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-   -   And The Winner Of The Belmont is........ (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57179)

RHT2004 05-04-2015 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1025822)
Sal actually thinks Keen Ice ran a great race, considering the 'super slow' pace of the Derby.

That's nonsensical, of course.

He is one of the very good handicappers I speak of. I dont get how speed figure guys can like this horse. Top beyer 88 coming in a race where the horse who won has the same running style as him. A horse some of those same top handicappers said was to slow to win the Derby. How can you knock International Star and then tout Keen Ice?

Max 05-04-2015 04:40 PM

If someone can beat American Pharoah I think it will be Materiality. BIG trip in the Derby.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2015 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1025825)
He is one of the very good handicappers I speak of. I dont get how speed figure guys can like this horse. Top beyer 88 coming in a race where the horse who won has the same running style as him. A horse some of those same top handicappers said was to slow to win the Derby. How can you knock International Star and then tout Keen Ice?

Yeah, it makes no sense at all man.

I think he got too cute with himself. He's had some good scores in the past using that line of reasoning, but unlike most other years, this crop is more top heavy in talented runners, so I believe it's a lot harder for a slow clunk up type of runner to clunk up for a piece.

RolloTomasi 05-04-2015 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1025825)
A horse some of those same top handicappers said was to slow to win the Derby. How can you knock International Star and then tout Keen Ice?

The Belmont is a different race. Loads of "too slow" horses have won the Belmont.

RHT2004 05-04-2015 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1025829)
Yeah, it makes no sense at all man.

I think he got too cute with himself. He's had some good scores in the past using that line of reasoning, but unlike most other years, this crop is more top heavy in talented runners, so I believe it's a lot harder for a slow clunk up type of runner to clunk up for a piece.


If I had used him or keyed him underneath like some people did. The one beef I would have is where were the 1 and 3 early? With Stanford scratching you had to expect them up on the pace. Especially if you bet a plodder like Keen Ice. You needed the race to collapse.

RHT2004 05-04-2015 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1025830)
The Belmont is a different race. Loads of "too slow" horses have won the Belmont.

Has a horse ever won the Belmont w/ a top beyer of 88 going in? I don't know for sure, but I doubt it. In a crop where horses are routinely running 100 plus beyers.

RolloTomasi 05-04-2015 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1025833)
Has a horse ever won the Belmont w/ a top beyer of 88 going in? I don't know for sure, but I doubt it. In a crop where horses are routinely running 100 plus beyers.

Ruler On Ice

Indian Charlie 05-04-2015 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1025835)
Ruler On Ice

Your comedy routine is definitely on the improve!

tanner12oz 05-04-2015 05:52 PM

Distance doesn't help closers

RolloTomasi 05-04-2015 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz (Post 1025837)
Distance doesn't help closers

Keen Ice isn't much of a closer, so that axiom shouldn't hurt him.

But if he is a stayer, the distance could help him.

The trainer ran a similar horse last year in the Belmont, Medal Count, and he ran third at nearly 30-1, besting American Chrome.

RHT2004 05-04-2015 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1025841)
Keen Ice isn't much of a closer, so that axiom shouldn't hurt him.

But if he is a stayer, the distance could help him.

The trainer ran a similar horse last year in the Belmont, Medal Count, and he ran third at nearly 30-1, besting American Chrome.


What is Keen Ice then?
Look at his pps he has never showed any early speed at all. He would be the definition of a closer.

Kitan 05-04-2015 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1025845)
What is Keen Ice then?
Look at his pps he has never showed any early speed at all. He would be the definition of a closer.

He's a one-paced plodder who passes tired horses. I probably wouldn't bet him to win the Belmont.

alysheba4 05-04-2015 07:00 PM

Getting ahead of our selfs because if AP loses the Preakness he won't be in New York. I hope frosted and materiality go in the Preakness. Will box those two horses. Think AP and FL won't recover in 2weeks:confused:

munster705 05-05-2015 01:22 PM

I do not understand how people are saying Keen Ice did not run a good derby. He was thje only horse from the back moving forwadr at all the 2nd half of the race. If there was enough pace early, he would have been in the running at the end. He is bred to run all day albeit maybe not su fast, but he won't be backing up at 1.5 miles. He is an interesting horse to look out for it really all I was going for with the first post.....

ateamstupid 05-05-2015 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705 (Post 1025945)
I do not understand how people are saying Keen Ice did not run a good derby. He was thje only horse from the back moving forwadr at all the 2nd half of the race. If there was enough pace early, he would have been in the running at the end. He is bred to run all day albeit maybe not su fast, but he won't be backing up at 1.5 miles. He is an interesting horse to look out for it really all I was going for with the first post.....

Not true. Materiality and Frosted were both moving late too, the former with a horrific trip.

DonGuido 05-05-2015 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman (Post 1025795)
I'm amazed that People are trying to pick the winner of the Belmont a little less than two weeks before the Preakness has been run.

Way too much idle time on their hands. Me, I'm using my idle time figuring out how I can do more "red boarding" on the Preakness since now I know what turns everyone on here. :p: cool:

DonGuido 05-05-2015 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705 (Post 1025945)
I do not understand how people are saying Keen Ice did not run a good derby. He was thje only horse from the back moving forwadr at all the 2nd half of the race. If there was enough pace early, he would have been in the running at the end. He is bred to run all day albeit maybe not su fast, but he won't be backing up at 1.5 miles. He is an interesting horse to look out for it really all I was going for with the first post.....

Errrrr maybe all the rest except the top lead 3 or 4 were backing up, ya think??? And I don't get what he's proved to date to deserve these lukewarm accolades. If your basing this on breeding and the Derby . . . foughedaboudit.

cakes44 05-05-2015 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1025791)
Yep. Ice Box, Denis of Cork, Dullahan, Commanding Curve, etc. The only somewhat recent horse I remember pulling off the Kentucky Derby close/Belmont win double is Jazil.

I know he didn't win, but didn't DoC run a legit 2nd in the Belmont?


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