| bellsbendboy |
12-21-2006 10:15 PM |
Shadowroll After my most recent post, it is with some trepidation that I again wade into these waters, but I have an solid opinion here and posess a thick skin. You seemed sincere with your second post, so here goes. I would recommend a two pronged approach, one geographical, the other pragmatic.
My two cents says, playing the major tracks on either coast would quickly end your quest. The intrarace, vertical plays would be few and far between and heavily taxed*, and the horizontal bets ( pick threes, fours etc.) would prove too expensive. That is, no matter what you spent, you would be a small fish in a very big pool. Logic dictates a move to the midwest!
Welcome to the land of Churchill Downs, Arlington Park, Keeneland, Oaklawn and the Fairgrounds. This arena contains contentious full fields, at least fifty trainers with twenty year careers, excellent main tracks and challenging turf configurations. A year round playground brimming with opportunity and mostly void of the big money wiseguys, whose capital is an ongoing, distinct threat to your bankroll. Case closed.
Practicality requires selecting a pool and the pick four is an easy decision. I would guess the average $1 pick four for these tracks approaches $3,000.
When I posted my earnings the other day, a few forumites, who do not know me from Adam, were flabbergasted and disputed my claims. None, did the five minutes or so of research, that would have convinced them that my claims were valid. The fact that the bets were all posted on a nationwide forum did little to sway their opinion. They did not take into account, in fact a few strongly disputed, that I am a damn good capper. But the point here is ; the math eluded them.
For instance, assume you bet forty pick 4's each year, at a cost of fifty bucks apiece. Two grand. Further agree to spend a few days 'cappin these wagers improving your skills, working on your weaknesses etc. Next assume a ticket structured as (4 x 2 x 3 x 2 ) and you, choose the combinations.
Assuming eight horse fields a novice capper, a group which almost of the naysayers fell into, empirically, should hit the pick 4 about ten percent of the time. That is, 4096 combinations and you have covered 48 of them.
The cash outlay is two grand. A pathetic one win a year hit rate, returns on average $3,000. Two winning pick four tickets yields $6,000. A ten percent hit rate, four winning pick four tickets nets some $12,000. You get the picture!
Personally I have no problem with the discipline angle; ninety some percent of my wagers is on pick 4's, all posted. The challenge is working on your game everyday, being disciplined, having a modicum of talent and realizing there is always someone who knows something that will help you down the road. It is a challenging, ever changing hobby for me, but beware ; I get better everyday. Hope this helps. BBB
*For instance, a trifecta or vertical bet is taxed each race, whereas a pick four is taxed once for the sequence!
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