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-   -   3/12 (TAM): TB Derby, Hillsborough (G2's), FL Oaks (G3), Challenger (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59690)

RHT2004 03-11-2016 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1059019)
Just took a quick look at it. Looks like should be quick pace but that usually means one horse will go all the way. Tepin looks tough here. I think the 1 horse looks sneaky on the rail and 3 horse could be coming if the pace gets cooking. FYI happy bday.
The 1 would be my 3rd use if I decided to totally toss Tepin. I thought she had a chance.
Thanks for the hbd.

RHT2004 03-11-2016 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1059030)
Joe I wish there was something more insightful to say, but I can't see anything in here beating Tepin, short of a major regression + a huge move up by someone else.

If I had to play against, I would take a flyer with Josie Caroll's entry - Button Down, on the hope that firm grass moves her up (we simply don't know), that she can lay closer (I personally do not see the front end rush predicted here - I think the 1 is clearly controlling speed), and that Tepin has some trouble.

Failing that, everybody is running for second place here.
I could see a situation like the Diane last year. Fast pace, Tepin has to attack it and gets nailed late. 9f feels like a bit of an equalizer.

Rudeboyelvis 03-12-2016 08:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1059048)
I could see a situation like the Diane last year. Fast pace, Tepin has to attack it and gets nailed late. 9f feels like a bit of an equalizer.
It's a fair assessment. My only rebut is the quality of the Diana and the Balston Spa last summer towers over these. There isn't much in here. Ball Dancing would need a freakish career best off 9 months on the bench to match Tepin in terms of raw speed.

No one else comes close, save for Button Down who could actually be the real deal, or if Johnny V can put them all to sleep on the front and steal it (which I cannot logically see happening).

-BT- 03-12-2016 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1059030)
Joe I wish there was something more insightful to say, but I can't see anything in here beating Tepin, short of a major regression + a huge move up by someone else.

If I had to play against, I would take a flyer with Josie Caroll's entry - Button Down, on the hope that firm grass moves her up (we simply don't know), that she can lay closer (I personally do not see the front end rush predicted here - I think the 1 is clearly controlling speed), and that Tepin has some trouble.

Failing that, everybody is running for second place here.
not that i think she will lose, but this is NOT her best distance....thought Motion's horse was worth a second look

-bt-

cakes44 03-12-2016 04:18 PM
Solid effort by the #1 vs Tepin. Zero running whatsoever by any of the other contenders.

Rudeboyelvis 03-12-2016 04:31 PM
The only way Johnny V had to go. Track record for Tepin. What a horse.

Rudeboyelvis 03-12-2016 04:53 PM
On a day where the track has been anything but speed favoring, the run Outwork put in was stellar in defeat. Taking nothing at all away from Destin who not only broke he stakes record, but broke the track record for a 1 1/16th.

RHT2004 03-12-2016 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1059205)
On a day where the track has been anything but speed favoring, the run Outwork put in was stellar in defeat. Taking nothing at all away from Destin who not only broke he stakes record, but broke the track record for a 1 1/16th.
Destin is hard to figure out. Very professional 1st time out. Then 2 duds. Does he just love Tampa? I thought Outwork ran huge.

Rudeboyelvis 03-12-2016 08:23 PM
It's always been a conundrum. Clearly TAP knew either he didn't take to GP or was never going to be competitive there.

There is no denying the effort, but I've got to go back to Outwork's bid. Nothing held here all day long. Nothing. To last like he did against a severe bias, against a fairly seasoned charge who already had a stakes victory over the track was pretty remarkable.

My hope is that they take their time with him. And they will, I'm certain of it.

I wish I could get Travers' Futures.

RHT2004 03-12-2016 08:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1059250)
It's always been a conundrum. Clearly TAP knew either he didn't take to GP or was never going to be competitive there.

There is no denying the effort, but I've got to go back to Outwork's bid. Nothing held here all day long. Nothing. To last like he did against a severe bias, against a fairly seasoned charge who already had a stakes victory over the track was pretty remarkable.

My hope is that they take their time with him. And they will, I'm certain of it.

I wish I could get Travers' Futures.
No doubt. I think everything you said before the race turned out to be spot on. Well done. I'm sold on him.


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