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-   -   American Pharoah with authority (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57286)

DonGuido 05-16-2015 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Runningincircles (Post 1027435)
You guys are far more of the experts, but what I liked about AP's performance today was that he hustled out of the gate when asked, settled when asked (really just loping along), and then fired when asked. His ears were active, "listening" to the Espinosa in the stretch with a hand ride. He looked remarkably "happy" for a horse running in horrible conditions.

Agree 150% with everything you saw and said, he did everything that a champion race horse is supposed to do when his jockey asked him to. He ran an excellent race but I will say the rain and sloppy conditions didn't hurt his performance. I think he relished it.

So far I ask, who has he really beat? Is there a horse out there that's close to or worthy of giving him a real test. We may see in 3 weeks and/or on down the road but so much can change and happen . . .

Look, he has done little, if anything, wrong in his young racing career, and some already said here . . . let's enjoy him and I add get behind him in force and cheer him and connections on (who are also awesome horse people) and truly hope we are all not disappointed one more time.

Runningincircles 05-16-2015 10:51 PM

Yes, the next test is whether he can run just as "happily" for a mile and a half. And we can hope that Baffert and Espinosa have learned lessons from their past "almosts."

Arletta 05-16-2015 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1027437)
Agree 150% with everything you saw and said, he did everything that a champion race horse is supposed to do when his jockey asked him to. He ran an excellent race but I will say the rain and sloppy conditions didn't hurt his performance. I think he relished it.

So far I ask, who has he really beat? Is there a horse out there that's close to or worthy of giving him a real test. We may see in 3 weeks and/or on down the road but so much can change and happen . . .

Look, he has done little, if anything, wrong in his young racing career, and some already said here . . . let's enjoy him and I add get behind him in force and cheer him and connections on (who are also awesome horse people) and truly hope we are all not disappointed one more time.

I think I would be more apt to do this if he were trained/owned by anyone other than who he is. I can't stand them.

geeker2 05-16-2015 11:08 PM

I for one, Am so excited for the prospect of a TC winner this year. I think we might just see it and that gives be a Boner :D




..............and Baba Booey to y'all

DonGuido 05-16-2015 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 1027439)
I think I would be more apt to do this if he were trained/owned by anyone other than who he is. I can't stand them.

Arletta, ya knows I how much luvs ya but this may be the first time we differ widely . . . but that's OK. It's about the horse and horse racing. If AP wins the Triple Crown, who's picture will be on the cover of all the media/new papers (do they still exist), and magazines? I rest my case. :)

DonGuido 05-16-2015 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2 (Post 1027440)
I for one, Am so excited for the prospect of a TC winner this year. I think we might just see it and that gives be a Boner :



..............and Baba Booey to y'all

:D Chill my friend, relax . . . 3 weeks to go and if he does win, I can't imagine what you'll feel like?:eek::zz:;)

horseofcourse 05-16-2015 11:35 PM

The closest comps to this horse recently are Smarty Jones and Big Brown. I honestly don't think American Pharoah's Ky Derby/Preakness performances are as good as those two and those two appeared to absolutely tower over their class. Things tend to happen at Belmont Park as horses attempt to win the triple crown. Right now I'd put his chances at less than 20 percent chance to win that race. I think many of the last 13 who have tried it in the last 37 years are better than American Pharoah and they all failed. I hope I'm wrong as I'd like to see it done again.

geeker2 05-16-2015 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1027442)
:D Chill my friend, relax . . . 3 weeks to go and if he does win, I can't imagine what you'll feel like?:eek::zz:;)

I'll feel like Sightypoo and Deb-o-Deb riding the sybian........

LITF 05-17-2015 01:32 AM

I'd put his chances at about 20%. Other than Materiality it doesn't appear (at this point) to be much speed in the race (though maybe Carpe Diem shows more). We do still have three weeks so who knows who ends up showing up. I think 20% means he has a huge chance of winning but it's still a long way out and anyway I'll be playing against the potential triple crown aspirant. I do think, after last year, Victor puts him on the lead and we'll see how long he lasts. I'm sure he'll get run down late, maybe he doesn't even hit the board, but, still, who cares. The important part for the game is that he makes it there in tact (knock on wood). It's going to be a great day...and if he does win it...well, ****, it's going to be nuts and rightfully so.

As for the crop suddenly being subpar, that's just embarrassing. I was pumped to see Firing Line and Dortmund throw down with AP in the stretch again but clearly Mother Nature was rooting for the Pharaoh. (Tale of Verve won't finish anywhere near the board in the Belmont) Anyway, they'll regroup and win there share of races. Hopefully we see them back at in the summer/fall. (Calling it now, Dortmund will win the Haskell) I still think this crop is one of the best we've seen and wouldn't be surprised if those two have something to say in the BCC at the end of the year.

