Derby Trail Forums - Ok, ONE last time

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes, yes, yes. My whole reason for being highly cautious of Pik bets, which I went to war with Oracle and Scuds on and no one understood. In fact most people backed them because after all, its Oracle and Scuds, not a minor league poster like myself.

Kurt. If the track gave you Pik combination odds, like the Win odds on the tote board do, then you would know that a lot of people had/have a ticket just like yours. Ex. If a horse is even odds to win, you know a lot of people have bet on your horse. But you do not know how many people hold tickets on pik bets that are the same as yours, therefore you do not know what the payout will be. Reguardless of what the pool size says. It does not matter because you dont know how many people hold winning tickets. You do know that a lot of money is on a horse that is even odds with a straight up win bet because the tote board tells you. There is no pik combination tote board until a number of races composing that pik bet are in.

Now after dissing pik bets, I will say they are highly entertaining. They are much more fun to try and figure out where you go deep etc... based on what the rest of the public might do. Getting the best bang for your buck by building a good ticket, while at the same time avoiding the massive number of public tickets that might be a winner, but are not worth the risk. This is why I find pik bets interesting.

Even though I like the p3 bets,I have noticed that some of the tracks are a waste of time to play them at.I think I looked at Zia Park one time,and they were almost always under the parlay.Turfway certainly has problems with them.Anita's pick 3's can be diseased.It doesn't happen as much (or as badly ) as it happens at some of the smaller tracks. Overall,the p4 is less apt to pay under the win parlay,and is more apt to pay way over what it should.We have had 2 days of racing at Anita,and on both days,the late p3 was under what it should be,and the p4 was way over what it should be.The late p4 yesterday should have paid what? 8k?? It paid over 22k?? I know what PGRDN'S POINT IS,but I got $5800 for a pick 3 with a win parlay of $1800.So it is a tough sell.I would like to get a lot more info on trends of the tracks though.I do think playing the Turfway/Zia park/Sunland ETC. is pretty much like THE WILD,WILD WEST.Like I said,try to favor the p4 over the p3.The p4 seems to be less apt to be as f'd up.

Well, I don't ever see me hitting that parlay in the second scenario. But I could easily play value like that in a P3, and others could as well. I guess that's why it's below the parlay amount.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

While I respect your math. The only time a 3 race parlay is comparable to a pk 3 is when you make a straight pk3. Because most pk 3 and 4 players widen there ticket to include some tomake iut a nice play. As an example I hit one at Bel in the last meet with 3 horses that were about 5/1 and spent $18 it paid 3,800. A example and not the norm but this is the chance you take. No way would I have taken the approximately 200 and put it on the nose of the 3rd leg but I invested the 18 in the pk 3. This is what helps make the races great, the many cobos you can come up with in wagering.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

I understand that. But this assumes you are going to bet on 3 races or 4 races in a row and that is a horrible assumption as I said to scuds and Oracle. If you have to bet on 3 or 4 races in a row, then go the pik route. But the huge assumption you are making is by comparing a pik to a parlay. Thats a false comparison. A pik bet is ONE bet. Not everyone wants to bet 3 or 4 races in a row separately and if they do, the pik is the way to go. I went thru a list of about 5 reasons concerning pik bets, and I finally got Oracle to agree. I guess the word touche means I see your point in his parlance. And I think Scuds might have seen what I saying. There is more, I only gave one point above... but I just got real tired of repeating myself over and over with the others.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

With the computer tech now available, I feel that the tracks have the capability to display the number of live tickets available on various legs of pk3-3 and sixes. If this was available it would help eliminat a scam,shuch as the 1 we had at the BC a few years back. Someone couldnt sudenly have a live pk6 after the 4th race.

But you could never get a screen big enough to look thru all the possible combinations and the beginning of a pik bet to assess risk v. reward to begin with. Unless you had 3, three horse races in a row in a pik 3. (Imagine the huge payoff in that horrible scenario)

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

I am refering to just the number of tickets that are live. Not the differnt combinationsthat are remaining in the upcomming legs Im not asking for them to give all the combination and probable pays , just the number of live tickets after each leg of pk 3,4 and 6.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

I guess you would really want the amount of money that is alive, not the number of tickets. That way you could compare it to the original pool and have a better idea of what the payoff would be. That definitely could be done. The last leg of a pik usually has the estimated payoff (ie live money before the last leg but after the other results are known), at least at the track I frequent.

My original point was that you still have no idea where you are when you first bet and no race has been run. If it was possible to get a number on your odds before you make the pik bet, that would be the best. But I really dont know how that could be done.