has indicated that the next stop on the Triple Crown trail for Hard Spun will be the $250,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Presidents' Day, Monday, February 19.

5F Oaklawn
Tiz Wonderful 1/6/2007 Dirt GD B 1:07.00

Looks like Notional might be pointed to the Arkansas Derby and Great Hunter will stay west for the Robert Lewis (formerly Santa Catalina).

Yeah, I kinda hope he fails anyways since I think that Mile was about his limit distance wise and he could be a very nice sprinter if not ruined in the Derby.

yeah, i saw he mentioned the la derby....hope he changes his mind.

Hes taking the right route. Why stay at Oaklawn and get your head chopped off by Westwon

i just wanted to take a second to thank danzig188 and miraja2 for actually providing us with an interesting discussion about a derby contender they like without making any absurd predictions or declarations.
in this instance, i actually disagree with your analysis, because to me hard spun doesn't move in a way that makes me think he will be strong going 9+ furlongs against true g1/g2 competition. but regardless who is right, the colt is 4 for 4 so i can't blame you for liking him, but mainly i just appreciate your rational discussion, and most of all, your restraint.

Visually impressive.

However the allowance types did the 1m40yds in 1:39+ -- Hard Spun was 1:37 and change for the mile. Nothing riveting but it's only January. Decent pace and ran out well.

The bigger concern is that he looks to be a "need the lead" type and that's unlikely to change by Derby.

His Beyer came back somewhere in the 90 range.

I don't know about "needing the lead", nothing to me indicated that he was rank up there and he had a cool head about him. He's got a good way of going too, sort of glides across the ground.

He's a solid horse. "Need the lead" types aren't necessarily rank -- and I didn't mean to imply that. Rather, he's going to the front and with other similar types in the field a race could set up for him to burn. In all his races he went to the front. Maybe he didn't need to rate because he was so superior. As he meets better competition and other horses improve his running style might go against him at 10 furlongs or even shorter distances.

I might actually be looking to bet against him if the right race comes up.

I wonder what figure Beyer gave the allowance horses who went 1m40yds in 1:39 and change?

At least it looks like he will be facing a horse of quality (although of a completely different running style) in Circular Quay soon. Should be interesting to see how that race shapes up.

Piety got a 97

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

you're welcome!

i try not to get too up on these guys. too big a letdown when they can't sustain the pace we always set for them.

it's always interesting from now til may. some people back one horse come hell or high water. some bounce from horse to horse after each prep is run. always fun!!