Don't get caught up in the time. It doesn't mean anything. That race was fantastic today! Just what we needed. Thank God AP handled the slop. On to Belmont...where Frosted will win, spoiling another crown bid...but who cares. All that matters is that we head to Belmont with the chance. The result is irrelevant.

jms62 05-17-2015 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1027425)
Agree 150%. Who cares about the time. Are horses sent out to set records or win races under conditions? If I had a thoroughbred time would only matter in training as training goes. If I have a horse that knows how to win under most any conditions, the time her or she sets to win is irrelevant.

Pharohs opponents couldnt come within 7 lengths of the slowest time since 1955 let that sink in for a second when you say time doesnt matter.

santana 05-17-2015 07:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 1027439)
I think I would be more apt to do this if he were trained/owned by anyone other than who he is. I can't stand them.


It is a little surprising to me that you have something against one of the best trainers of all time.....:zz:

declansharbor 05-17-2015 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 1027439)
I think I would be more apt to do this if he were trained/owned by anyone other than who he is. I can't stand them.

If the connections ever read any of your posts from Clyde/Mortimer/whoever the weirdo is, I'm sure they'd be THRILLED to hear of your distaste.

ElPrado 05-17-2015 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 1027423)
It was the slowest Preakness since 1956 :wf

Good god! The horses needed water wings and you wanted them to set records? They needed life preservers!
Can you run in ankle deep water as fast as you can on dry pavement? If that was wet fast I'm scared to see what mud looks like there. They would be sinking to their withers.

knickslions2 05-17-2015 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 1027460)
If the connections ever read any of your posts from Clyde/Mortimer/whoever the weirdo is, I'm sure they'd be THRILLED to hear of your distaste.

:tro:

freddymo 05-17-2015 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027414)
What about AP makes him so vulnerable to ridiculous criticism?


He's speed crazy and won't rate, he is too slow and will have traffic problems.

He's overrated. He has perfect trips. The race was handed to him. He doesn't beat anyone that's good, he won't face tough competition next time out, etc.

Why aren't people appreciating a spectacular horse?

This really might just be a truly once in a blue moon horse. Enjoy him. They are rare.

If this was Phipps colt it would be the second coming of Messiah.. Its a colt owned and operated by newbies who have been extremely successful and lucky in what is an impossible business to win at

Travis Stone 05-17-2015 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1027436)
Who cares about the critics, nothing will silence them . . . it's what they get paid for or satisfy there ego for. Mr. Z got what he deserved. He ran the best race of his life and it was for noting. BTW- I disagree, Mr. Z was sent (going) as hard as Mr. Z could go notta . . . don't believe otherwise. You can't believe Nakatani was holding him back can you?

Not quite. He earned $45,000 for finishing 5th and beat the Derby runner-up. If you ran this race 100 times, perhaps he does better. And what did he deserve exactly? To be vanned-off?

DonGuido 05-17-2015 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027463)
If this was Phipps colt it would be the second coming of Messiah.. Its a colt owned and operated by newbies who have been extremely successful and lucky in what is an impossible business to win at

I think you're a year late with this post. Oh well, you know what opinions are like. Everybody has one. Then again that's what this place is all about.

DonGuido 05-17-2015 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1027450)
Pharohs opponents couldnt come within 7 lengths of the slowest time since 1955 let that sink in for a second when you say time doesnt matter.

Time doesn't matter, again, unless you want to put your time figs in the record book to be forgotten except by people like you. What matters is winning races, especially the big ones. And for that matter with your logic . . . then how poorly did the others run, although many likely just hated the rain, the slop and/or the track while one loved everything about and romped. That's why we call it horse racing.

fpsoxfan 05-17-2015 08:52 AM

I watched the race with my son and his friend, who are both 20. They have really taken to the game. They are excited about possibly seeing a triple crown.
I explained to them that I was 9 years old when the last time we had a triple crown winner. This is just one reason why the American Pharoah story is great. We are getting younger people in the game, by drawing attention to what greatness in this game really is. I'm looking forward to June 6th!!!! Plus it's my wifes birthday.

DonGuido 05-17-2015 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 1027464)
Not quite. He earned $45,000 for finishing 5th and beat the Derby runner-up. If you ran this race 100 times, perhaps he does better. And what did he deserve exactly? To be vanned-off?

I should have said Wayne Lukas got what he deserved for his ignorant reason for entering him in the first place.


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