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-   -   11/5: Santa Anita ~ Breeders' Cup Saturday ($511k C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61274)

Jackson 11-05-2016 08:10 PM

What a day, Steve. That's some fantastic handicapping there.
Thanks for all the work you put in this week and always.
J

hondo 11-05-2016 08:43 PM

Another great job by you Steve and a profitable one too... found this site and the radio show 4 years ago. I am only a weekend player since the late 70 's and this experience has added so much to my game and an understanding of this great sport......keep up the great work and thank you so much! :tro:

Kasept 11-06-2016 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy (Post 1081031)
Incredible coverage and effort again Steve! Thank you isn't enough...

Quote:

Originally Posted by bulllea (Post 1081008)
Steve, thanks for all you coverage/efforts on the Breeders Cup this year. Thanks.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Caidy (Post 1081191)
Steve, great week of shows and even better day with the picks. Great job!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jackson (Post 1081193)
What a day, Steve. That's some fantastic handicapping there. Thanks for all the work you put in this week and always.
J

Quote:

Originally Posted by arizonadave (Post 1081194)
Another great job,Steve.Also a great week with the show. Thank you.

Dave, Max, Jax, U/D, bull..

Thanks so much. The very special day was great but I especially appreciate the acknowledgement of the show and it's information. The guests delivered virtually every interesting winner and key underneaths including Nick Luck's brilliant assessment of Queen's Trust, Peter Eurton & Mark Casse's updates on Champagne Room and Classic Empire (and Valadorna), NTamm.Hammer/DeRosa on Tamarkuz, plus strong pushes on Tourist, Finest City and Om. Even Ken Ramsey's visit helped focus on Oscar Performance and Kitten's Cat.

Hope everyone got something they used to their benefit over the weekend and enjoyed Cup!

Steve

Kasept 11-06-2016 07:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADJMK (Post 1081151)
Congrats. I guess your shows on vacation for a month.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADJMK (Post 1081192)
Another $1,000 to the bankroll. Good thing Chrome got beat. Otherwise u were an OHM nose away from the P6. This has to be one of the greatest handicapping jobs on racings most difficult day. All I can say is WOW

Thanks.. Show goes on with recap live from Santa Anita tomorrow.

Not sure why you thought Chrome losing prevented me from the very hard to swallow beat of Om to start the sequence. I went 5 of 6. The photo cost perhaps $350,000-400,000.

Particularly pleased that the $18 'All A' play produced the $1,003 pop as many small bankroll players came along. Hope it made the difference for them on the weekend.

As mentioned above, the show is responsible year after year with helping identify the prime players for these challenging two days. Benefits me as much as the listeners.. Even getting to the winners isn't necessarily a guarantee of connecting all the dots, but the last two years have produced especially strong results.

Hope you did well this weekend.

Kasept 11-06-2016 07:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luv2gambl (Post 1081177)
Great Job Steve. Congrats !!!! Mike

Quote:

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv (Post 1081183)
Great job Steve! :tro:

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBURGH (Post 1081186)
Great Job Steve, thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hondo (Post 1081201)
Another great job by you Steve and a profitable one too... found this site and the radio show 4 years ago. I am only a weekend player since the late 70 's and this experience has added so much to my game and an understanding of this great sport......keep up the great work and thank you so much! :tro:

Guys..

Thanks. And hondo, there's no feedback that means more to me than hearing that the work has brought players into the game, back to the game or given them more pleasure out of the game. That's the core focus of what I'm trying to do.

Steve

Bogey 11-06-2016 11:31 AM

Congrats!!! Awesome work and handicapping.

kingsize14u 11-06-2016 11:36 AM

Great job as usual Steve. I've been listening since the days of JJ & Sam and you were a part time contributor, even before the hurricane knocked you off the air for a while. The show has come a long way since then, in fact it's really a completely different show. Congrats on all the winners you always give out, but i have a request. Someday when you have time explain when and where you protect on your pk4's-5's, such as the first sequence where a "C" pick came in and saved the day with a 27k payout. Perhaps sometime when posting picks you could just add a line such as " substituting this "C" for this "a,b" in race whatever. I am assuming that you had more than 1 pick 5 ticket and did they cost the same? I don't get to the races much nor can I bet on line (Texas) so my handicapping abilities are null and void. I'm looking forward to recap this week and you and all your listeners keep up the good work.

philcski 11-06-2016 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingsize14u (Post 1081231)
Great job as usual Steve. I've been listening since the days of JJ & Sam and you were a part time contributor, even before the hurricane knocked you off the air for a while. The show has come a long way since then, in fact it's really a completely different show. Congrats on all the winners you always give out, but i have a request. Someday when you have time explain when and where you protect on your pk4's-5's, such as the first sequence where a "C" pick came in and saved the day with a 27k payout. Perhaps sometime when posting picks you could just add a line such as " substituting this "C" for this "a,b" in race whatever. I am assuming that you had more than 1 pick 5 ticket and did they cost the same? I don't get to the races much nor can I bet on line (Texas) so my handicapping abilities are null and void. I'm looking forward to recap this week and you and all your listeners keep up the good work.

