Well that would make it a very special day indeed!

I guess anything's possible, if Monarchos could come close, I assume Bernardini could, but he had trouble breaking 2:00 in a 1 turn 1 1/4 on a fast track and no one knows how he's going to fair against some pressure, to automatically assume he can go faster is rediculous...Also, a super fast track would favor Lava Man...

Chances are it will be raining on BCC day. It's that time of year.

Bernardini retort #53....:confused:

Once again, this appears to be an amazing animal, but let's let him earn his coronation. Only three more weeks, then we can officially shower him with superlatives. In three weeks, if he runs away from Lava Man and Invasor among others, then there will be no disputing his enormous talent. Besides, there is no use in jumping on the bandwagon now because you're just siding with the obvious.

However, he hasn't matched Ghostzapper's or Formal Gold's figures yet, much less a Secretariat/ Spectacular Bid type track record. It's the apparent ease with which Bernie moves that really has forwarded his reputation, but who is to say he picks up another couple of lengths if they put the whip on him? With his current figures, he's a length or two better than Invasor and LM and somewhere in the range with Skip Away and Point Given. An advantage for sure, but not exactly an insurmountable advantage considering you'll get 3 or 4 times better odds on the others. Now I'm sure somebody sat back and tried to figure how to beat Secretariat in 1973, so this may be an exercise in futility. There's no value in a losing play.

Why is this irreponsible journalism? Hes just trying to get the public pumped up about a very special horse whos only flaw is not beating anybody, if you call that a flaw. Horses have been avoiding him and now they must finally face him in the Classic, hence the Classic may be his defining moment. I think everything written here is pretty accurate. While I wont be betting him or rooting for him in the BC Classic, I still appreicate this horse and its very possible he is the greatest horse to have ever run. Whos to say otherwise? I wouldnt judge his races by times, lengths of the wins or who hes beaten. Bernardini runs fast enough to win vs the competition (if you call it that).

I do want to say that I agree with the other part of your post but this statement is completely false. " value " in wagering is totally unrelated to whether or not you win or lose. As the simplest example, if you give me 2-1 on heads coming up in a coin flip, even if it's tails, I made a value bet. The point of " value " is that, assuming you truly have it, over time you WILL make money and individual events are irrelevent.

I think it is irresponsible to pretend something happened that didn't. Sorry, but I find a lot of what I have read about Bernardini to bear little resemblence to reality. Wanting a horse to be good is fine, but pretending one has done something it hasn't, for the sake of drama, is irresponsible. That is what is going on in this article...IMO.

Value is certainly not betting a 4/5 horse to win, however there can be very good value with that horse on top in an exacta.

First off, the sheets SHOULD trump Beyer's figs, considering the cost. And I would agree their grass numbers do. But the Sheets and T-Graph have their own issues; taking into account weight and wind but leaving out far more important variables such as pace and bias. A horse running in the 4 path on a dead rail/good outside track gets extra credit due to ground loss, when in fact they are getting an ideal trip.

As for Bris, I've heard a very neutral observer, Jerry Brown, state that those were the most worthless figs of all.

Um....no. There could easily be a 4:5 shot that is " value " ( what if Bernardini had been 4:5 in the JCGC ).

" Value " is anything where the odds you are receiving are greater than the ACTUAL odds of the event occuring. Obviously this doesn't happen a lot in horse racing, due mostly to the takeout and partially to the efficiency of the betting pools, but it is can happen though its provability in racing is nebulous at best.

I happen to agree with Jerry on this point ( and with you on yours )....but how could he possibly be considered a " neutral observer " in this discussion?

Sure it is, if you think the horse is 1/5 to win. I'm not ever going to do it (i'd rather play the goddamn slots than bet 4/5 shots all day), but if you have $100,000 lying around and you can get an 80% return on what you believe to be an 80% proposition, you take it every time.

HA! impeccable timing... my thoughts exactly.

I should clarify, he was talking specifically about Bris and Beyer figs. I guess maybe he isn't totally neutral, but I don't think he had any motive to say one was better than the other.

The problem most people face is the number of trials... they either (a) don't have the proper bankroll for the number of trials required, or (b) don't play enough races WITH an advantage versus WITHOUT (myself included.)

90% of people that go to the track don't understand this concept anyways. A couple times a day at tracks with solid but lesser handle (Monmouth, Md, etc.) you'll see an exacta combination wayyyyy overbet leaving opportunity in other probable combinations. I'll say i'm betting the 5-6 combo even though i don't necessarily prefer either of them over my selection because the exacta's paying $50 for a buck when it should be $15. It invariable the comment comes up following, "well if you don't like them, why bet them??"

I agree with this snipe. Any Beyer fig is +/- 4 points even if calculated with no preconceived notion of what fits the race or the horse. Unfortunately, politically correct figs are becoming prevalent nowdays. Want to see an example? Look closely at Bernardini and Henny Hughes last Saturday. HH ran the faster race relative to 6fl than Bern did relative to 10fl. HH got a 113, Bern got a 117 and there was no evidence to support a split variant.

Bernie has run in soft spots.

Yup, they looked at the calendar and said 'let's find the softest spots out there to race him' and they came up with the Preakness, Jim Dandy, Traver's and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. :rolleyes:

Those races came up soft.