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-   -   Weekend Stakes Beyers (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61063)

taxicab 09-30-2016 01:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 1078017)
I'm not the expert you guys are but I have seen some horses over the years that go ballad out every time and others that do enough to win. I certainly won't say for a fact that Songbird would run faster if required to because we don't know. It's just my belief that if it was needed, she has more to offer. I stopped using Beyer numbers years ago so I couldn't tell how she compares on that level to others of the past. It's also clear that her competition is garbage and hasn't pushed her to have to run faster. Can't wait til the Distaff to get more answers. My money is on her to win.
She's a flat out freak,nobody can get near her.
Every single time she runs.......the song remains the same.
She's plenty fast,there's no two ways around it.
There's a time and place for speed figs.......but the numbers aren't relevant with this Filly.
If the word fast is used as some kind of measuring stick with Songbird,then look no further than last years 2 Juvy dirt races on BC Saturday @ Keenland......Songbird ran 5 lengths faster than this years Kentucky Derby winner.
Keep an eye on Chad's nice Filly in the Beldame on Saturday......Go for Broke just ran a distant 2nd to Songbird,she might be decent at a price.

blackthroatedwind 09-30-2016 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 1078021)
Ok. I wish I was allowed to debate or disagree with you but I learned my lesson before.
I love the victim card.

If you want to debate, give some evidence.

Alabama Stakes 09-30-2016 11:16 AM
Can I debate ?
 
Oh

RHT2004 09-30-2016 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1078044)
When calculating ROI .....
Why is one allowed to skip the jump races ?
I'm thinking all races run should be included. Isn't it kind of like excluding maiden claiming races ?
Maybe instead of giving up without a fight, looking at the jumpers from different angles , or even fading yourself, might have been a better way to go about it. The old " I can't pick them so I 'm gonna take my ball and go home" is lame.
Ted Williams played both ends of a doubleheader, choosing not to sit and maintain his .400 avg, finishing at .406.
Sitting out yet another tough Sunday card to preserve that pos ROI ?
I guess having 2 days off instead of one doesn't factor in this success . Maybe the strain of an extra card per week could have taken its toll later in the meet and you might not have got there. When the ROI was lousy last year, how did you put it ? Haters gotta hate ? Not "I stunk" right ?
Positive ROI should be expected, not some huge accomplishment , from someone getting paid to provide winners.
Pretty sure Byk would have a plus ROI anywhere he handicapped, and he does it as a labor of love.
Who cares and why bother posting this? Your literally obsessed with Steve. Its stalker like.

Alabama Stakes 09-30-2016 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1078045)
Who cares and why bother posting this? Your literally obsessed with Steve. Its stalker like.
Just bored, opening day at Santa and the boss releases the late pick 4. My other questions are answerable

Pants II 09-30-2016 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1077853)
DOH Race 1: Alabama Stakes -14 (Hee Haw) Siegfried/Roy
I expected a lower number.

casp0555 09-30-2016 01:27 PM
1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 2658

cakes44 09-30-2016 02:57 PM
This thread could have been epic. Now it's just confusing as hell for anyone reading it for the first time.

RolloTomasi 09-30-2016 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1078067)
This thread could have been epic. Now it's just confusing as hell for anyone reading it for the first time.
The unicorn debate just needs to be kickstarted with some actual examples.

A fairly obvious and recent unicorn was Beholder in last year's Pacific Classic. She had 3 races under her belt, averaging a 98 Beyer while winning handily, then uncorks a 114 BSF romping home in her only 10f while facing males.

Was she "pushed" to run faster? Or is the figure itself a bit of a sham?

blackthroatedwind 09-30-2016 08:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1078149)
The unicorn debate just needs to be kickstarted with some actual examples.

A fairly obvious and recent unicorn was Beholder in last year's Pacific Classic. She had 3 races under her belt, averaging a 98 Beyer while winning handily, then uncorks a 114 BSF romping home in her only 10f while facing males.

Was she "pushed" to run faster? Or is the figure itself a bit of a sham?
What about her race against Stellar Wind? That was the race, unlike the Pacific Classic you mentioned, where she actually needed to run faster ( I won't even use this year's Pacific Classic ). Interestingly enough, she is one of those supposed Unicorns, in that she has never ( save the 2015 Pacific Classic ) been particularly fast, and some of her fans foolishly said she only ran as fast as she had to.

But you know these supposed Unicorns don't really exist. You just want King Glorious to post more for your own perverse entertainment ( and mine as well ).