The standard (Steve Crist) A-B-C multi-ticket approach suggests using all A's (for maybe 3 units), all A's with one B (for maybe 2 units), all A's with 2 B's, and all A's with one C. So for the below:

P5 Grid:

1: 6-10 (A), 1-3-9 (B), 2-4 (C)
2: 4 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)
3: 8-12-13 (A), 4-11 (B), 2-7-9 (C)
4: 3-4-10 (A), - (B), 2-6-7-11 (C)
5: 8-11 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)

AAAAA: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 * 1.5 = $54
BAAAA: 3x1x3x3x2 = 54 * 1 = $54
AABAA: 2x1x2x3x2 = 24 * 1 = $24
CAAAA: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 *.5 = $18
ACAAA: 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 * .5 = $36
AACAA: 2x1x3x3x3 = 54 * .5 = $27
AAACA: 2x1x3x4x3 = 72 * .5 = $36
AAAAC: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 * .5 = $18
BABAA: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 * .5 = $18

Total cost = $275

... which using the above, the AACA ticket came through for a cool $23,700.

philcski 11-06-2016 10:43 PM

Unbelievable handicapping Steve, and hope you found enough time to bet your opinions as there were some monster scores here. The pick 6 miss is brutal for sure, especially when your key thought was turnbacks were the way to go. But to even be that close on BC day with a small ticket is a testament to how good the approach was.

And most of all, incredible coverage all week.

Kasept 11-07-2016 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingsize14u (Post 1081231)
Great job as usual Steve. I've been listening since the days of JJ & Sam and you were a part time contributor, even before the hurricane knocked you off the air for a while. The show has come a long way since then, in fact it's really a completely different show. Congrats on all the winners you always give out, but i have a request. Someday when you have time explain when and where you protect on your pk4's-5's, such as the first sequence where a "C" pick came in and saved the day with a 27k payout. Perhaps sometime when posting picks you could just add a line such as " substituting this "C" for this "a,b" in race whatever. I am assuming that you had more than 1 pick 5 ticket and did they cost the same? I don't get to the races much nor can I bet on line (Texas) so my handicapping abilities are null and void. I'm looking forward to recap this week and you and all your listeners keep up the good work.

KS..

Thanks.. Hope you had a great Cup. I've provided links to Crist A-B-C-X ticketing before and Exotic Betting itself is the best guide...

Intro: http://helloracefans.com/features/le...o-exotic-bets/

Exotic Betting: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/19...6YW3HWK55XCGG2

Phil gives the basic principles above, though you don't really need to weigh ($1.50, $1, .50) tickets on P5's and especially on days like Cup. Getting .50 on the combos is fine given the payouts.

A simple hybrid approach to the P5 (without layers of coverage with A's and 2 B's for instance) was $189.. The $75 'caveman' ticket of the A's+B's (5x1x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75) and then 5 backup tickets with the C's and A's, another $114:

1: 2-4 with 4 with 8-12-13 with 3-4-10 with 8-11 - $18
2: 6-10 with 2-8 with 8-12-13 with 3-4-10 with 8-11 - $36
3: 6-10 with 4 with 2-7-9 with 3-4-10 with 8-11 - $18
4: 6-10 with 4 with 8-12-13 with 2-6-7-11 with 8-11 - $24
5: 6-10 with 4 with 8-12-13 with 3-4-10 with 1-7 - $18

I hope that explains the concept. When I have opportunity to fully flesh out analysis I do, but time is at an incredible premium for me on Classic Weekends and Breeders' Cup and the grid is the best way I can offer players of all levels my view of the day. I've tried to make it easiest for less experienced players with things like the small budget All A's play. The best way to fully absorb the most comprehensive multi-race approach and build tickets from your opinions (and any one else's feathered in) is to read Crist's book.

Best of luck always,
Steve

jms62 11-07-2016 06:44 AM

Great job this weekend Steve glad to see you score.

philcski 11-07-2016 11:44 AM

Agree that there is no need to press the tickets on the p5, or really even the p4 on most big days... The extra coverage is worth more.

As an example, I pressed my Highland Reel p3 ticket (4 units vs 2 units on Found) but did not press on the (unsuccessful) p4 tickets.


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