There really is not a bad choice or a wrong choice. All are world records and each is the best it’s ever been done. The majority opinion seems to be that Secretariat, Fager, or Spectacular Bid holds the most impressive record. My own opinion is that Super Red holds the most impressive performance and it is really not that close per my view. Following are the reasons for my conclusion:
Point 1 – Purely Mathematical
The link below shows a chart of the average pace (seconds-per-furlong) for the standing world records between 6fl and 16fl. The curve fit line shows the expected WR average pace based on all the data points. This curve follows a natural log function as most empirical measurements in the natural world tend to do (thus the derivation of natural logs). The graph on the right side is amplified to illustrate the difference between Bid and Red as per the expected record pace. Red is fast by 0.475% while Bid is fast by 0.311%. Dr Fager’s time falls precisely on the expected world record pace for a mile. So based purely on a mathematical basis, Secretariat has the most unusual time.
http://i100.photobucket.com/albums/m...at/wr_pace.jpg
Point 2 – Time and Win Margin
Time and margin of victory tend to validate each other. If you see a fast time with a narrow win margin, it’s a good bet that the track is playing very fast, especially if there are two or more horses finishing close to the victor. If you see a fast time with a large win margin, then the odds are that the horse generated an outstanding performance. Per this line of thinking, Secretariat broke the existing 12fl Belmont Park record by a whopping 2.6 seconds and won by an equally astounding 31 lengths suggesting an absolutely amazing performance, otherwise, the margin of victory would have been much smaller if the time was due primarily to a supped-up track. Bid broke the Santa Anita 10fl track record by an impressive 0.8 seconds and won by 3.5 lengths which indicates that the place horse also broke the track record. This suggests that the track was probably playing very fast.
Dr Fager broke the 1 mile record at Arlington Park by 0.4 seconds and won by 10 lengths, thereby validating the time with a large margin of victory. He was also toting 134lbs which adds to the magnitude of the feat. Accounting for weight is a difficult proposition. The old standard use to be 2lbs = 1 length. An Australian study I read stated that 1.5 kilograms (3.3lbs) = 1 length at a distance of 1 mile. Another study I found suggested that weight actually aided some horses in deep stretch via an added momentum factor (I don’t buy this myself). A famous trainer once stated that weight does not matter much unless the impost exceeds 127 lbs for males and 123 for females. Also, the size of the horse makes a difference as to how well a horse carries weight. (Old Forego didn’t mind weight at all.) Based on all these varying opinions, I’ve concluded that 2.5lbs = 1 length at weights above 127lbs. This relationship suggests that Fager may be credited with (134-127) 7 lbs = 2.8 lengths (7/2.5) = 0.47 seconds (1 second = 6 lengths) running time. This means that Fager broke the track record by the equivalent of 0.87 seconds with a 10 length margin of victory. This result is more impressive than Bid’s mark, but no where near Secretariat’s performance.
Point 3 – Speed Figures
Dr Quirin and Andrew Beyer both published that Secretariat’s Belmont (148 originally, later adjusted down to 138 on the current Beyer scale) remains the highest ever figure awarded. That’s good enough for me.
Point 4 – Age
3yos are not supposed to beat older horses. The 4&up group typically improve their running times by an average of 4 lengths (10fl ref distance) as compared to their 3yo run times. The fact that Secretariat put up such an amazing WR mark as an early summer 3yo just adds to his legend. Here is a bit of trivia for you folks…Secretariat is the youngest horse ever to break the 2 minute mark going 10fl on the dirt…1:59:2, Ky Derby…3yrs,36days. There have been a slim few 3yos and many older horses to run sub 2 minute times, mostly on the typically fast west coast tracks, but none as young as Red.
Point 5 – Other Considerations
The fact that Red ran his WR time in the third leg of the TC races makes it all the more amazing…10fl in 1:59:2, 9.5fl in 1:53:2, and 12fl in 2:24:0 all in a span of 5 weeks at three different tracks pretty much speaks for itself. Just winning the TC is nearly impossible, but to break all three track records is simply astounding and will never happen again.
Grass times should never be compared to dirt times. The break point is 6.5fl. At distances greater than 6.5fl, grass races are faster. At distances less than 6.5fl, dirt races are faster.
