Final odds were 4/5 but you were wise not to bet against him.

One note on Tenfold, but it looks like he got stuck between two horses converging early, got pinched a bit, and had to awkwardly pull out and duck inside. Granted, I think that had little impact on the results and I’m not sure if the horses even touched. Maybe talking about him 3rd or 4th instead of 5th, if he improved at all which is debatable. Still, probably a bad move by the jockey to try to out sprint Noble Indy and Restoring Hope.

Not betting against Justify saved me some money, but it doesn't necessarily mean it was 'wise'.

If fact, my thinking/posting was somewhat fuzzy. I wanted to bet against Justify if there was, IMO, too much money bet on him. I was writing "1-1" odds as my threshold for 'too much money'. I should have been using '50% of the win pool' as my threshold. And 50% of the win pool equates to 3-5 odds.

My original gut feeling was that Justify had something like a 33%-40% chance to win. But when I made a line, I came up with a 45% chance to win. Granted, I gave Justify every benefit of doubt, since I was primarily interested in betting against him. With Justify taking just 45% of the actual win pool, right in line with my own estimate, none of the other horses' odds looked attractive. Tenfold was the closest. I had him at 12-1, and he went off at 10.70-1.

Outstanding M/L redboarding, seriously world-class Monday Quarterbacking stuff

Wow, Freddy, thanks so much for that shrewd observation. Here I thought I was fessing up to some shoddy thinking and writing. Little did I realize that my real goal was to point out that my estimate of Justify's chances, after admittedly slanting them in Justify's favor, lined up with the betting pool.

I'm grateful that you took the time to read it and set me straight.

Biggest red board out here Freddy Mo starring as the pot calling the kettle black on what was a negative red board where he fessed up....