RolloTomasi 09-30-2016 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1078152)
But you know these supposed Unicorns don't really exist. You just want King Glorious to post more for your own perverse entertainment ( and mine as well ).
I find it very difficult to find these unicorns in the first place. Firstly, the horse has to be a fairly regular winner despite slow speed figures, and secondly it has to step up to the top level and then put up significantly higher figures. Most often, such horses turn out to be pumpkins and simply get exposed.

However, I found one horse who truly fits the Unicorn Model, running only with just enough to win in the majority of its races, and then posting career numbers in its toughest assignments.

That, you no doubt already realize, was Zenyatta, who breeched the 110+ mark in both her BC Classic efforts altering averaging 103 or so in her other races.

Of course, if she had only really been a unicorn she would have won the 2010 Classic by a horn, rather than lost by a head.

Alabama Stakes 09-30-2016 09:21 PM
You'll never get those guys to admit they were wrong about ZENYATTA . They still think easy goer was better than Sunday Silence and that Alydar was better than Affirmed. When Songbird runs away in the distaff in fast time, they will be saying, well she only did it once.

blackthroatedwind 09-30-2016 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1078154)
I find it very difficult to find these unicorns in the first place. Firstly, the horse has to be a fairly regular winner despite slow speed figures, and secondly it has to step up to the top level and then put up significantly higher figures. Most often, such horses turn out to be pumpkins and simply get exposed.

However, I found one horse who truly fits the Unicorn Model, running only with just enough to win in the majority of its races, and then posting career numbers in its toughest assignments.

That, you no doubt already realize, was Zenyatta, who breeched the 110+ mark in both her BC Classic efforts altering averaging 103 or so in her other races.

Of course, if she had only really been a unicorn she would have won the 2010 Classic by a horn, rather than lost by a head.
Right. People always talk about these horses that only do what they have to in order to win...yet there are no examples ( except, as you pointed out, one that lost....who's big fig, by the way, was the result of a deep closer taking advantage of a monster pace that collapsed ).

I'll give you a good one...Bernardini. He was actually legitimately fast. But, he won many races so easily that people said he could go faster if he had to. Ultimately, he couldn't ( though his loss in the BC was also the result of a premature move into a fast pace ). He's like the anti-Zenyatta....he actually had a legitimate excuse for losing the BC Classic. He also ran a whole slew of fast races.

Back to chasing unicorns.

RolloTomasi 09-30-2016 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1078155)
You'll never get those guys to admit they were wrong about ZENYATTA .
To be fair, losing to Blame, a second tier track stalwart, was pretty weak no matter how fast the Beyer was.

Quote:
They still think easy goer was better than Sunday Silence
Neither could beat Criminal Type.

Quote:
When Songbird runs away in the distaff in fast time, they will be saying, well she only did it once.
Songbird still has time to mature (e.g., California Chrome, Tepin), and be faster because of that, rather than not be challenged enough by her peers like some grade school prodigy having to take courses at UCLA to keep interested in schoolwork.

Indian Charlie 09-30-2016 11:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1078155)
You'll never get those guys to admit they were wrong about ZENYATTA
.

Why would you have them admit they are wrong when they aren't? You might as well have them admit to being five year old girls.

Zenyatta is the single most overrated horse I've seen in my thirtyish years watching.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1078155)
They still think easy goer was better than Sunday Silence.
Sunday Silence bested EG 3-1 but one of those (the Preakness) could easily have gone the other way. It is hardly definitive that either was better than the other. By the way, I'd much rather have PVal as a rider than Pat Day.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1078155)
When Songbird runs away in the distaff in fast time, they will be saying, well she only did it once.
Historically speaking, Beholder is hardly one of the greats, so your scenario could easily happen. The Distaff is the race this year that I'd be least surprised to see a major upset in. I think the top runners in there are all vulnerable.

Sightseek 10-06-2016 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1078171)
.

Why would you have them admit they are wrong when they aren't? You might as well have them admit to being five year old girls.

Zenyatta is the single most overrated horse I've seen in my thirtyish years watching.




Sunday Silence bested EG 3-1 but one of those (the Preakness) could easily have gone the other way. It is hardly definitive that either was better than the other. By the way, I'd much rather have PVal as a rider than Pat Day.




Historically speaking, Beholder is hardly one of the greats, so your scenario could easily happen. The Distaff is the race this year that I'd be least surprised to see a major upset in. I think the top runners in there are all vulnerable.
I thought you had a gf? :p


How is Stellar Wind vulnerable?

King Glorious 11-06-2016 10:52 AM
Curious revisit this subject. My opinion is that when asked to go all out, Songbird went faster than she ever has. Just wasn't good enough to beat Beholder.

Maybe the discussion before should have been not that they will run faster if asked but rather, if allowed to.


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