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-   -   How would a Chrome TC win affect breeding/bloodstock? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54135)

Indian Charlie 06-02-2014 04:03 PM
It would also cause record sales of maxi pads.

parsixfarms 06-02-2014 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 981118)
Andy Beyer just wrote a column on exactly this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...499_story.html

I don't necessarily agree with this, principally the contention that his case would be bolstered had Lucky Pulpit produced a few more graded stakes winners. The reality is that through 2013 - 2014, as a sire LP has a total of 102 runners on the track. Mostly all of which are out of modest, at best, CA bred mares.
I don't think there is any argument that CC's mare was cheap, but there are a lot of mares that never ran, which in turn were highly productive broodmares (I don't think Zenyatta's mare was anything special on the track for instance).
With CC being a first foal and Lucky Pulpit's books being thin in quality, there is enough of a wildcard to assume taking a chance on both with some decent quality broodmare stock, even if only for 2 or 3 seasons. I'd say his value, should he win the Belmont, could be assessed north of 30 million dollars, and is why most assume that he won't ever run again should he pull it off.
Good article by Beyer. Best comparison that I can think of is Tiznow, and he was from a dam that had produced other good horses before him (such as Budroyale), unlike dam of California Chrome. Tiznow's first year stud fee was $30,000.

Danzig 06-02-2014 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 981124)
Smarty Jones was a son of a pretty fashionable sire in Elusive Quality, who was standing in his own right for about $50,000 back by 2004 (ultimately going up to $100,000 before sliding back down). That is a huge difference from Lucky Pulpit.
oh, i know it. i figured every one knew it which is why i didn't go into that.

geeker2 06-02-2014 04:37 PM
Chrome & Zenyatta :{>:

Dawgswin 06-02-2014 04:55 PM
Forgive me for not addressing the question posed, but if there is a secondary consequence to a successful bid by Chrome, my hope is that it trickles toward some of my employees.

Since I'm the only person (I assume anywhere) they know who follows racing, I'm backing Chrome simply so that they will stop talking to me about it. This morning someone asked if the connections were going to pull out of the Belmont since "he can't wear his nose thingy."

Last Thursday before a meeting someone asked if California Cruiser (sic) had won the Triple Crown yet.

Perhaps I am not doing my part to grow appreciation of the game, but it has been pretty irritating.

Thoroughbred Fan 06-03-2014 09:56 AM
If he wins the Belmont, my best guess is that he'd be worth about $20M and stand initially for $62,500.

He'll have to produce big sales numbers from his first two books or he'll be standing in PA for $20,000 before his his second crop hits the track. From there, he'll need to produce runners to stay in that $20-25k range or it's a boat ride to a new country for him.

senator L 06-03-2014 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead (Post 981096)
on breeding and sales in the future..the moneyball-esk breeding and non normal route .farm vs big sales ring ie keeneland or fasig route..36 years of huge money and the proper way of doing things or at least the historic way..may be put on its head on saturday..any thoughts?
They'll keep racing him after a two month break. I don't
think the decision will come until the end of his 3 yr old season. If he keeps winning races they get the cash and his stock keeps rising. These guys are smart!

Frost King 06-03-2014 12:07 PM
And if he loses, after winning the Triple Crown against run of the mill older horses his value will go down. What people fail to realize, you could have the fastest donkey in the world. That is faster than any thoroughbred, you would still not breed to the donkey. Breeding is about percentages. The chance that California Chrome has these genes out of his parents is one in one million chance, that everything aligned itself right up. Just look at Empire Maker, he was a stallion prospect before he was even weaned because of his dam, and the siblings he has. California Chrome, could be the breeding version of the Green Monkey. Which big farm, in today's economy is going to risk, that kind of money on a horse that has outlier genes, to pass on? It is a nice story, not matter how you dress the pig, it is still a pig.

Rudeboyelvis 06-03-2014 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frost King (Post 981233)
And if he loses, after winning the Triple Crown against run of the mill older horses his value will go down. What people fail to realize, you could have the fastest donkey in the world. That is faster than any thoroughbred, you would still not breed to the donkey. Breeding is about percentages. The chance that California Chrome has these genes out of his parents is one in one million chance, that everything aligned itself right up. Just look at Empire Maker, he was a stallion prospect before he was even weaned because of his dam, and the siblings he has. California Chrome, could be the breeding version of the Green Monkey. Which big farm, in today's economy is going to risk, that kind of money on a horse that has outlier genes, to pass on? It is a nice story, not matter how you dress the pig, it is still a pig.
He is the first foal out of a Not For Love mare, and by a stallion that's never seen quality breeding stock and still manages to throw decent cal-breds.

So the argument about percentages goes out the window when you peel it back, doesn't it?
I agree with IC that he is really the tallest pigmy of this crop, but I don't necessarily buy the argument that he won't be successful stallion because he doesn't possess commercial bloodlines.

freddymo 06-03-2014 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 981138)
Good article by Beyer. Best comparison that I can think of is Tiznow, and he was from a dam that had produced other good horses before him (such as Budroyale), unlike dam of California Chrome. Tiznow's first year stud fee was $30,000.
I think Japan is a very logical spot especially if he wins Belmont.


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